Week 5 Pick Em & Survivor: Second Chances

The year of the upset continues. At this point in the year, for Pick ‘Em Leagues, the standings start to take shape and you can better decide which direction you’d like to go whether you’re trying to protect your lead or make a comeback. We’ll kick things off with a dive into pick ’em pool strategy and then guide you through the best approaches for navigating the chaos of survivor pools in the weeks ahead. As always, we’ll be getting an assist from PoolGenius for some of our analysis.

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The Chalk

Many players get caught up in the details when discussing pick’em pools, often overlooking the bigger picture. While getting games right is crucial, the game theory aspect is often underemphasized. Pick’em pools are as much about probability and strategy as they are about knowing the Xs and Os. We’ll analyze how the public’s picks are trending each week and use that insight to guide our decisions. We did nail the Broncos and Bills in this section last week for some hefty confidence points, so hopefully that makes up for the survivor situation.

Washington Commanders (-3) vs Cleveland Browns
Pick: Washington
Confidence Point Range: 8-10 Points

This game seems pretty straightforward. It’s a tale of two teams, one ascending while the other drops like a rock. The Commanders have a rookie quarterback on the rise. They’re averaging 6.1 yards per play compared to the Browns' 3.9 yards. It’s no secret that Cleveland’s strength lies in its defense. I tend to lean toward the stronger offense anyway, but with Washington playing well and being at home, we’re rolling Commanders here.

Minnesota (-2.5) vs New York Jets [London Game]
Pick: Minnesota
Confidence Point Range: 6-8 Points

Once again, we’re looking to roll with the stronger offense here. The Vikings are averaging six yards per play and 0.5 points per play. The Jets are down at 4.8 and 0.3, respectively. Minnesota has multiple quality wins already this year. The Jets, on the other hand, are sitting at a disappointing 2-2 after a home loss to Denver last weekend. There’s a search party being organized for Garrett Wilson’s production. The offense isn’t clicking, even Breece Hall has been disappointing to this point in the season. They could, theoretically, put it together but the Vikings are rolling and should clear this team by more than a field goal.

Favorite Coin Flip

Each week, I'll outline my favorite matchup where neither team is being picked over 60% in public pools (when possible). These matchups are where pick 'em leagues are won in the long run. You may get lucky here and there with a big underdog that hits, but being right in these matchups that are perceived to be closer can be a huge advantage over the long run.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Tampa Bay
Confidence Point Range: 11-13 Points

Tampa Bay laid an absolute egg against Denver two weeks ago but they got back on track in a decisive win against Philadelphia. Baker Mayfield seems to have put something together this year. He’s completing over 70% of his passes and has thrown 8 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions through the first month of the season. The Falcons have played well but their two wins have been by a combined three points. I like this game to come down to the wire and I think that Tampa Bay wins outright.

Surviving Survivor

Survivor pools are a unique strategic challenge where misplaced emphasis can lead to early exits. Many participants focus heavily on saving strong teams for later in the season, but this strategy can backfire if you overlook the week you're in. The fundamental principle of survivor pools is survival, after all.

Path A: Eliminated by Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1
Path B: Eliminated by Cincinnati Bengals in Week 3
Path C: Eliminated by the New York Jets

The Top Options

When I signed up to write this article, I had no idea of the chaos and heartache I was setting myself up for. This has been a weird year, for sure, but the beat goes on. Second Chance Survivor pools are kicking in now. We’ll do a high-level analysis.

Seattle, San Francisco, and Washington are the three top teams from a popularity perspective in survivor pools this weekend. Considering how 2024 has gone, that means two of those teams will probably lose! Whether you're still in or kicking off a second-chance pool this week, Seattle would be my favorite option here. They have the least future value out of the three top teams and are -265 favorites on the moneyline.

If you're a little skittish about using one of the most popular options, I like the Bears quite a bit this week. Carolina turned back into a pumpkin last week and the Bears have essentially no future value.

The Bottom Line

As the year of upsets continues, both pick ‘em and survivor pool strategies require a careful blend of probability, strategy, and game theory. We'll blend all of it together with some data-driven insights from PoolGenius. We've outlined our favorite picks here but some of your decisions, especially in Pick Em, have to be driven by how you've performed thus far. If you're ahead, I'd lean towards going with the crowd. If you start falling behind, it's time to go contrarian.