O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 16

Dec 18, 2024

Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, including an offensive line's positive and negative impact on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below, I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA —one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and, when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches, will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered.

Editor's Note: Check out the complete set of Week 16 rankings here.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what offensive line/defense matchups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Quarterback Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
1	BUF	NE	26	25
6	TB	DAL	29	23
3	GB	NO	24	21
4	DEN	LAC	21	17
17	DAL	TB	32	15
19	LAR	NYJ	31	12
14	ARI	CAR	25	11
10	ATL	NYG	18	8
2	DET	CHI	9	7
15	LAC	DEN	22	7
23	LVR	JAX	28	5
12	MIN	SEA	17	5
21	PIT	BAL	23	2
26	CLE	CIN	27	1
13	NYJ	LAR	14	1
5	PHI	WAS	6	1
8	CAR	ARI	7	-1
31	NYG	ATL	30	-1
11	KC	HOU	10	-1
16	SF	MIA	15	-1
22	JAX	LVR	20	-2
7	BAL	PIT	2	-5
18	IND	TEN	12	-6
9	WAS	PHI	1	-8
25	CHI	DET	16	-9
32	NE	BUF	19	-13
27	SEA	MIN	13	-14
20	NO	GB	5	-15
29	HOU	KC	11	-18
28	CIN	CLE	8	-20
24	MIA	SF	4	-20
30	TEN	IND	3	-27

Buccaneers @ Cowboys

Racking up over 500 yards on the Los Angeles Chargers last week, the Buccaneers have a chance to keep the momentum going against a Cowboys defense that is still a little banged up.

Though they do have Micah Parsons back to wreak havoc for opposing quarterbacks, this might not be so easy against a Bucs OL that just held Khalil Mack, Joey Bosa and Co. to only five pressures on 30 dropbacks, a lowly 16.7% rate. This pushed their season-long rate down to 21.8%, by far the lowest mark in the league: the gap between themselves and second place (25.6%) is the same gap between second and eleventh place.

While Mike Evans is an obvious click for our fantasy semi-finals, rookie Jalen McMillan has found himself back on the radar following his recent 9-134-3 outburst over the last weeks, which makes him an intriguing Flex option against a Cowboys defense ranking 31st in WR aFPA. Things also bode well for Baker Mayfield, who is locked in as a top-10 option.

Broncos @ Chargers

Against two tougher defenses in the last two games, Bo Nix has been iffy in fantasy box scores, tossing four touchdowns but pairing it with five interceptions and a mediocre 130 yards in Week 15. He has a chance to get back on track against a Chargers team that ranks 21st in QB aFPA, and we're hoping he can get the ground game going like he had in the first half of the season.

The Chargers have allowed the 7th-highest yards per attempt (9.3) and the 6th-most yards per game (23.9) on quarterback scrambles on the year, and while we should expect Mack and Bosa to find their way into the pocket a few times, they do have their work cut out for them: the Broncos rank fourth in pressure rate allowed (26.9%) and third in adjusted sack rate (4.6%).

Courtland Sutton found the end zone in Week 15 to avoid a disastrous fantasy day, but his streak of second-half usage was, thankfully, upheld, which points toward him commanding a ton of targets against a Chargers secondary that ranks 28th in WR aFPA. Since Week 8, Sutton ranks ninth in target share (26.8%) and 11th in team yardage share (34.2%) while ranking second in air yards share (47.5%) among his contemporaries. Fire him up as a solid WR2 in Week 16, with Nix operating as a fringe QB1/2 option.

Bills vs. Patriots

Maybe it's a little disingenuous to pick on a Lions defense that has been ravaged by injuries, unlike any group in the NFL, but when an offensive line holds professional players to single-digit pressures, there are flowers to be given. This is far from the first time the Bills have managed this, too, as they haven’t allowed double-digit pressures in any of their three post-bye matchups, which has coincided with an incredible fantasy run for Josh Allen, totally a whopping 121.6 points during the most crucial juncture of the season.

Of the 154 offensive linemen who have taken at least 120 snaps (arbitrary, I know) over the last three weeks, the Bills have three members in the top 40 of Sports Info Solutions’ blown block rate: right tackle Spencer Brown (1.8% - 40th), left tackle Dion Dawkins (1.2% - 26th), and left guard David Edwards (0.0% - 1st). Now they’ll take on a Patriots defense that ranks 30th in pressure rate (28.5%) and 26th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing offenses.

