Week 4 NFL Pick'Em Plays Recap

This NFL season, we are offering a Dub Club service for Pick'em plays on PrizePicks, Underdog, Pick6, and more. The product will be led by Jake Lotenberg, and plays will come from himself, Connor Allen, Ryan Noonan, and the rest of the betting team at 4for4.

We will be primarily focusing on player props, and plays will include official bets that we release on legal Sportsbooks, market outliers, early lines, and anything we deem as EV. Plays will be pushed out to our discord, email, and the Dub Club app through DubClub's technology.

A DubClub subscription will also get you access to our pick’em discord channels, where you can run plays or questions by anyone on our team and interact with our 4for4 community. All of the plays we put out should be found on PrizePicks, Underdog, Vivid, Betr, Sleeper, Pick6, and pretty much any of the pick’em sites.

Week 4 Recap

Week 4 Individual Leg Record: 9-9; Win Rate: 50%

Week 4 Entry Record: 0-5, -$500 (assumes betting $100 an entry)

Overall Individual Leg Record: 48-35; Win Rate: 57.83%

Overall Entry Record: 3-21, -$200 (assumes betting $100 an entry)

Every week in our Discord, I write a brief recap of our results and update our overall record, applying our win rate to the payout chart (shown below). The goal with our DubClub product is winning long-term and full transparency of our plays.

Week 4 was a pretty frustrating one. There were definitely a couple of plays I wish I could have back, but there were some bad runouts on a few plays. Here’s a quick look back at some Week 4 plays with a brief recap:

Justin Watson UNDER 1.5 Receptions (LOSS)

This Watson bet was one of my favorites of the week. Watson came into this game losing playing time to Juju Smith-Schuster and has been a cardio king for the last couple of seasons. Unfortunately, Rashee Rice went down with a knee injury on the first drive, and Watson's playing time obviously spiked. Watson continued his typical wind sprints and was only targeted on 12% of his routes. Holding Watson under 1.5 was practically dead once Rice went down.

Carson Steele OVER 12 Carries (LOSS)

Steele had just run the ball 17 times last week; the Chiefs were 7.5-point favorites against an injured Chargers front seven. I played this because I thought Steele’s role was safe; he ran well against the Falcons and out-carried Perine 17-6. Unfortunately for us, Steele fumbled on his first carry of the game… After Steele’s fumble, he only logged one more rush over the next 3.5 quarters. This is a bet I would want to take back; Steele is a 2024 UDFA and hasn’t earned the coaching staff's trust. Steele had a short leash, and this is a backfield situation to steer clear of.

Gerald Everett UNDER 10.5 Receiving Yards (WIN)

One of the biggest preseason surprises was Gerald Everett overtaking Cole Kmet as the team’s primary TE. In Week 1, Everett out-routed Kmet 21-11. Since Week 1, that difference has completely flipped, and in Week 3, Kmet out-routed Everett 41-17. With the return of Keenan Allen and Everett giving way to Kmet as the primary TE, this was an easy bet. Everett’s playing time in Week 4 took an even more significant dip, and he only ran 5 routes to Kmet’s 20. Everett wasn’t targeted once, and this will be one of the most sweat-free bets of the year.

Amari Cooper OVER 55.5 Receiving Yards (LOSS)

Coop had just had his best game of the season against the Giants, 7/86/2. This Raiders defense had just been ripped to shreds by Andy Dalton and was now missing their top pass rusher in Maxx Crosby. Coop had plenty of chances to go over this number; Coop had one of the worst drops of the week; Deshaun threw a perfect ball down the field to him, which smacked him right in the chest, popped up in the air, and was intercepted (it was all over social media… it was terrible). Also, late in the 4Q, Coop had an 82-yard TD called back for a phantom holding call on the OL. Deshaun and Coop finally clicked last week and were facing a weak and depleted defense. I expected them to be able to beat them often through the air, and this is a bet that I would make again.

Zay Flowers OVER 4.5 Receptions (LOSS)

In the Ravens' two competitive games, Weeks 1 and Week 2, Zay had 18 combined targets. Last week, against the Cowboys, Lamar only dropped back 17 times, and on Sunday, Lamar only dropped back 20 times. I thought their low passing volume against the Cowboys gave us a bit of a discount on his receiving lines this past Sunday, and the Bills had given up the most receptions to slot WRs through 3 weeks. Unfortunately, the Ravens blew out their opponent again and did not have to throw the ball much at all. I thought we were safe from a blowout in this game, considering the Bills have looked like a juggernaut to start the year and were slight dogs. I was wrong. This game was a disaster for the Bills, and in a close game, I would make this bet again.

For tracking purposes, we use the standard Underdog payouts: 2 legs are +200, 3 legs are +500, 4 legs are +900, and 5 legs are +1900. Using this payout structure and applying our win rate to each pick level would have resulted in a positive ROI at each pick level (2/3/4/5). For example, if you played each of our plays in groups of 3, you would have a 16.05% expected ROI so far this season.

If interested in joining DubClub, you can get your first week for only $1!

We will be tracking in two different ways. First, we will track our individual record on all props released. We will also track our entry record in the groups in which we released the props. We will refer to the individual legs as “plays,” and the overall groupings as “entries.” This week, we had 18 individual props released and five different entries. Although it is up to each person to determine how much exposure and risk they want to take on, I recommend people not only take all the plays in one entry but mix and match as well. For example, when I release an entry with five legs, if possible, I suggest you use those individual legs to create different two-, three-, and four combo entries.

This is strictly a pick'em product, so we’ll be placing parlays with every entry. When placing these parlays on pick'em sites, it’s highly unlikely you will win more overall entries than you lose. I want everyone to understand that you should not expect to win more entries than you lose.

That said, I want you guys to understand how often we need to win to break even. Jack Miller from Establish the Run conducted research and wrote an article on the math behind all the pick’em games. In his article, he shares the entry and individual pick rate needed to break even at each pick level (2/3/4/5). The article does a really good job explaining pick’em payouts and optimal strategies. See below for a snippet of the article:

2 Leg entry win rate to break even: 33.33% — Individual Leg win rate to break even: 57.7%

3 Leg entry win rate to break even: 16.7% — Individual Leg win rate to break even: 55%

4 Leg entry win rate to break even: 10% — Individual Leg win rate to break even: 56.2%

5 Leg entry win rate to break even: 5% — Individual Leg win rate to break even: 54.9%