NFL SGP Picks: Bills vs. Dolphins Parlay for TNF

We made it to Week 2 just like I knew we would but things are even better than I thought they would be. The sportsbooks are offering bonuses literally around every corner. DraftKings has a 50% profit boost again tonight. They also have a No Sweat Touchdown bet for each day of football this week. Obviously, we should expect that from Week 1, but getting loose like that in Week 2 is glorious. Like my buddy Brad always says, we can't waste a boost. I'm legit going to use every single one of them. For now, we'll use the No Sweat SGP from FanDuel. It's all deadly.

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Thursday Night Football SGP - Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins (+408)

Legs One: Tua Tagovailoa 275+ Passing Yards

I want to see the ball flying around tonight, damn it. It's Thursday night, which kicks off the entire weekend. We're not tuning in to see two-yard rushes. We want action. Lucky for us, I think Mike McDaniel is going to give it to us. It's just how he rolls. So how do we bet this? Great question; we start with Tua. The man led all NFL passers last week with 338 yards. Granted, they did play from behind, but it wasn't a total "sell out and throw every down" deficit. My guess is, the Dolphins are just going to be a team that wants the ball in the air, no matter the game script. Even if we're wrong, the Bills just hung 34 on the Cardinals last week, so we could get game-scripted into 275+. Either way, we're on to leg two.

Leg Two: Tyreek Hill 100+ Receiving Yards

The Miami Dolphins target tree has to be the most pathetic-looking tree in the world. It's like the Charlie Brown Christmas Tree. Basically just two branches. While that's bad for a real tree, it's good for us because we know where the ball is going. Think about it: if we had Tyreek Hill on our team, we would simply throw him the ball. It seems to work. The man caught 119 balls for 1799 yards last season. He knows what he's doing. Last week, even after getting dragged out of his car and handcuffed before the game, he still posted a 7-130 line. Teams know what's coming, but they can't stop it. If Tua throws for 275+, it's a pretty safe bet to say Tyreek will get 100+ of that 275+. It's science.

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Leg Three: Jaylen Waddle 70+ Receiving Yards

The other branch of the Dolphins' target tree is Jaylen Waddle. If it wasn't for Tyreek Hill, this guy would get more love. He deserves it. Dude went for 1000 yards in just 14 games last season. That's a lot. The thing is, it looks like he's going for even more this season. He started with 109 last week on just five catches. The man can't be covered. If we get into one of those games where Tua is slinging it all over the place, Jaylen Waddle is going for 70+. Feels right.

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Lines and prices accurate at the time of posting in Discord