While most of the Bills pass-catchers can’t be trusted in this spread-it-out attack, Khalil Shakir does profile as a fantastic high-floor WR3 as we battle toward the Fantasy Championship. He has earned 7+ targets in eight straight games, finding the end zone in the last two to inject a little bit of ceiling.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Colts vs. Titans

The Titans are opting to move on from Will Levis to Mason Rudolph (for now), but that shouldn’t stop us from targeting them with opposing D/STs. Tennessee has allowed the seventh-highest pressure rate (34.8%), with the fourth-highest adjusted sack rate, and while Rudolph should presumably keep the ball out of harm’s way more often, it’s worth pointing out that he does have five interceptions through 4+ games this season.

The issues along the Titans’ offensive line run across the entire unit, but each of their tackles has struggled in pass protection, ranking 50th (JC Latham) and 82nd (Nicholas Petit-Frere) out of 85 qualifiers in PFF’s pass-blocking efficiency metric. While Latham is a rookie (though, the seventh-overall pick), this is Petit-Frere’s third year in the league, which means he will likely be back in a swing tackle role by the start of the 2025 season.

Packers vs. Saints

Spencer Rattler is likely to get the call here in Week 16, but he has a doozy of a matchup. The Packers D/ST has averaged 8.6 fantasy points in the five games since their Bye, with the only non-startable performance coming against the Lions, and no one is streaming against the Lions anyway.

Green Bay has 12 sacks in their last two non-Lions games, so Rattler and/or Jake Haener should be under duress behind an offensive line that has been up and down all season. Rookie left tackle Taliese Fuaga has shown some great upward momentum as we look toward his prospects in 2025 and beyond, but the same can’t be said about former first-rounder Trevor Penning, whose flip to right tackle hasn’t been much more fruitful than his stint on the left side. Among 78 qualifying tackles in SIS’ database, they have Penning ranked 65th in blown block rate (4.4%), while PFF has him 52nd in pass-blocking efficiency (96.1).

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Running Back Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
1	BUF	NE	32	31
3	GB	NO	31	28
2	DET	CHI	27	25
10	ATL	NYG	30	20
14	ARI	CAR	29	15
8	CAR	ARI	22	14
7	BAL	PIT	21	14
5	PHI	WAS	19	14
15	LAC	DEN	23	8
18	IND	TEN	26	8
6	TB	DAL	13	7
23	LVR	JAX	28	5
12	MIN	SEA	15	3
4	DEN	LAC	4	0
26	CLE	CIN	25	-1
19	LAR	NYJ	16	-3
17	DAL	TB	14	-3
24	MIA	SF	20	-4
13	NYJ	LAR	8	-5
9	WAS	PHI	2	-7
32	NE	BUF	24	-8
11	KC	HOU	3	-8
20	NO	GB	11	-9
16	SF	MIA	7	-9
21	PIT	BAL	10	-11
31	NYG	ATL	18	-13
25	CHI	DET	12	-13
30	TEN	IND	17	-13
22	JAX	LVR	9	-13
27	SEA	MIN	6	-21
28	CIN	CLE	5	-23
29	HOU	KC	1	-28

Falcons vs. Giants

The move to Michael Penix Jr. has now been made official, and there’s a good chance the Falcons lean on Bijan Robinson even more in a game in which we don’t expect much pushback. The Giants rank 30th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position, including the seventh-most yards (38.7) and eighth-most yards per attempt (6.8) when targeting the running back.

This is such a good matchup, in fact, that managers can consider Tyler Allgeier an interesting deep-league option, as Atlanta is currently sitting as 8.5-point home favorites.

Cardinals @ Panthers

The Panthers offense has looked like it has (sort of) turned the corner and made small steps away from “worst in the league” territory, but the same certainly can’t be said of its defense. Since the team’s Week 11 bye, they have allowed a nearly impossible 205.3 yards per game on the ground, including a league-low 10.3% stuffed rate, which includes all runs for zero or negative yards. This is despite a -28 point differential in the last month, with opposing teams in very obvious running situations.

On the other side, the Cardinals have now climbed up to sixth in running back yards before carry (1.85), which should create plenty of space in front of a defense that ranks dead last in adjusted line yards (5.43). James Conner is set up for a week-winning performance.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad matchup through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing: