Week 11 NFL Player Prop Bets: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen

Nov 17, 2024

Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Week 10 was a strange one. We won a few plays we probably should have lost and lost a few plays we probably should have won. Part of my weekly process is going through plays I made, deciding if the actual reasoning held up, and understanding whether I need to adjust anything. I obviously won’t make any major adjustments based on one week of results, but on a player-basis and more specific analysis, it’s important to grasp which parts of the handicap were correct. Enough macro-betting talk; let’s dive into the results.

Week 10 Recap (4-4, -1.10 units)

Lamar Jackson U51.5 rushing Yards
Sam Darnold U31.5 pass attempts
Tim Patrick U 22.5 receiving yards
Kendrick Bourne U2.5 receptions
Cooper Rush U20.5 completions
Courtland Sutton U50.5 receiving yards
Tyreek Hill O 74.5 receiving yards
Christian McCaffrey U14.5 carries
Calvin Ridley U4.5 receptions

I was in attendance this weekend at the Bears-Patriots game. Outside of it being the worst professional sporting event I have ever attended, it really pissed me off not seeing Kendrick Bourne play a snap. After playing over 70% last week, I speculated he might see less usage this week based on coachspeak and other factors. He didn’t play a single snap and was just standing on the sidelines with his helmet on, bouncing around, getting pumped up for his teammates. Great guy, good teammate, but apparently doesn’t respect coin. Jokes aside, that actually sucked.

Tim Patrick was a sweat-free winner, and Cooper Rush was benched, like we speculated was possible. I got very lucky on CMC’s under because he saw nearly all of the RB carries in his first game back; the Niners were just trailing for a good portion of the game. Calvin Ridley busted his under on the Titans' last offensive play, which really stung. It took 9 targets for him to get there as he strung together his most efficient day with Will Levis at QB this season. Sam Darnold and the Vikings surprisingly struggled for a large majority of the game, forcing a season-high in pass attempts.

What frustrated me most about last week was I had multiple plays I had written down as possible plays and never bet or released. All of them won, of course. Anyways, time to get back on track for Week 11!

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Week 11 Player Prop Bets

Jameson Williams over 44.5 receiving yards (-115 at DK)

Dan Campbell wasn't lying when he said that Jameson would just be thrown back into the lineup. He ran a route on 80% of dropbacks and saw over a 20% target share. He now gets a great matchup against the Jaguars and the Lions will likely be without Sam LaPorta. Jameson had already kind of pushed LaPorta down the pecking order in multiple games but now has an even bigger opportunity here. Jameson has 53+ yards in 5-of-7 games this season and in games with a snap rate above 80% has 121, 79, and 80 receiving yards. On top of opportunity, the Jags are 28th in dropback success rate, and dead last in dropback EPA per play. The Jags have periodically played incredibly high rates of man coverage. This lines up perfectly for Williams who has averaged 4.34 yards per route against man. Even if they don't play too much man, Rich Hribar nailed it in his column:

"The Jaguars have allowed a 54.5% catch rate to wide receivers on deep throws this season, 31st in the league.

No team has allowed more yards (665) to wide receivers on deep throws than Jacksonville."

This was originally released at 41.5 at FD in the discord

Risk 0.25 units on 70+ yards at +265 at FD

Risk 0.1 units on 90+ yards at +530 at FD

Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit