O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 9

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, including an offensive line's positive and negative impact on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below, I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA —one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and, when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches, will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered.

Editor's Note: Check out the complete set of Week 9 rankings here.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what offensive line/defense matchups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Chiefs vs. Buccaneers

Though the interior of the Chiefs offensive line is the strength of the unit, comprising three of the best options at their respective positions, the tackle duo of Jawaan Taylor and Wanya Morris should get their due, as well. Taylor, in particular, is having a great second season in Kansas City, allowing three pressures in only two games, two-or-less in the remaining six games, while allowing only one sack on the year. He also blanked Maxx Crosby, who entered the contest with seven sacks on the year, in Week 8.

Tampa Bay certainly doesn’t have a Maxx Crosby, and they don’t have a secondary to shy away from, either. The Bucs are allowing the ninth-highest QB rating on the year (98.9), with opposing passing attacks averaging 274.9 yards per game, the fourth-highest. This matchup bodes well for newly-acquired DeAndre Hopkins, who earned only three targets in his first game, though he ran 14 routes, the same amount as Mecole Hardman, and one less than Kareem Hunt. Hopkins should be something closer to a full-time player in Week 9, which pushes him up into WR3 consideration.

Falcons vs. Cowboys

Hopefully, you didn’t drop Kyle Pitts, and hopefully, you didn’t write off Darnell Mooney’s career-resurgent performances. Both came through in Week 8, with Pitts looking like a man possessed on at least two of his four catches. Mooney now sits as a locked-in WR2 option in good matchups after hitting 10+ fantasy points in four of his last seven games and will look to continue putting up juicy box scores for at least these next two games, with the Cowboys up next.

Much of the Cowboys’ woes on defense can be attributed to injuries, but it looks as though we’ll get at least one more week of aggressively targeting them in fantasy matchups. Marshawn Kneeland and DeMarcus Lawrence are guaranteed to be out, while Jordan Phillips and all-world pass-rusher Micah Parsons are in the questionable-to-doubtful range for Week 9. Since Parsons went down back in Week 4, the Cowboys have a 30.2% pressure rate (22nd), while opposing quarterbacks have a pristine 120.0 QB rating, the highest mark in the league over that span.

The Falcons O-line, who have allowed the ninth-lowest adjusted sack rate (6.3%), are more than capable of handling this thin defensive front, which puts all the usual suspects —Pitts, Mooney, Drake London, and even Kirk Cousins— in must-start territory, unless you have a top-3 option to place ahead of them.

Broncos @ Ravens

By accomplishing the first three-passing-touchdown performance of his young career in Week 8, Bo Nix is incredibly the QB4 in points per game (21.9) over the last month of action. Granted, this has come against rather weak competition, but the Baltimore Ravens currently rank 29th in QB aFPA, after allowing 341.2 passing yards and 30.2 points per game over this last month.

While we had seen some inconsistency and brutally low aDOTs out of Nix at the beginning of the season (6.0 in Week 1, 6.6 in Week 3), we have seen him test the defense deep more often as of late while continuing to be a pain in the ass for defenses to get to the ground (12.2% pressure-to-sack rate, fifth-best). When he does throw out of pressure, Courtland Sutton has been the main beneficiary, ranking 14th in targets (16) while the QB is “under pressure.”

It would be nice to see a better connection between Nix and former college teammate Troy Franklin, but his usage plummeted back to the fantasy wasteland (1-6-0 on two targets) in Week 8, after he had 18.1 combined half-PPR points in Weeks 6+7. As it stands, Nix (high-end QB2) and Sutton (high-end WR3) are the only startable commodities in a great matchup, but with continued growth out of Nix behind this great offensive line, this could be a situation to keep an eye on for the fantasy playoffs.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Commanders @ Giants

I’ve found myself rooting for the Daniel Jones underdog story for the better part of two years now, but I fear the writing is on the wall. In dark, dark ink. Jones is once again near the bottom of pretty much any quarterback metric you care to look at and is still brutal when facing pressure. Among 37 qualifying QBs, Jones ranks 32nd in QB rating (51.7) and 34th in yards per attempt (3.7). That in and of itself wouldn’t be so terrible if the Giants didn’t rank 30th in pressure rate allowed (39.3%), continuing a trend that has held strong for years now.

Over these last two seasons, Jones now has eight passing touchdowns and 11 interceptions while taking 3.9 sacks per game. That would pace out to ~ 67 sacks over the course of a full season, which would be the fourth-most in the history of the NFL. And that’s with him leaving games due to injury. As left tackle Andrew Thomas is forced to set his sights on the 2025 season; it’s safe to say we should continue streaming defenses against the Giants whenever we have a chance.

Titans vs. Patriots

At the time of writing, Drake Maye’s status is still up in the air, with the quarterback reportedly in the third phase of the five-phase concussion protocol. The Titans’ D/ST is certainly a stronger play if Jacoby Brissett is behind center, but it’s worth a look in deeper leagues (and DFS), even if Maye is good to go.

Though the Patriots’ struggling offensive line looks better when Maye is able to create behind them crumbling, it’s still resulted in the rookie taking a sack on nine of his 106 dropbacks, the 10th-highest rate (8.5%) in the league. Brissett is one of the quarterbacks ahead of him, holding the fifth-highest rate (9.7%).

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Bills vs. Dolphins

The Bills' offensive line continues to throw their weight around in all aspects of the game, including their sixth-best RB yards before contact (2.02) and fifth-highest adjusted line yards (4.85). While Ray Davis looks like he’s carved out a nice role for himself after that fantastic Week 6 Thursday Night Football performance (23 opportunities, 152 total yards), this is still James Cook’s backfield when he’s on the field.

Cook’s two touchdowns from inside the 10-yard line last week were his eighth and ninth carry from that area of the field, resulting in five touchdowns. Through his first two years in the NFL, he had 22 such carries, for only one score. It’s possible that he regresses as the season goes on, but we should take solace in the fact that he’s not being pulled around the goal line as he was in years past. Davis could get some more work as the season goes along, but in an important divisional game with the Dolphins, who are looking to salvage their season, we should continue to fire up Cook as a fringe RB1/2.

Panthers vs. Saints

Targeting the Panthers in any sense seems a little ridiculous right now, but things are lining up well for Chuba Hubbard against an equally struggling New Orleans Saints. Sure, the team just shipped off their best skill position player, and Bryce Young seems like he’s got a pretty good shot to start again in Week 9, but the Saints' run defense has been brutal as of late.

Over the last four games, New Orleans has allowed 190.8 yards on the ground while allowing the third-highest yards per attempt (5.5) and suffering a 13.6% broken-plus-missed tackle rate, the sixth-highest. If there’s been one bright spot on this Panthers campaign (other than Andy Dalton), it’s been their run blocking, particularly in the center of the formation, where the addition of guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis has been fruitful.

Not only is rookie Jonathon Brooks not slated to return this week, but it’s also possible that we won’t see him in 2024 altogether. Fire up Hubbard as an RB2 once again.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad matchup through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing:

• Alexander Mattison, Raiders
• Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots
• Travis Etienne/Tank Bigsby, Jaguars