O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 6

Oct 09, 2024

Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, including an offensive line's positive and negative impact on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below, I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA —one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and, when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches, will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered.

Editor's Note: Check out the complete set of Week 6 rankings here.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what offensive line/defense matchups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Quarterback Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
11	ATL	CAR	30	19
1	DET	DAL	16	15
7	GB	ARI	22	15
6	BAL	WAS	20	14
3	IND	TEN	17	14
19	CHI	JAX	32	13
14	WAS	BAL	26	12
17	SF	SEA	27	10
12	DAL	DET	18	6
26	LAR	BYE	31	5
27	NO	TB	31	4
5	PHI	CLE	9	4
21	SEA	SF	24	3
2	BUF	NYJ	4	2
16	MIA	BYE	17	1
24	PIT	LVR	25	1
13	CIN	NYG	13	0
4	KC	BYE	4	0
10	MIN	BYE	10	0
9	NYJ	BUF	8	-1
30	NYG	CIN	28	-2
31	TEN	IND	29	-2
22	ARI	GB	19	-3
8	LAC	DEN	2	-6
18	HOU	NE	10	-8
23	CAR	ATL	14	-9
15	DEN	LAC	6	-9
25	CLE	PHI	15	-10
32	NE	HOU	21	-11
20	TB	NO	5	-15
28	LVR	PIT	7	-21
29	JAX	CHI	1	-28

Falcons @ Panthers

Though right tackle Kaleb McGary may have allowed two sacks in his first action since Week 3, his return also coincided with Kirk Cousins’ best game in a Falcons uniform. In a 36-30 overtime win against the Buccaneers, Atlanta accrued 500+ yards through the air, with Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Darnell Mooney all hitting big in fantasy.

While some (including me) wondered how well Mooney would perform as a bona fide WR2 after being disregarded in Chicago over the last couple of years, those worries have proven unfounded. Since a clunker of a first week (1-15-0 on three targets), the former Bear has put together 315 yards and three touchdowns on 37 targets between Weeks 2-5. He should be considered a high-end WR3 for fantasy purposes in Week 6 against a Panthers defense that has allowed 0.17 EPA per dropback on the year, the third-highest mark in the league.

Packers vs. Cardinals

The Packers had a surprisingly rough go of it against a previously giving defense in Los Angeles in Week 5, converting only one of eight third-down opportunities (12.5%) and allowing three sacks, half of their season-long total heading into the game. They’ll have a chance to right the ship after that 19-24 loss as they host an Arizona Cardinals team that ranks 28th in pressure rate (26.1%) and has allowed 34+ points on two occasions.

The Cardinals have been more susceptible to the run than the pass through five games, but it has opened up plenty of opportunities to gash them with play-action, where they have allowed the fourth-highest yards per attempt (9.9) and sixth-highest completion rate (75.7%). This bodes well for Jordan Love, who has the third-highest adjusted yards per attempt (12.6) on play-action passes, trailing only Brock Purdy (12.8) and Tua Tagovailoa (14.1) on the year.

If Green Bay decides to lean on the run here, we could have issues “getting there” with volume plays, but luckily for us, Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks have both proven that they’re more than capable of popping up for huge gains.

Lions @ Cowboys

Dealing with an early bye for all of the Lions’ fantasy pieces was a tad bit annoying for managers, but we’re gifted with a matchup in Dallas in which the total has soared to 52.5, and the Cowboys’ defense is reeling. Defensive end Sam Williams was declared out for the season back in training camp, DeMarcus Lawrence hit the IR last week, Micah Parsons seems like a longshot for Week 6, and Marshawn Kneeland is out for at least a month.

A brutal string of injuries to their pass rush has left them relying on rotational players to log very meaningful snaps. It worked well enough against the Giants and Steelers offensive line, but they’re up for a much tougher matchup against a well-rested Lions unit that has allowed the sixth-lowest adjusted sack rate (5.9%) through their four games.

Start all your Lions, and look for a bounce-back game (in terms of target share) for Jameson Williams, who headed into the bye with only five combined targets in the previous two weeks.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Texans @ Patriots

It looks as though Drake Maye is getting thrown into the fire ahead of Week 6, and though we should assume that he brings a spark to the offense, there’s not much he can do about a beat-up offensive line. Currently ranking dead last in pressure rate allowed (46.2%), they don’t fair much better in other metrics. They rank 30th in adjusted sack rate (11.1%), 27th in running back yards before contact (1.32), and 28th in blown block rate (2.85%).

