Week 14 Fantasy Football Sneaky Starts & Sleepers

All but the luckiest fantasy owners at some point need to find the proverbial diamond in the rough—a waiver wire or bench player capable of putting up some points in a pinch. This weekly feature is dedicated to that part of fantasy football. It's not pretty, but it's part of the game.

I’ll put the defense’s aFPA (adjusted fantasy points allowed) rank in parentheses below. As of Week 4, we are now using only 2024 data for our signature strength of schedule metric, which makes it a great apples-to-apples comparison of each defensive matchup.

Last week’s Sneaky Starts featured Russell Wilson (QB4), Anthony Richardsson (QB9), Bryce Young (QB8), Bucky Irving (RB1), Rico Dowdle (RB5), Jerry Jeudy (WR1), Brian Thomas (WR13), Elijah Moore (WR17), Keenan Allen (WR3), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR32), Jonnu Smith (TE3), Dallas Goedert (TE12), Tucker Kraft (TE14), Pat Freiermuth (TE5), and Dalton Schultz (TE7).

Let’s see who might surprise this week, with six teams on bye:

Quarterbacks

Will Levis, Titans (vs. JAX, 31)

Levis has scored 15.6+ in four straight games, including three games with two touchdowns apiece and an average of 16.5 yards rushing. The Jaguars have yielded an average of 284 yards and 2.0 touchdowns plus 28 yards rushing to enemy quarterbacks this season. I’m not a big bettor, but his line at PrizePicks (206.5) seems way too low. He’s gone over that in three straight and all but two quarterbacks cleared that total against Jacksonville this season–Deshaun Watson in Week 2 and Jordan Love, who was injured midgame.

Russell Wilson, Steelers (vs. CLE, 7)

Since Week 5, the Browns have given up an average of 18.5 fantasy points and 8.8 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks. Wilson had a bad game against Baltimore but has otherwise been competent. He’s coming off a 414/3 game against the Bengals and is averaging 17.3 fantasy points in six starts.

Jameis Winston, Browns (@ PIT, 2)

The Steelers are not a particularly good matchup, but Joe Burrow threw for 309/3 and 8.1 yards per attempt last week, and Winston posted 8.1 yards per attempt the week before (in the snow). The reason I’m willing to start Winston is the volume. He has attempted 41, 46, 46, 27, and 58 passes in five starts, and the low number (27) was in a snowstorm against the Steelers.

Kirk Cousins, Falcons (@ MIN, 19)

The Vikings are a known pass funnel; they have the most pass attempts per game allowed (38.5) and the second-fewest rush attempts allowed (21.8). Cousins will probably throw a pick or two, but he should approach 40 pass attempts and is competent enough to rack up yardage in the process. In addition to the fifth-most pass yards per game (243.3), the Vikings have given up an average of 1.5 touchdown passes per game this year.

Aidan O’Connell, Raiders (@ TB, 32)

O’Connell turned in a really gutsy performance (340/2, 9.7 YPA) in his first game back against the Chiefs. He doesn’t offer anything as a runner, but he should be able to produce from the pocket against the Bucs, who have allowed an average of 276 yards and 1.8 touchdowns to opposing passers this season, including 15 touchdowns in the last six games.

Running Backs

Isaac Guerendo, 49ers (vs. CHI, 19)

Who backs him up is to be determined, but with both Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason out multiple weeks, Guerendo could be the surprise late-season “league-winner” if he can deliver what Mason did earlier in the season. Guerendo has averaged 5.9 yards per carry this season on 42 totes, and he’s added five catches for 19 yards. For reference, Mason saw a target on 3.7% of his snaps while Guerendo was targeted on 5.5% of his snaps. (McCaffrey checked in at 11.4%, so Guerendo could conceivably see about half of CMC’s receiving work, which would be a boon.) He immediately gets a juicy matchup against the Bears, who have yielded an average of 148 total yards, 5.0 yards per carry, and 0.83 touchdowns to enemy backfields this season.

