Week 6 Best Bets on Rebet: Jake's Best Bets
Every week I’ll be posting a few of my favorite plays in this article with brief write-ups of each play. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward.
Week 5 Recap: 2-1, +$86 (assuming $100 units)
Overall: 8-7, -$46 (assuming $100 units)
Last week was OK as we finished 2-1, +$86, but the Rhamondre run-out kind of sucked. As expected, the playing time gap between Gibson and Rhamondre tightened big time; both played 28 total snaps. Unfortunately for us, Rhamondre had a single-game season-high 7.3 yards per carry on 12 carries for 88 yards. The angle was there on Rhamondre; it just didn't go our way, it happens. Mack Hollins u29.5 receiving yards was a massive sweat; I was shocked to see him get six targets and Curtis Samuel only three targets. Even though Mack led the team in targets, as expected, he was not a full-time player and only ran a route on 23/36 Allen dropbacks. Amari's o53.5 rec yards was an unnecessary sweat; I knew Watson was bad, but my god, is he terrible.
Week 6 NFL Best Bets
Elijah Moore UNDER 26.5 Receiving Yards (-111) Prop City
Released in Discord on 10/10. Elijah Moore posted his lowest route total all season last week, only running a route on 26/38 Deshaun dropbacks. Moore's TPPR is only 0.12, and he has a very low aDOT of 5.1; in the two weeks with Njoku in the lineup, his aDOT was an even worse 3.8. The cherry on top is that Deshaun is horrific. Njoku didn't practice Wednesday, but reporters out of Cleveland said he has "no injury designation," so I'm assuming the missed practice was rest. Even if Njoku doesn't play, this is still ok, as he went under this mark w/o Njoku in the lineup in 2/3 games. UPDATE: Njoku is good to go for Sunday’s game vs. PHI.
Terry McLaurin OVER 4.5 Receptions (-118) Prop City
Terry has been targeted on 34% and 29% of his routes in the last two weeks. Washington now faces off against the #1 run defense in the entire league as 6.5-point dogs. Brian Robinson is a GTD, and I expect him to be out or limited. The Commanders should lean on the passing game more than they have in recent weeks, and being big underdogs should lead to more dropbacks for Jayden.
Chuba Hubbard OVER 59.5 Rushing Yards (-119) Prop City
Since Andy Dalton has taken over at QB, Hubbard has been an absolute workhorse for the Panthers offense, averaging 21.7 touches, 6.1 yards per carry, and 128.3 total yards over his last three games. Hubbard has cleared this number in every game this season besides Week 1, where he only had six carries in a 47-10 blowout loss to the Saints. I like Carolina to hang around in this game, and that should mean a heavy dose of Hubbard. Hubbard has also shown an ability to rip off long runs, including a 38-yard TD last weekend.
Three bets so far this week, but be sure to get in our Discord, as I’ll be pushing out plays throughout the weekend. Important: You may notice some of the bets posted in this article either have already settled (Thursday Night game) or some of the odds/lines may have moved. The best way to get access to the bets as they are released is to join our subscriber-only Discord. All of our staff’s plays are released there, and that is the best way to guarantee you get the original line we post. Join the Discord to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team. Go to Channels & Roles and customize your Discord experience.
You can join our Discord for free here. Make sure to add the Rebet Channel to your channel list and turn on alerts for @Rebet Ping to get notifications for the bets as they are released.
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I also manage the DubClub pick’em plays and through five weeks, we have released a total of 99 individual props (30 total entries):
Individual play record of: 59-40 (59.60% win rate)
Using Underdog Fantasy's payout structure, applying our win rate to each pick level would have resulted in a positive ROI at each pick level (2/3/4/5). For example, if you played each of our plays in groups of 3, you would have a 27% expected ROI so far this season!
If interested in joining DubClub, you can get your first week for only $1!
If you want push notifications for all of these bets, make sure to join our subscriber-only discord!
This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks and those from the rest of the betting staff. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.
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