Breakout Receiver Model: Week 12

Nov 21, 2024

Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the breakout receiver model for Week 12 of the NFL season. Each week, we use the model to identify players who may be over- or underperforming the value of their opportunity, whether that be due to luck, skill, or a variety of the two. We'll use the model to identify buy-low and sell-high candidates for season-long players. Then we'll analyze the main slate in an attempt to locate players with a higher likelihood of hitting a ceiling performance than the public perceives.

About the Breakout Receiver Model

The 4for4 data science team, in conjunction with our award-winning projections expert John Paulsen, created the current iteration receiver "buy-low" model in order to use machine learning to identify under-performing wide receivers and tight ends on the verge of a breakout performance. The model utilizes historical data and recent player performance to help determine players who have received opportunity that is typically more valuable than recent production would indicate. This particular model's features include air yards and routes-run data as a means of determining opportunity. It also utilizes a proprietary efficiency metric that looks back at the past 10 weeks of individual player performance, all to better help predict the likelihood of a bounce-back in a player's future production. The model most heavily weights the last three weeks of data.