Week 8 Best Bets on Rebet: Jake's Best Bets

Every week I’ll be posting a few of my favorite plays in this article with brief write-ups of each play. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward.

Week 7 Recap: 3-1, +$177 (assuming $100 units)

Overall: 15-8, $531 (assuming $100 units)

So far this week, we have released four plays, and we already have a nice start to the week with a win on Demarcus Robinson last night! We finished 3-1 last week, losing the under on Mason Tipton's 2.5 receptions, which, in hindsight, is probably something I would take back. I thought Tipton might be the WR3 in this offense and finish third on the team in routes among WRs behind Means and Wilson. Unfortunately, he was not third on the route run totem pole and finished with six catches. The Saints being completely inept offensively didn't help, and Rattler almost dropped back 50 times. Misread by me on Tipton.

The wins from last week were: Ja’ Lynn Polk under 27.5 receiving yards, Brock Purdy over 30.5 pass attempts, and Justin Herbert over 196.5 pass yards. Polk was a slam dunk bet. Mayo came out and bashed him publicly, and Polk himself expressed frustration on social media. Coaches and players clashing publicly does not equal on-field success. Polk closed on domestic books like DraftKings and FanDuel at around 15.5. In regards to Purdy, the Chiefs' defense has been one of the best in the NFL this season and one of the NFL's best against the run. As I expected, Mason and the 49ers had no success on the ground, leading to Purdy dropping back a bunch, which made over 30.5 pass attempts great. Herbert: Have to admit it felt weird taking an over in the Chargers passing game, but OC Greg Roman said that we'd see Herbert beating teams with his arm again, which was exactly what he did, throwing for 349 yards. The Cardinals are one of the worst teams against the pass, and they were exposed by the talented Herbert, even with the lack of weapons LAC has.

Week 8 NFL Best Bets

Demarcus Robinson OVER 25.5 Receiving Yards (-103) Prop City – WIN

Released in Discord on 10/24. Despite Kupp's and Puka’s return, Robinson should maintain his 85%+ route participation as the Rams almost always operate out of 11 personnel (3-WR sets). Robinson has a 17-yard aDOT and also posted his season-high TPRR with Kupp in the lineup (Week 1). Robinson has underperformed lately because he is not the #1 guy, and even with Kupp and Puka back, we should see Robinson return to his normal role. The Rams should also be forced into an increased pass rate against a good Vikings run defense. They're 3-point home dogs, so there's a possibility of them playing from behind, which would also up the pass rate.

De'Von Achane OVER 3.5 Receptions (+130) Prop City

Released in Discord on 10/24. De'Von Achane caught 14 balls in the first two weeks with Tua at QB. Getting +130 on 3.5 is a steal with how he's used in the offense with Tua. With Mostert back and healthy, Achane should have more flexibility to be used in the pass game as well, since Mostert can take some of the work at RB. This game also has a healthy 46.5 point total, so we should see some offense here.

Sean Tucker UNDER 1.5 Receptions (+136) Prop City

Released in Discord on 10/25. Rachaad White is the team's primary pass catcher out of the backfield. From Jahnke at PFF, Rachaad White played 11/12 third downs (the one went to Bucky), and Sean Tucker ran only eight routes. It looks like Bucky will be out, but he returned to practice today, which at least opens the possibility for him to play. I like this with Bucky out because the Bucs coaching staff has stated numerous times that Rachaad is their go-to guy in the passing game; IF Bucky plays, this is an absolute smash. I like the big + money here.

Jonnu Smith UNDER 30.5 Receiving Yards (-112) Prop City

Released in Discord on 10/25. With Tua back at the helm, we should see an increased target share for Tyreek, Waddle, and Achane. Smith's numbers are slightly inflated, having posted big games in the last two weeks (5/62/0 and 7/96/1). Jonnu, in the past two weeks, has disgustingly been targeted more than Tyreek and Waddle, a trend that I would bet my bankroll on that does not continue and shouldn't continue because Tyreek and Waddle are two of the best weapons in the NFL and should be targeted as such. As Evan Silva notes in his weekly matchups column, "Jonnu has yet to play on 50% of snaps in a single game this season and Smith has been a sporadically impact role player with a basement-low floor."

Be sure to get in our Discord as I may push out plays over the weekend as well. Important: You may notice some of the bets posted in this article either have already settled (Thursday Night game) or some of the odds/lines may have moved. The best way to get access to the bets as they are released is to join our subscriber-only Discord. All of our staff’s plays are released there, and that is the best way to guarantee you get the original line we post. Join the Discord to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team. Go to Channels & Roles and customize your Discord experience.

You can join our Discord for free here. Make sure to add the Rebet Channel to your channel list and turn on alerts for @Rebet Ping to get notifications for the bets as they are released.

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DubClub

I also manage the DubClub pick’em plays, and through seven weeks, we have released a total of 132 individual props (42 total entries).

Individual play record of: 77-55 (58.33% win rate)

Using Underdog Fantasy's payout structure, applying our win rate to each pick level would have resulted in a massive ROI at each pick level (2/3/4/5). For example, if you played each of our plays in groups of 5, you would have a 35.09% expected ROI this season!

If interested in joining DubClub, you can get your first week for only $1!

If you want push notifications for all of these bets, make sure to join our subscriber-only discord!

This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks and those from the rest of the betting staff. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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