Week 11 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Ryan Noonan

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I spend a lot of time analyzing defensive performance, and the majority of my props land on that side of the ball. I'll also mix in some "traditional" offensive props, but expect to see more defense than offense from me this season. The power of our community moves these lines very quickly, so if you're waiting for tackle props to pop in here first, you'll be missing the best line and price on every play.

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Week 11 NFL Player Prop Bets

Kobie Turner (LAR) Over 3.5 Tackles and Assists (+100, DraftKings)

Kobie Turner was an easy cash at this same number on Monday night, and the second-year DT has exactly six combined tackles in four of his past five starts. The Patriots primarily run off guard or tackle, with just 28% of their rush attempts outside the edge, the fifth-lowest rate in the league. That's led to one of the highest rates of opposing DT tackles in the league at 16.88% (avg. is 14.6%).

Also, we have one of the best spots in the league for assists, which matters a lot for interior linemen since they often make tackles with a lot of bodies around them. Over the past two seasons, 54.07% of the tackles in New England have been scored with an assist, the third-highest rate in the league. I have Turner projected for 4.58 TAs in this spot and would play it up to 4.5 +120.

Risk: 1 unit to win 1 unit

Coby Bryant (SEA) Over 5.5 Tackles and Assists (-125, DraftKings)

Coby Bryant (no, not that one) has been filling in for the injured Rayshawn Jenkins, and he gets a great matchup this week. Safeties facing the 49ers average 17.8 combined tackles per game, 4.35 tackles per game above the league average. Roughly 28% of all tackles against the 49ers come from the safety position, with the league average rate being 22.2%.

The efficiency of the 49ers offense leads to more tackle opportunities for the opposition. They rank 13th in plays per game at 63.0, but they're eighth in total tackles against because not all plays are created equal. They pass toward the middle of the field at the second-highest rate in the league, and a high rate of passes to the running back position leads to more tackle opportunities for opposing safeties and linebackers. 14 safeties have topped this mark against the Niners this season. I have Bryant projected for 7.2 tackles in this spot.

Risk: 1.24 units to win 1 unit

Julian Love (SEA) Over 6.5 Tackles and Assists (-150, DraftKings)

All of the Bryant notes above, and more for Love. Love's box rate has been up over the past few weeks as well, and that helps increase his opportunities. Safeties vs San Francisco has been one of the more consistent matchups to exploit over the past couple of seasons, and Love has 12, 10, 7, and 10 tackles in his four career games against the 49ers.

I don't usually push out -150 lines, but I want to take a +money 7.5, so I want to move it. I have Love projected for 8.16 tackles in this spot, and 10 safeties have topped this mark against the Niners this season.

Risk: 1.5 units to win 1 unit

I will continue to update this column throughout the week as I release more bets.

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