Monotone's Week 15 Best Bets: Week 15 NFL Player Prop Bets

It's hard to believe that Week 15 is already here, but luckily, we have a fantastic slate of games. Coming off another positive week, I'm currently sitting at 98-59 +22.88u on NFL player props this season. With the playoffs right around the corner, we have some of the best teams in the league facing off in high-leverage matchups; this opens up plenty of opportunities in the prop market. Check out my favorite plays for this Sunday's action!

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Week 15 NFL Player Props

Joe Mixon o19.5 receiving yards -110

I'm very excited for Joe Mixon in this matchup against a Dolphins team that’s struggled to stop RBs through the air out of the backfield. Recent games include Allen and Davis going for 3.9 and 4 YPC for 43 and 40 yards on the ground, but going 4-38 and 3-27 through the air. Before that, we saw Jacobs go 19-43 and 4-74 despite winning by margin. Stevenson 8-13 and Gibson 6-31 with only 14 rec yards. Mattison 5-19 vs 3-50 + Abudullah 3-16. There is a consistent trend of backs struggling to find success on the ground, and turning to short passing to pick up that slack.

The trend you’ll notice is the Dolphins have been really strong on the ground but a funnel to pass-catching RB’s. Mixon ran 23 routes to Dare’s 4 last game, and will continue to dominate work as one of the highest-usage running backs in the league. His pure usage is fantastic, and I’m expecting a competitive game where Mixon is heavily involved once again. Mixon is over this number in 6 of his last 9 games, averaging 23 receiving yards.

Risk 1.1u to win 1u FD/365, DK/MGM -115 playable to 21.5 -115

Alvin Kamara U17.5 carries -130

With the season all but over, Kamara had 17 carries last week to Kendre Miller's 10 in a game they led nearly the entire game. They also ran 68 plays in that spot. New Saints HC Darren Rizzi continued to talk up Kendre Miller this week after he played well last week. They are now touchdown+ underdogs to the Commanders with a backup QB in. Play volume and efficiency will likely be low in this spot, and they will likely be thrust into a negative game script.

Even with all the other factors working in our favor, Kamara only has 18+ carries in 5-of-13 games this year.

Joint play with @Noonan & @Connor Allen

Risk 1.30 units to win 1 unit (-130 365, MGM, Builder, DK, CZRS - playable to 16.5 -130)

Josh Allen o37.5 rushing yards -114

Josh Allen is a guy who has consistently increased his rushing production in important/high-pressure games. This is mostly common sense, but across the board, you’re going to see increased rushing usage in the games that matter the most. You don’t want to risk the health of your franchise quarterback as much as possible, and this is reflected in his game log. We just saw 10-82 vs LAR, 12-55 vs KC, and 8-50 vs IND in competitive games and 3-18 vs SF (35-10 score) & 3-1 vs TEN (34-10), 7-25 vs SEA (34-10), & 2-7 vs Miami (only close miss).

These kind of huge spikes are exactly what we want because I couldn’t care less about the data from 25+ point wins against lesser teams, especially when you get a fantastic Lions matchup in what’s projected to be the highest-scoring game of the season. We have a large sample size of Allen turning up the Jets when it matters most, and we get a Lions defense that plays a ton of man coverage, leading to explosive plays. DET has given up the 7th most rush yards to QBs, but by far the highest YPC, Allen is absolutely the kind of guy that can take advantage. They also play a ton of man coverage (41.3%) and blitz on over 30% of dropbacks, two things we look for with QBs who run since it creates massive gaps at times.

Joint play with @Connor and @Noonan.

playable to 42.5 (-114 FD, 39.5 CZRS, fine at 40.5 everywhere else)

Jameson Williams o51.5 receiving yards -110

While Williams is known as one of the most explosive downfield threats in the league, we’ve seen more balanced usage since returning from his suspension. Over in 4/5 since then, seeing 5+ targets in every game (53+ in 8/11 on the season). He’s been even better at home averaging 83.5 yards per game. Williams has a 17.9% target share, 2.37 YPRR, and a 24.2% first-read share this year, and Amon Ra St Brown should see pretty tough coverage with Taron Johnson. Bills aren’t the easiest matchup in the world but this game has a 54 total, and Williams could have the easiest matchup with a rough Bills injury report. The Bills have also played alot more single coverage these last two weeks, which could give Williams some additional deep shots (leads the team with 11 deep targets). Like that he has multiple different avenues to get here in what should be a very good offensive game.

Daniel Bellinger o14.5 receiving yards -110

Combo with Noonan

Bellinger is coming off a winner where he logged 61 snaps last week (his previous season high was just 26) and tied for the team lead with five catches against the Saints. While he’s been stuck in TE purgatory since a successful rookie season, the loss of Theo Johnson completely clears out the competition in the TE room. While Bellinger has always been a good blocker, the presence of veteran Chris Manhertz in that role should free him up to run even more routes.

The Ravens are -16 and should be able to manhandle the Giants defense, this should force them into a situation where they are likely dropping back all game long. With Peirce back, the Ravens rush defense will continue to be a top unit. They are allowed the 7th most TE targets & 5th most yards. Drew Lock to DeVito is also a surprisingly upgrade considering how heavily he’s targeted the position in his limited NFL action.

Risk 1.1u to win 1u -110 DK/MGM/365, -113 CZR playable to 16.5 -115

Geno Smith o12.5 rushing yards -110

This prop looks a little bit scary when you look at his recent game log, but I think that an overreaction to those numbers is a good thing for our price here. While they are on a four-game win streak where things have looked a lot better, they are back to being underdogs against the Packers. When looking at Geno Smith’s rushing game log in games they lost, it looks a lot better.

6-16 vs LAR

5-15 vs BUF

4-72 vs NYG

5-39 vs DET

1-0 SF

Mobile QB’s vs the Packers

Hurts 11-33

Richardson 4-37

Kyler 7-14 (blowout)

Stroud 5-19

Caleb Williams 7-90

They haven’t faced the toughest opponents but I have it as a middle-of-the-pack matchup, the Packers should generate enough pressure to force some scramble opportunities.

Risk 0.83u to win 0.75u -110 MGM/365/DK, -118 CZR playable to 13.5 -120

Isaiah Pacheco over 13.5 carries (-115 mgm, -120 fd, fine to DK -135, CZRS -137)

Joint with @Connor Allen H/t for the writeup

Pacheco out-carried Kareem Hunt 14-5 last week as they continue to work him back. The Chiefs now draw the Browns in what could be a sloppy game. The field is expected to be a bit messy pregame, precipitation rates are expected to be high and 15+ MPH winds are expected to go across the field which could impact deep passing. It’a not to the point i’m pounding unders but it could force both teams to skew a bit run-heavier. The Chiefs also lead the league in average time of possession by a wide margin, their lack of explosive plays but dominance in success rate really allows for plenty of RB opportunities, as we saw from Mr. Hunt.

Risk 1.20 unit to win 1 unit - would play to 14.5 for a half unit

Dyami Brown o27.5 rushing + receiving yards -115

Brown is an extremely high-variance player but I like this upside in a matchup with an awful Saints pass defense. Noah Brown is a way bigger loss than people realize, especially with most of the other WR’s being slot guys. Brown has a very simple role, he will get short yardage screen work along with a deep shot or two. His route tree isn’t advanced, but pure volume should give him enough opportunity to cash this. He also has a rush attempt in back-to-back games, and I expect that trend to continue. With the Saints destroyed secondary, I think he should have a couple of nice man coverage 1on1 opportunities

Via beat John Keim:

Curious how Washington uses Dyami Brown. Of his 20 catches, 16 have come within 5 yards of the LOS and 14 at or behind the LOS. 7 of 28 targets had 15+ air yards. Has caught 3 passes downfield; caught comebacks/hitches. Can do it. But mostly used on "tough" catch/run screens

Risk 0.57 to win 0.5u -115 DK, MGM/365 playable to 29.5 on CZR

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