NFL SGP Picks: Hyslop's Commanders vs. Bengals Parlay for MNF
If the beginning of this NFL Season was a boxing match, people would be wondering if they were going to stop the fight. I'm talking, headshots, body blows, and I'm pretty sure I caught a little vanilla nut tap yesterday. Lucky for us, I didn't hear a bell. In fact, I kind of feel like Rocky right before he knocked out that Russian in Rocky IV. Sometimes, it's nice to get hit in the mouth a few times before you go on the offensive, and that's exactly what we're doing with this Washington Commanders/Cincinnati Bengals game tonight. There are too many boosts to go around at DraftKings right now. Hell, FanDuel has a few, too. It's time to put these books to sleep once and for all.
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Monday Night Football SGP - Washington Commanders vs Cincinnati Bengals (+265) - FanDuel
Legs One & Two: Brian Robinson Jr. 40+ Rushing Yards & Brian Robinson Jr. Over 1.5 Receptions
I'm at FanDuel for this thing using their 50% profit boost. It feels like a hell of a deal since I still can't believe they have Brian Robinson's rushing total so low. Do they even watch football? We just saw this guy big-boy the New York Giants last week like it was nothing. I thought he was going to set a record, but he fell a little short. Still, he's done this in two straight weeks, and even though the Commanders are a touchdown dog on the road tonight, I still think Robinson will see some carries. The Bengals can't stop the run, and they are missing a couple of guys on their interior defensive line. My guess is that the Commanders try to keep the ball away from Joe Burrow, and the best way to do that is to run the ball and chew the clock. If that happens, we're gold.
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This is how we James Bond the books. We make them think we like a slow, run-heavy script; then we hit them with a reception move. Zig when they think we're going to zag. They'll never see it coming. I would think the Commanders fall behind at some point, which would game-script us home. After all, Jayden Daniels is a rookie, and once he's forced to throw every down, he'll likely check down to his backs. But even if that script doesn't play out, Robinson was targeted three times in the win over the Giants last week. He was just as involved in the pass game as he was the week before. My point is, he's going for 40+ rushing yards, and he's catching at least two passes. Nothing can stop this.
Leg Three : Austin Ekeler 2+ Receptions
Here's where the haters are going to get a little angry. Honestly, I don't blame them. We're talking the over in receptions on two running backs in the same backfield? What kind of shit is this? Let me explain, there is a thin line between "crazy" and "genius" and we're skating it my friends. Honestly, though, I think we're firmly on the "genius" side. For starters, the Bengals are 6.5-point favorites in this thing. The Commanders are supposed to fall behind, and when that happens, Ekeler flies over this number. It's just the way the game goes. But last week against the Giants, a game the Commanders won, Ekeler still had three receptions on three targets. From where I'm sitting, it doesn't even matter what game script plays out here. Ekeler is catching at least two passes. And when he does, we'll be stuffing cash in our pockets for hours. Feels right.
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Lines and prices accurate at the time of posting in Discord