Week 16 NFL Player Prop Bets: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen
Betting is always a roller coaster. After a 30-unit heater for 8+ weeks, we had a terrible Week 14. I then bounced back a bit in Week 15 with a marginally positive weekend.
Week 15 Recap (5-4, +0.36 units)
- Brock Purdy over 246.5 passing yards
- Lamar Jackson under 26.5 pass attempts
- Alvin Kamara under 17.5 carries
- Josh Allen over 37.5 rushing yards
- Russell Wilson under 199.5 passing yards
- James Cook under 51.5 rushing yards
- Michael Pittman under 44.5 receiving yards
- Isiah Pacheco over 13.5 carries
- Tyrone Tracy under 48.5 rushing yards
Pacheco had just 13 carries and split work fully with Kareem Hunt a week after his role expanded, a pretty surprising development. Brock Purdy played one of the worst games of his professional career on Thursday, and we just got caught in the crosshairs of that, unfortunately.
I am already loving how our card is shaping up for Week 16 so let’s dive into it.
Week 16 NFL Player Prop Bets
Russell Wilson U215.5 passing yards (-115 DraftKings)
Officially released at 217.5 at FD on 12/19. I wanted to make sure Pickens was out before officially playing this, and he is once again out. We bet this last week, and Russell Wilson had 8 passing yards in the 1Q vs Philly. The only reason he cleared 100 passing yards was because of a fantastic catch from Calvin Austin, but overall, Russ and the passing game once again struggled mightily.
He now has 128 and 158 passing yards in two games without George Pickens this season. This week, he goes up against the Ravens, who have been playing much better as of late after making some moves in the secondary.
Since making changes prior to Week 11, they are allowing just 5.72 yards per attempt, with no QB even clearing 220 passing yards. Without Pickens in a bit of a tougher matchup at this point I have a tough time seeing Russ getting there.
Risk to win 1 unit
Mike Gesicki over 25.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings)
Gesicki's usage has been all over the place this season but most notably saw a massive spike with Tee Higgins out of the lineup. He saw 8-6-9 targets in the three games without Higgins, which parlayed into 73 - 100 - 30 receiving yards. Higgins DNP twice to start the week, and it looks like he could miss this game or at least not be 100% going into it. If Higgins misses, this line will climb into the high 30's.
With the Bengals sporting just a 5% chance to make the playoffs and a looming contract situation, Higgins is likely in no rush to hurry back here.
Even if Higgins does play, this is a solid look, as Gesick has 53, 24, and 37 receiving yards in the last 3 games with a 20% target per route run rate. It's obviously a pretty low bar, but the Browns have allowed 10 tight ends to clear 25+ yards in just 14 games so far.
The only concern here is that the Bengals blow them out so bad they don't have to throw, but the Bengals haven't attempted fewer than 37 passes in a game since late October, regardless of the score.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Dorian Thompson-Robinson (CLE) U210.5 passing yards (DraftKings)
Pretty surprised to see this number come in so high.
DTR is getting the start this week over Jameis Winston against the Bengals. After Deshaun Watson was injured in the second quarter, DTR played for about a half against the Bengals earlier this season.
In that game, he attempted 24 passes, completing just 11 of them (48% completion rate), and threw for just 82 yards (3.2 YPA) and 2 interceptions. He was so bad the Browns actually benched him for Jameis Winston with a drive left. DTR started 3 games in 2023 and was just as bad, throwing for 165, 121, and 134 in 3 games on serious volume, failing to throw for more than 5 yards per attempt in a single game.
Even when considering his previous matchup against the Bengals, the Bengals' secondary has been undeniably bad this season. Despite their poor season-long metrics, a lot of their inefficiency has come against solid to strong QB play. The 6 QBs they have allowed 210+ passing yards to:
- Russ (with Pickens)
- Lamar (2x)
- Herbert
DTR is obviously not in that bucket. I would play this to 200, which sounds ridiculous, but that's about what I expected the number to open at.
Risk 1.10 units to win 1 unit
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This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks and those from the rest of the betting staff. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.
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