Breakout Receiver Model: Week 5
Welcome back to the breakout receiver model for Week 5 of the NFL season. The model started off fairly strong last week, but it tends to get even better as we get into the middle of the year. It's also especially helpful as we hit the bye weeks, and we need to dig deeper into the player pool in both DFS and our season-long leagues.
Each week we'll use it to identify players who may be over- or underperforming the value of their opportunity, whether that be due to luck, skill, or a variety of the two. We'll use the model to identify buy-low and sell-high candidates for season-long players. Then we'll analyze the main slate in an attempt to locate players with a higher likelihood of hitting a ceiling performance than the public perceives.
About the Breakout Receiver Model
The 4for4 data science team, in conjunction with our award-winning projections expert John Paulsen, created the current iteration receiver "buy-low" model in order to use machine learning to identify under-performing wide receivers and tight ends on the verge of a breakout performance. The model utilizes historical data and recent player performance to help determine players who have received opportunity that is typically more valuable than recent production would indicate. This particular model's features include air yards and routes-run data as a means of determining opportunity. It also utilizes a proprietary efficiency metric that looks back at the past 10 weeks of individual player performance, all to better help predict the likelihood of a bounce-back in a player's future production. The model most heavily weights the last three weeks of data.
Last Week's Model-Predicted Hits
- All Premium Content
- The most Accurate Rankings Since 2010
- Expert Draft Picks w/DraftHero
- Highest Scoring Lineup + Top Available Players w/LeagueSync
- ...and much much more
