Week 2 Best Bets on Rebet: Jake's Best Bets

This is my first year working with 4for4. Every week I’ll be posting a few of my favorite plays in this article with brief write-ups of each play. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward.

All lines posted will be available on Rebet at the time this article is released. 4for4 has partnered with Rebet to bring you an easy way to claim a FREE, no-strings-attached 2-month betting subscription to 4for4, plus a deposit match up to $100! If interested, you can sign up using this link.

Sometimes, these lines may move very quickly, so the best way to get access to the bets is to join our subscriber-only Discord. All of our staff’s plays are released there, and that is the best way to guarantee you get the original line we post. Join the Discord to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team. Go to Channels & Roles and customize your Discord experience.

My main focus will be on player props, but I occasionally bet some sides and totals as well. I also manage the DubClub pick’em plays, and in Week 1, we booked an 18-9 record, good for an $800 profit (assuming $100 units). If interested in joining DubClub, you can get your first week for only $1.

Week 2 NFL Best Bets

Andrei Iosivas OVER 2.5 Receptions (-134; regular game props)

Andrei Iosivas had three receptions in Week 1 and ran a route on every Burrow dropback (35 routes). Tee Higgins hasn’t practiced for the second consecutive week and I am expecting him to be inactive for this game. The Chiefs are a difficult matchup for WRs, but the Bengals are 6-point underdogs with a game total of 48 points and will have to throw to keep up with the Chiefs offense. I am not fully convinced Burrow is 100% from his torn wrist ligament, so I expect the Bengals to continue a similar trend on offense last week: tons of low aDOT passes (5.9 last week). More pass plays equals more opportunity for Iosivas. A 2.5 reception line on a WR2 with a 100% snap participation on pass plays is too light; I have Iosivas for close to four here and don’t mind taking shots on some alt reception overs as well.

K.J. Osborn UNDER 24.5 Receiving Yards (-118; Prop City)

K.J. Osborn ran just 14 routes last week on 29 dropbacks from Jacoby Brissett. He drew 6 targets, catching just 3 of them for 21 yards. He likely won't have anywhere near that level of target per route run rate in the future. He now draws the Seahawks, who locked up Bo Nix and the Broncos last week, pressuring Nix on 43% of his dropbacks. Despite playing against an underwhelming Bengals defensive line, Brissett was pressured at the league's highest rate (44%). The Seahawks could dial up an insane pressure rate here, leading to even less passing success for the Patriots. The Patriots are a run-first offense, and if they have any success on the ground, they’ll stick to it.

DALLAS COWBOYS (-6.5) vs. New Orleans Saints (-108)

Last week, Dallas had Deshaun Watson under duress all game, totaling 17 QB hits and 6 sacks, while stud Micah Parsons tied for the NFL lead in Week 1 with 11 pressures. This week I expect more of the same from the Cowboys defense. Brandon Thorn from Establish The Run has the Cowboys DL (2nd) vs. the Saints OL (28th) as one of the biggest mismatches of the week. Derek Carr is not the same passer under pressure; Carr's adjusted passer rating when facing pressure is 50 points worse than when he's not. I love the matchup for the Dallas passing game as well. Defensively, the Saints run a heavy dose of Cover 1 and Man (similar to Cleveland), which Dak has a history of having a lot of success against. Also, defensively, the Saints are going to be without their CB1 Marshon Lattimore, and starting FS Tyrann Mathieu is banged up as well (expected to play).

Juwan Johnson UNDER 26.5 Receiving Yards (-125; Prop City)

Juwan Johnson played just 35% of snaps last week and posted a receiving line of 2-26-1. Despite the good receiving line, Johnson was out-routed by fellow TE Foster Moreau 13-12; Juwan ran a route on less than 50% of Carr's dropbacks. This Cowboys defense is also significantly better than the poor Carolina defense they just faced. This is Kubiak's first season as the Saints OC, and it's possible he prefers Moreau to Juwan as his primary TE; also, Juwan is coming off of foot surgery to start the season, so it's possible they have him on a snap count and will ease him this early in the season.

For more betting content and takeaways, check out my Twitter (@JakeLotenberg2) and subscribe to our Discord. I’ll be tracking my best bet results at the end of each week and updating the article accordingly the following week.