Breakout Receiver Model: Week 17
Welcome back to the breakout receiver model for Week 17 of the NFL season. With the holidays and fantasy championships upon us, it's time to lock-in for the most important week of the season. Despite teams starting to diverge in terms of usage - with some playing entirely for the future and others honing in on playoff strategy, the model continues to produce tons of hits, which gives us increased confidence that we can still rely on the model results if we're in need of a surprise spot-start due to injury,
With Week 17 starting right on the heels of Monday night football, we want to get the updated metrics out as quickly as possible, and let the data and charts speak for themselves. Later in the week, I will add my thoughts on some top breakout candidates for the main slate.
About the Breakout Receiver Model
The 4for4 data science team, in conjunction with our award-winning projections expert John Paulsen, created the current iteration receiver "buy-low" model in order to use machine learning to identify under-performing wide receivers and tight ends on the verge of a breakout performance. The model utilizes historical data and recent player performance to help determine players who have received opportunity that are typically more valuable than recent production would indicate. This particular model's features include air yards and routes-run data as a means of determining opportunity. It also utilizes a proprietary efficiency metric that looks back at the past 10 weeks of individual player performance, all to better help predict the likelihood of a bounce-back in a player's future production. The model most heavily weights the last three weeks of data.
Last Week's Model-Predicted Hits
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- The most Accurate Rankings Since 2010
- Expert Draft Picks w/DraftHero
- Highest Scoring Lineup + Top Available Players w/LeagueSync
- ...and much much more
