Week 2 NFL Pick' Em & Survivor Pool Picks: Bouncing Back from the Bengals

Every season, there’s always that one wild week that wreaks havoc on survivor pools. It’s uncommon for it to strike in Week 1, but this year, the Bengals’ surprising flop sent shockwaves through most pools, knocking out a significant portion of the field. As we dive into Week 2, we’ll kick things off with a deep dive into pick ’em pool strategy and then guide you through the best approaches for navigating the chaos of survivor pools in the weeks ahead. We’ll be getting an assist from PoolGenius for some analysis.

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The Chalk

Many players get caught up in the details when discussing pick’em pools, often overlooking the bigger picture. While getting games right is crucial, the game theory aspect is often underemphasized. Pick’em pools are as much about probability and strategy as they are about knowing the Xs and Os. We’ll analyze how the public’s picks are trending each week and use that insight to guide our decisions.

Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) vs Las Vegas Raiders
Pick: Baltimore
Confidence Point Range: 10-12 Points

This is the largest spread of the week, and for good reason. The Ravens were a toe and a half away from knocking off the Chiefs in Week 1. Now, they get to play host to a Raiders squad that is fresh off of a 12-point loss to the Chargers. It was a disaster on a few fronts for Las Vegas after taking the lead early, but one glaring mistake on the coaching side makes me confident in picking on Las Vegas when the opportunity arises. Halfway through the 4th Quarter, the Raiders chose to punt from their own 43 with a 4th & 1 while down by six points. Per the Surrender Index, that ranked in the 99.9th percentile of cowardly punts. This game has the most lopsided pick spread with 98% of Yahoo Pick ‘Em Entries on Baltimore at the time of this writing. If the Raiders squeak out a cover, you’ll still be in line with the rest of your pool.

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Philadelphia
Confidence Point Range: 12-14 Points

This weekend, there are eight games where one team is receiving over 90% of the picks on their side, according to Yahoo! Leagues as of Wednesday morning. Notably, the line has already shifted three points from -3.5, showing some resistance at that level without pushing past a full touchdown, but it’s clear the public is heavily backing the Eagles in this “Battle of the Birds.”

The Eagles managed to overcome a two-point halftime deficit, finding their stride in the third quarter to edge past the Green Bay Packers. On the other hand, the Atlanta Falcons endured a frustrating loss, falling victim to the relentless field goals orchestrated by the dynamic duo of Justin Fields and Arthur Smith.

At this early stage of the season, I lean towards sticking with most of the chalk and finding opportunities to differentiate elsewhere. The Eagles should have no issue winning outright and less than a touchdown feels manageable.

Favorite Coin Flip

Each week, I'll outline my favorite matchup where neither team is being picked over 60% in public pools (when possible). These matchups are where pick 'em leagues are won in the long run. You may get lucky here and there with a big underdog that hits, but being right in these matchups that are perceived to be closer can be a huge advantage over the long run.

Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) at Green Bay Packers
Pick: Indianapolis Colts
Confidence Point Range: 8-10 Points

This is the only game that fits the bill this week. All signs are pointing to Jordan Love missing this contest, leading us to a Malik Willis-led Green Bay squad. Willis taking the reins is an unknown. His NFL performances don’t necessarily inspire much confidence. The Colts lost in Week 1 but had some splash plays. This total is dropping like a rock, moving from 47 to 41, and I think that favors the team that can put together a couple of explosive plays.

Surviving Survivor

Survivor pools are a unique strategic challenge where misplaced emphasis can lead to early exits. Many participants focus heavily on saving strong teams for later in the season, but this strategy can backfire if you overlook the week you're in. The fundamental principle of survivor pools is survival, after all.

Path A: Eliminated by Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1
Path B: Still Alive (Buffalo Week 1)
Path C: Still Alive (Seattle Week 1)

The Top Options

This week we have a pretty clear tier with the top two choices being Baltimore and the Los Angeles Chargers. Pool Genius has Baltimore projected for about 34% of survivor picks and Los Angeles at 19%.

We’ve already discussed Baltimore, so you can refer to the above analysis for my feelings on that game. I wouldn’t blame anyone for going in that direction but that’s not the path I’m choosing due to Baltimore’s future value.

For my “Path B” selection, I’m rolling with Los Angeles. The Carolina Panthers looked completely lost last weekend, and there’s little evidence to suggest a turnaround is imminent. Bryce Young struggled mightily in his debut, completing less than 50% of his passes and tossing two interceptions. Meanwhile, the Chargers don’t hold much future value, making them an ideal pick here.

For “Path C,” the decision becomes murkier if we’re planning to save Baltimore for later. The Eagles have more future value than most teams and will likely be a popular pick in matchups against teams like the Giants and Commanders.

The Texans stand out as an intriguing option, projected to be sub-10% in many pools. The Chicago offense looked shaky in Caleb Williams’ debut, and it’s hard to see them turning things around this week. The Texans are favored by 6.5 points, the third-highest spread of the week, yet they aren’t drawing much attention for some reason. Given their mixed future schedule, I feel confident taking them to win outright as our Path C choice.

The Bottom Line

Survivor pools are unpredictable, and early-season upsets like the Bengals’ Week 1 collapse can shake things up quickly. To navigate these waters, it’s crucial to balance strategic picks with data-driven insights, leveraging tools like Pool Genius and 4for4 to make informed decisions. This week, popular picks like the Ravens and Eagles offer solid options, but understanding game theory and public trends is key. Whether you’re sticking with chalk favorites or taking calculated risks on undervalued teams like the Texans, the goal is survival above all else.