We should be excited about the long-term implications of a new quarterback in New England —particularly if we want to consider anyone on the team fantasy-viable— but for now, let’s just focus on earning points by playing defenses across from this O-line unit.

Buccaneers @ Saints

The Saints’ explosive start to this season feels like a distant memory to this point, and a lot of that has to do with them having to dig deep into their offensive line depth. Erik McCoy, Shane Lemieux, Lucas Patrick, and now Connor McGovern have been slated as starters at the center position but have all had to move around due to their own, or others, injuries.

This weakness up the middle was incredibly apparent in their Week 5 Monday Night Football loss where Derek Carr was deemed “under pressure” on an insane 51.7% of his dropbacks, resulting in some brutal hits, including the last one that should have him sidelined for multiple weeks. That means the Buccaneers will take their turn against this line, protecting Jake Haener and/or Spencer Rattler. They are easily streamable anywhere you need D/ST help.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Running Back Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
1	DET	DAL	29	28
9	NYJ	BUF	31	22
11	ATL	CAR	32	21
6	BAL	WAS	25	19
5	PHI	CLE	21	16
3	IND	TEN	14	11
8	LAC	DEN	19	11
19	CHI	JAX	27	8
2	BUF	NYJ	9	7
7	GB	ARI	12	5
26	LAR	BYE	31	5
18	HOU	NE	22	4
24	PIT	LVR	28	4
15	DEN	LAC	17	2
16	MIA	BYE	17	1
17	SF	SEA	18	1
4	KC	BYE	4	0
10	MIN	BYE	10	0
20	TB	NO	16	-4
13	CIN	NYG	8	-5
25	CLE	PHI	20	-5
31	TEN	IND	26	-5
29	JAX	CHI	23	-6
21	SEA	SF	15	-6
14	WAS	BAL	7	-7
22	ARI	GB	13	-9
12	DAL	DET	3	-9
23	CAR	ATL	5	-18
28	LVR	PIT	10	-18
30	NYG	CIN	11	-19
27	NO	TB	6	-21
32	NE	HOU	4	-28

Jets vs. Bills

It’s been quite the week for the New York Jets, but they have a chance to “rally the troops,” as it were, against a Bills defense that has allowed a league-high 5.2 YPA and ranks 31st in RB aFPA on the year.

While the Jets' offensive line hasn’t been anything to write home about, rookie Olu Fashanu has been serviceable since being thrust into action following Morgan Moses going down. Tyron Smith has —rather remarkably— played 100% of the snaps over at left tackle, as he and right guard Alijah Vera-Tucker have been lynchpins of the unit.

Breece Hall has not been the top-3 fantasy option we were all hoping for back in August, but this situation feels like a fantastic bounce-back spot with the team prepared to do what it can to avoid spiraling into (another) lost season.

Ravens vs. Commanders

Will this game go over 80 total points? It sure feels like it could. Both teams are absolutely clicking on offense, running through quarterbacks who feel like they can make any play they want, from any area of the field, which has led to them scoring a laughable 38.0 points per game over their last two weeks combined. With Washington’s improving play from their O-line unit, you could honestly target either backfield (or passing attack, for that matter), but the Ravens’ side of the ball is just in a perfect spot.

Baltimore is getting such great push at the point of attack, and with Derrick Henry bowling through and around defenders, it’s almost an unstoppable combination. With a healthy Ronnie Stanley back to playing at an elite level, the combination of left guard Patrick Mekari and Tyler Linderbaum is causing a rippling effect into the second layer of the defense. According to Sports Info Solutions, Henry averages 7.0 YPA and 64.6 yards per game when toting the rock to the left side of the line. On those 46 attempts, he is averaging 3.61 yards before contact. Before! There are 18 qualifying running backs (out of 59) that aren’t averaging a higher YPA in general, let alone before contact with a defender.

Anyway, start everyone in this game, and even Justice Hill, if you need a desperation Flex option.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad matchup through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing: