Week 15 Best Bets on Rebet: Jake's Best Bets

Every week, I’ll be posting a few of my favorite plays in this article with brief write-ups of each play. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward.

Week 14 Recap: 0-3, -$360 (assuming $100 units)

Overall: 28-21, +$388 (assuming $100 units)

Week 15 was our worst week all season. Unfortunately, we lost two bets as soon as Brooks got hurt. Jonathon Brooks went down with a knee injury on his first carry of the game, killing our over on Brooks himself and tanking the under we had on Chuba because he was instantly thrust into a workhorse role. Our last loss was the Pacheco under; I thought the split between Hunt and Pacheco would be slightly closer to 50/50. The bet looked good until they leaned on Pacheco down the stretch and continued to feed him. In hindsight, Pacheco could’ve been a bet to stay away from because of the uncertainty of his role coming back from injury. The runout on Brooks and Chuba was brutal; that’s what happens when you bet lines that are correlated; you gotta be prepared to lose both.

Week 14 NFL Best Bets

C.J. Stroud OVER 32.5 Pass Attempts (-127) Prop City

Released in Discord on 12/11. Stroud's second season hasn't been as smooth as his rookie campaign. But coming off the bye week, the Texans host the Dolphins in what should be a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair; the Texans are 2.5-point favorites in a game with a 47-point total. Last week, Aaron Rodgers went 27-39 for 339 yards against this Dolphins defense, so they can definitely be attacked through the air. The Dolphins should also be able to push the Texans here, giving Stroud the opportunity to sail over this number.

Jameis Winston OVER 34.5 Pass Attempts (-123) Prop City

Released in Discord on 12/12. Jameis has made six starts for CLE this year, and in those starts, his pass attempts have been: 41, 46, 46, 27, 58, and 41. The one time he went under here was the TNF snow game vs. Pittsburgh. On the season, the Browns have the 6th highest PROE. Cleveland also hasn't been able to run the ball all season; Chubb's comeback story is great, but he looks like he has nothing left. The Browns are home dogs here, and the Chiefs allow the third-highest dropback EPA over the last six weeks, so we should see plenty of attempts from Winston.

Brian Robinson OVER 6.5 Receiving Yards (-114) Prop City

Released in Discord on 12/12. Robinson cleared this number in both games he played without Ekeler and cleared it in the L4 games in a row. While I don't think Washington will be forced to drop back and pass much in this matchup, Brob is plenty equipped as a pass catcher to only need one target to go over. This is a bet on Washington leaning into Robinson down the stretch in what is considered a must-win game for Washington if they want to stay in control of their playoff hopes.

Josh Downs UNDER 53.5 Receiving Yards (-112) Prop City

Released in Discord on 12/13. Downs appears set to return this week from his shoulder injury against the Broncos. However, we have quite a few outs on the under here. With Anthony Richardson at QB, Downs has only averaged 49 yards per game (including a game against the Texans where he had a 69-yard touchdown. The Broncos are also an extremely difficult matchup for opposing WRs, as they have allowed the league’s fifth-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.7 yards). We also could see Downs on a snap count coming off the shoulder injury.

Be sure to get in our Discord, as I may push out plays over the weekend as well. Important: You may notice some of the bets posted in this article either have already settled (Thursday Night game), or some of the odds/lines may have moved. The best way to get access to the bets as they are released is to join our subscriber-only Discord. All of our staff’s plays are released there, and that is the best way to guarantee you get the original line we post. Join the Discord to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team. Go to Channels & Roles and customize your Discord experience.

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DubClub

I also manage the DubClub pick’em plays, and through fourteen weeks, we have released a total of 200 individual props (68 total entries).

Individual play record of: 119-81 (60% win rate)

Using Underdog Fantasy's payout structure, applying our win rate to each pick level would have resulted in a massive ROI at each pick level (2/3/4/5). For example, if you played each of our plays in groups of 3, you would have a 26.39% expected ROI this season!

If interested in joining DubClub, you can get your first week for only $1!

If you want push notifications for all of these bets, make sure to join our subscriber-only discord!

This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks and those from the rest of the betting staff. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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