Week 12 NFL Player Prop Bets: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen

Nov 21, 2024

Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

We absolutely crushed in Week 11, going 7-2 for +5.89 units. We had some great, no-sweat wins, and a few lucky results as well.

Week 11 Plays

✅Noah Brown U41.5 rec yards

✅James Cook U59.5 rushing yards

✅JK Dobbins U14.5 carries

✅Jameson O41.5 & Alts

❌Cooper Rush U183.5 passing yards

✅Taysom Hill O18.5 receiving yards

✅Spears U 28.5 rushing yards

✅Lamar U46.5 rushing yards

❌Jaylen Warren U24.5 rushing yards

The easy wins: Noah Brown finished with 3 yards, James Cook averaged 2 yards per carry and finished close to 40 yards below his prop, Taysom Hill won in the first quarter, and Tyjae Spears finished with 0 rushing yards on 3 carries.

The sweaty wins: Jameson Williams was right around his regular prop of 41 before ripping a 64-yard touchdown near the beginning of the second half, hitting all of his alts as well. I was a bit worried they would just run the ball since they were up by so much but Dan Campbell kept his foot on the gas. Lamar Jackson won by half a yard despite him only carrying the ball 4 times all game.

The losses: Cooper Rush played terribly in the first quarter, throwing a pick and not completing many passes. He then got his act together and started slinging the ball as the Cowboys went into catch-up mode. If he threw another pick he probably would have been benched, but he actually played really well and finished with 350 yards. I was betting on Jaylen Warren not resuming his regular role, and while he wasn’t fully there, he still racked up a good amount of early down work but ceded passing down work to Najee, essentially the opposite of what I thought was going to happen.

All in all, the biggest reason I think I’m having a better year than previously is because I’m relying less on projections and looking at factors that are difficult to quantify in median projection. Sure, JK Dobbins could have gotten 15 carries last week, like he did the week before, and projections didn’t show a massive edge (13.5-14 in aggregate projections). Yet if Gus Edwards played more than anticipated, or the Chargers went pass heavy like they did in 2-of-3 past weeks, or they fell behind, it would be really difficult for Dobbins to hit 15+ carries. I’m not saying projections or even the line was necessarily wrong, it’s just difficult to put one number on something where multiple variables could significantly change the projection if one thing doesn't go according to plan. Especially when there is mostly downside with a lot of those variables like touch share, pass rate, game script, etc. Anyways, let’s keep the good times rolling, on to Week 12.