D’Andre Swift, Bears (@ SF, 24)

Roschon Johnson (concussion) seems likely to miss Week 14, and he’s seen 16 of the team’s 78 touches in the last four games, so Swift may get that work. That would boost his 15.5-touch average in that span to around 19.5 touches. The Bears may instead elect to work Travis Homer into the mix, but it’s doubtful that he’d take over Johnson’s valuable goal-line role. In the last four weeks, the 49ers have given up an eye-popping average of 155 total yards and 2.0 touchdowns to opposing backs.

Nick Chubb, Browns (@ PIT, 28)

Chubb hasn’t produced at the levels we’re used to, but he has scored three touchdowns in the last two weeks, including two against the Steelers in the snow in Week 12. The weather in Pittsburgh should be fine this week, but maybe Chubb will have a chance to score a touchdown or two seeing that the Steelers have allowed an average of 1.8 rushing touchdowns to running backs since Week 10.

Sincere McCormick & Ameer Abdullah, Raiders (@ TB, 11)

Get this–no running back gained more than 60 yards rushing against the Chiefs until McCormick did it in Week 13. He breathed life into a Raiders’ rushing game that has been terrible all season, averaging 5.3 yards per carry against a team that had allowed 3.2 yards per carry to enemy running backs during the season. Only one running back (Jordan Mason) averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry against the Chiefs with 10+ carries. Alexander Mattison is working his way back and could return this week, but McCormick could be taking over this backfield. He racked up 2,946 yards in his final two seasons at UT-San Antonio, though he doesn’t have impressive measurables. I’m not sure that matters, given the situation. The Raiders are looking for rushing production and McCormick looked better in Week 13 than any Vegas running back has looked all year. There is still a level of trust with Abdullah, and he’ll be a factor in the receiving game–PPR managers, take note–but McCormick may be the main ball carrier moving forward. The Bucs have yielded an average of 138 total yards, 4.65 yards per carry, and 0.91 touchdowns per game to enemy backfields this season.

Ray Davis, Bills (@ LAR, 21)

I’m not sure I’m up for another round of Ray Davis Whac-A-Mole, but here we are. He’s coming off an 11-carry, 63-yard, one-touchdown effort in the snow against the 49ers, and now the Bills travel to face the Rams, who have given up an average of 150 total yards to opposing running backs this year.

Wide Receivers

Jauan Jennings, 49ers (vs. CHI, 9)

Based on the consensus rankings I’m seeing, I think folks are underestimating Jennings this week. He’s coming off of a couple of quiet games–5-40 on seven targets against the Packers and 3-56 on five targets against the Bills–the Green Bay game featured Brandon Allen at quarterback and the Buffalo game was played in a snowstorm. Setting those aside, in Jennings’s three games with Purdy and without either Brandon Aiyuk (Weeks 10-11) or Deebo Samuel (Week 3), Jennings has posted 11-175-3, 7-93, and 10-91-1. He also had a 64-yard game and an 88-yard game in September with both Aiyuk/Samuel in the lineup.

Jakobi Meyers & Tre Tucker, Raiders (@ TB, 32)

Tucker is more of a dart throw, but Meyers is a solid WR2 in a short week given the matchup–the Bucs have yielded an average of 13.9 catches for 162 yards and 1.0 touchdowns to the receiver position this season–and his usage–26 targets in the last two games–Meyers is a good bet to approach 100 yards again this week. He has hit the 97-yard mark in three of his last four games and has at least 70 yards and/or a touchdown in six of his last eight games. As for Tucker, DJ Turner was placed on injured reserve, so Tucker should see plenty of snaps. He posted 7-82 and 1-58-1 in the last two weeks.

Jordan Addison, Vikings (vs. ATL, 28)

Addison has cleared 50 yards and/or scored a touchdown in three straight games and in six of his last eight. The Falcons have yielded an average of 13.4 catches for 149 yards and 1.25 touchdowns to enemy receivers this season. Since Week 9, Marvin Mims, Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Troy Franklin, Marquez Valdes-Scantling (2), and Jalen Tolbert have found the end zone against Atlanta.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Titans (vs. JAX, 29)

Speaking of finding the end zone, Westbrook-Ikhine’s touchdown rate seems unsustainable, yet he continues to sustain it. He has eight touchdowns in his last eight games, including four touchdown catches (and 226 yards) in his last three games. Jacksonville has given up an average of 181 yards and 1.08 touchdowns to opposing receivers this year.

Darnell Mooney, Falcons (@ MIN, 31)

I mentioned Kirk Cousins earlier and we can start Mooney for the same reasons. Minnesota is a pass-funnel (183/1.17 allowed to receivers) and Mooney does appear in Week 14’s Breakout Receiver Model. Mooney has had a couple of quiet games after getting dinged up in Week 11, but through Week 10 he was the fantasy WR8.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Saints (@ NYG, 7)

At this point, we might as well stay on the MVS train until it goes off the rails. In the last three games, he has posted 3-109-2, 2-87-1, and 2-36-1 on 10 total targets, oh my. His snaps have risen from 55% to 65% to 76% in that span so it doesn’t appear that his role is going to dry up anytime soon. The concern is the low-volume, big-play nature of his game, but if you need a home run, he’s capable of providing it. This doesn’t hurt–the Giants are last in the league in EPA/play on deep balls.

Christian Watson, Packers (@ DET, 18)

Speaking of home runs, Watson’s speed is elite and the Packers will usually give him 1-2 deep shots per game. He’s 15th in average air yards in the last four games and leads the league in average depth of target (aDOT) in that span.

Parker Washington, Jaguars (@ TEN,15)

Trevor Lawrence is going to miss Week 14 with a concussion, so Mac Jones is back in the saddle, and he apparently likes throwing to Washington. The duo connected four times (on nine targets, a 28.1% share) for 67 yards and a touchdown. Washington finished with 6-103-1 (12) thanks to a few catches before Lawrence exited the game.

Tight Ends

Pat Freiermuth (vs. CLE, 21) and Cade Otton (vs. LV, 27) are both solid plays with good matchups in a short week.

Dawson Knox, Bills (@ LAR, 11)

Knox is only viable if Dalton Kincaid remains out. (Kincaid was limited in practice on Wednesday.) Knox caught both of his targets for 56 yards in the snowy game against the 49ers. He posted 4-40 on six targets against the Chiefs in the previous game. Remember, Knox had two seasons where he gained 500+ yards and scored 6+ touchdowns prior to Kincaid’s arrival. The Rams have yielded an average of 5.8 catches for 60 yards and 0.33 touchdowns to the position this season.

Noah Gray, Chiefs (vs. LAC, 1)

Gray has posted 4-23-2, 4-66-2, and 4-58 on 15 total targets in the last three weeks. This week’s matchup isn’t favorable–the Chargers have only given up one touchdown to a tight end this season–but Gray’s recent play makes him a viable spot start.

Juwan Johnson, Saints (@ NYG, 2)

Johnson’s matchup isn’t good, but on a short week, beggars can’t be choosers. Taysom Hill is likely done for the year, and the Saints are down bad at receiver, so it’s no surprise that Johnson saw seven targets last week. He’s a threat for 10+ PPR points this week.

Grant Cacaterra, Eagles (vs. CAR, 30)

Dallas Goedert is out with a knee injury. In the four games that he missed earlier in the season, Calcaterra posted 4-67, 1-5, 3-58, and 5-30 on 13 total targets. Far from a sure thing, his outlook is nonetheless boosted by a favorable matchup against the Panthers, who have yielded an average of 63 yards and 0.75 touchdowns to the tight end position this season.

Mike Gesicki, Bengals (@ DAL, 24)

In the seven games that Tee Higgins has played, Gesicki has seen 5, 1, 2, 0, 1, 2, and 5 targets, which isn’t exactly confidence-inducing, but since Week 5, the Cowboys have given up an average of 52 yards and 0.75 touchdowns to enemy tight ends. Gesicki was involved (5 targets) last week and could be again in Week 14.