Week 4 NFL Player Prop Bets: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen

Sep 27, 2024

Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

I really thought Week 3 was going to be fantastic. We started it off with a winner on Thursday Night with KJ Osborn putting on a masterclass of cardio and blocking. He played a ton and didn’t even draw a single target. It was almost all downhill from there, with one bad break after another.

Quentin Johnston saw just two targets all game, one of them was a broken play though and went for 27 yards. He busted the under of 35 on his next and only other target all game. Aaron Jones not only somehow saw a positive game script with the Vikings as 6-point underdogs but also saw a season-high in carry-share. Despite that, he still only had 40 rushing yards until the mid-4th quarter and ripped off a long touchdown, sinking out under 47.5. Derek Carr was pressured early and often after two starting OL went down mid-game. Without time to throw there was no shot of hitting his passing yardage over.

We predicted that Erick All would run fewer than the 15 routes he ran the week before. Which he did. Yet he caught 4 passes on those 10 routes run, an absurd target per route run rate. Brian Robinson Jr turned 16 carries into just 33 yards as the Bengals put an emphasis on stopping the run and, as a result, were blowtorched in the passing game. If you would have told me Brian Robinson would get 16 carries against the Bengals run defense missing both of their starting DT’s I probably would have bet even more that he would be able to get more than 50 rushing yards

The best part about the NFL is that we have a new week ahead of us, we will get right back on track, and we are still up for the season. I have already released multiple plays and will continue to do so in our discord

Get a betting subscription for as low as $10 for 2 months or just $10 for your first month with code: TROPHY!

Also, make sure to join the discord to get all of the same numbers we do!

Week 4 NFL Player Props

Dak Prescott U 35.5 pass attempts (-109 DraftKings)

Playable everywhere. Dak's pass attempts have been massively inflated the past two games due to brutal game script. The Cowboys were down 14-3 after the 1st quarter in both games the last two weeks and down 2+ scores at halftime in both as well. This led to 51 and 39 pass attempts. In Week 1, with more positive game script, Dak only finished with 32 pass attempts. They head into Metlife as 5.5-point favorites and should see neutral or positive game scripts.

On top of this, Coachspeak Index has picked up some great clips from McCarthy saying multiple times they need to run the ball more.

09/22/24. HC McCarthy [postgame presser]

"The rushing attempts aren’t where we need them to be right now"

09/24/24, HC Mike McCarthy

"We need more rushing attempts"

There is no better spot to get the run going than against the Giants, who have allowed 5.4 YPC to opposing running backs and looked wildly susceptible to everyone except for the Browns, who went pass-heavy and essentially only ran out of the shotgun. I expect a heavy dose of Zeke, Dowdle, and maybe even some Deuce Vaughn here.

Risk 1.09 units to win 1 unit