Week 11 NFL Player Prop Bets: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen

Nov 14, 2024

Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Week 10 was a strange one. We won a few plays we probably should have lost and lost a few plays we probably should have won. Part of my weekly process is going through plays I made, deciding if the actual reasoning held up, and understanding whether I need to adjust anything. I obviously won’t make any major adjustments based on one week of results, but on a player-basis and more specific analysis, it’s important to grasp which parts of the handicap were correct. Enough macro-betting talk; let’s dive into the results.

Week 10 Recap (4-4, -1.10 units)

Lamar Jackson U51.5 rushing Yards
Sam Darnold U31.5 pass attempts
Tim Patrick U 22.5 receiving yards
Kendrick Bourne U2.5 receptions
Cooper Rush U20.5 completions
Courtland Sutton U50.5 receiving yards
Tyreek Hill O 74.5 receiving yards
Christian McCaffrey U14.5 carries
Calvin Ridley U4.5 receptions

I was in attendance this weekend at the Bears-Patriots game. Outside of it being the worst professional sporting event I have ever attended, it really pissed me off not seeing Kendrick Bourne play a snap. After playing over 70% last week, I speculated he might see less usage this week based on coachspeak and other factors. He didn’t play a single snap and was just standing on the sidelines with his helmet on, bouncing around, getting pumped up for his teammates. Great guy, good teammate, but apparently doesn’t respect coin. Jokes aside, that actually sucked.

Tim Patrick was a sweat-free winner, and Cooper Rush was benched, like we speculated was possible. I got very lucky on CMC’s under because he saw nearly all of the RB carries in his first game back; the Niners were just trailing for a good portion of the game. Calvin Ridley busted his under on the Titans' last offensive play, which really stung. It took 9 targets for him to get there as he strung together his most efficient day with Will Levis at QB this season. Sam Darnold and the Vikings surprisingly struggled for a large majority of the game, forcing a season-high in pass attempts.

What frustrated me most about last week was I had multiple plays I had written down as possible plays and never bet or released. All of them won, of course. Anyways, time to get back on track for Week 11!

If you are interested in getting all of our plays at 4for4, you can get a subscription for the rest of the season for as low as $10 with our friends at Rebet. It is available in 45+ states right now, and you just have to purchase $10 in rebet cash using our code.

Find out all of the details here, and feel free to DM me with any questions!

Week 11 Player Prop Bets

Noah Brown U41.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Brown has taken over the full-time WR2 role here but now draws a tough matchup against the Eagles' much-improved defense. They have allowed just two wideouts to clear 41 yards since their Week 5 bye, and that was 42 yards to Amari Cooper and 54 yards to Ja'Marr Chase. The Eagles are allowing just 6.6 YPA to outside wide receivers this year, which is third in the league. Brown lines up outside on over 80% of his routes.

In two games against the best secondaries the Commanders have played (Steelers and Bears), Brown had 33 and 73 (this includes the 52-yard hail mary). The Eagles also figure to run the ball plenty here and once again kill total play volume.

Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit