Monotone's Week 15 Best Bets: Week 15 NFL Player Prop Bets
It's hard to believe that Week 15 is already here, but luckily, we have a fantastic slate of games. Coming off another positive week, I'm currently sitting at 98-59 +22.88u on NFL player props this season. With the playoffs right around the corner, we have some of the best teams in the league facing off in high-leverage matchups; this opens up plenty of opportunities in the prop market. Check out my favorite plays for this Sunday's action!
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Week 15NFL Player Props
Joe Mixon o19.5 receiving yards -110
I'm very excited for Joe Mixon in this matchup against a Dolphins team that’s struggled to stop RBs through the air out of the backfield. Recent games include Allen and Davis going for 3.9 and 4 YPC for 43 and 40 yards on the ground, but going 4-38 and 3-27 through the air. Before that, we saw Jacobs go 19-43 and 4-74 despite winning by margin. Stevenson 8-13 and Gibson 6-31 with only 14 rec yards. Mattison 5-19 vs 3-50 + Abudullah 3-16. There is a consistent trend of backs struggling to find success on the ground, and turning to short passing to pick up that slack.
The trend you’ll notice is the Dolphins have been really strong on the ground but a funnel to pass-catching RB’s. Mixon ran 23 routes to Dare’s 4 last game, and will continue to dominate work as one of the highest-usage running backs in the league. His pure usage is fantastic, and I’m expecting a competitive game where Mixon is heavily involved once again. Mixon is over this number in 6 of his last 9 games, averaging 23 receiving yards.
Risk 1.1u to win 1u FD/365, DK/MGM -115 playable to 21.5 -115
Alvin Kamara U17.5 carries -130
With the season all but over, Kamara had 17 carries last week to Kendre Miller's 10 in a game they led nearly the entire game. They also ran 68 plays in that spot. New Saints HC Darren Rizzi continued to talk up Kendre Miller this week after he played well last week. They are now touchdown+ underdogs to the Commanders with a backup QB in. Play volume and efficiency will likely be low in this spot, and they will likely be thrust into a negative game script.
Even with all the other factors working in our favor, Kamara only has 18+ carries in 5-of-13 games this year.
Joint play with @Noonan & @Connor Allen
Risk 1.30 units to win 1 unit (-130 365, MGM, Builder, DK, CZRS - playable to 16.5 -130)
Josh Allen o37.5 rushing yards -114
Josh Allen is a guy who has consistently increased his rushing production in important/high-pressure games. This is mostly common sense, but across the board, you’re going to see increased rushing usage in the games that matter the most. You don’t want to risk the health of your franchise quarterback as much as possible, and this is reflected in his game log. We just saw 10-82 vs LAR, 12-55 vs KC, and 8-50 vs IND in competitive games and 3-18 vs SF (35-10 score) & 3-1 vs TEN (34-10), 7-25 vs SEA (34-10), & 2-7 vs Miami (only close miss).
These kind of huge spikes are exactly what we want because I couldn’t care less about the data from 25+ point wins against lesser teams, especially when you get a fantastic Lions matchup in what’s projected to be the highest-scoring game of the season. We have a large sample size of Allen turning up the Jets when it matters most, and we get a Lions defense that plays a ton of man coverage, leading to explosive plays. DET has given up the 7th most rush yards to QBs, but by far the highest YPC, Allen is absolutely the kind of guy that can take advantage. They also play a ton of man coverage (41.3%) and blitz on over 30% of dropbacks, two things we look for with QBs who run since it creates massive gaps at times.
Joint play with @Connor and @Noonan.
playable to 42.5 (-114 FD, 39.5 CZRS, fine at 40.5 everywhere else)
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This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks and those from the rest of the betting staff. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.
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