What Sam Darnold to Seattle Means for Fantasy Football
On Monday, March 10th, it was reported that the Seattle Seahawks would sign Sam Darnold to a three-year, $110.5 million contract, with $55 million guaranteed. This continues a whirlwind of changes for the Seahawks’ passing attack this offseason, including the hiring of OC Klint Kubiak, the release of Tyler Lockett, and trades of Geno Smith and DK Metcalf (read more about that here).
The Seahawks basically saved around $8 million/year (per reported negotiations) and accrued a third-round pick by moving from Smith to Darnold. Let’s look at what this may mean to their new quarterback and the offense as a whole.
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Sam Darnold’s Recent Profile
In what amounted to a one-year “prove it” deal with the Minnesota Vikings last season, Darnold parlayed a one-year, $10 million contract into the aforementioned blockbuster deal in free agency. While he certainly had some help, the veteran showcased what he can do when the stars align. With rookie J.J. McCarthy missing the entire 2024 campaign, Darnold demolished previous career highs in yardage (4,319), touchdowns (35), and QB Rating (100.8) with the help of a fantastic 1-2 punch of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.
| Year | Team | Game Starts | Dropbacks | Yards | YPA | TD% | INT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Vikings | 17 | 672 | 4,319 | 7.9 | 6.4% | 2.2% |
| 2023 | 49ers | 1 | 55 | 297 | 6.5 | 4.3% | 2.2% |
| 2022 | Panthers | 6 | 162 | 1,143 | 8.2 | 5.0% | 2.1% |
| 2021 | Panthers | 11 | 463 | 2,527 | 6.2 | 2.2% | 3.2% |
| 2020 | Jets | 12 | 425 | 2,208 | 6.1 | 2.5% | 3.0% |
Maybe even more importantly than the raw counting stats, Darnold seemed to find new life in terms of pocket presence, finishing 2024 with a pretty decent 22.2% pressure-to-sack rate, while maintaining a -1.7% completion rate over expected (16th/43 qualifiers), 209 scramble yards (12th), 6.43 yards per attempt (11th), and 67.0% adjusted completion rate (15th) while facing pressure.
Where Darnold truly flourished in the Kevin O’Connell offense was the under-center play-action game, where he trailed only Jared Goff (188) in dropbacks (139), connecting on deep balls at an absurd rate. He completed a league-leading 12 passes with 20+ air yards in those situations, accruing 458 yards, four touchdowns, and 23.95 EPA, each of which lapped the rest of the NFL. It certainly helps to have Jordan Addison and a top-three NFL wide receiver to come down with the ball on the other end, but his 89.6% catchable ball rate from under-center play-action attempts was the seventh-highest rate.
If 2024 was a fluke for the seventh-year QB, the numbers definitely don’t show it.
The Seahawks’ 2025 Passing Game Outlook
From a macro view, it seems as if the Seahawks have thrown away most of the passing attack that led to the team finishing 14th in the league in scoring offense.
Tyler Lockett was the first domino to fall back on March 5th, with the team releasing the 10-year vet after a ho-hum season. It was his seventh-straight season with 600+ yards, but it came with a stark lack of versatility in his usage, seeing his slot rate drop below 30% for the first time in his career. His yards-per-route run would also plummet to 1.10 (88th), while his yards after catch mark fell to 2.7 (95th), each number finding him near the bottom of 110 qualifying receivers.
Lockett hasn’t had a replacement-level career by any means, but he is now a replacement-level player in the year 2025, so his loss shouldn’t hinder the team, regardless of the coaching staff.
What new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak will need to find is a big-bodied X receiver who can come down with deep shots. But it’s hard to say if DK Metcalf would have perfectly fit that mold. Over the last three seasons, Metcalf has a 38.5% contested catch rate, a mark that would have ranked just above Jerry Jeudy in 88th place among 110 NFL receivers in 2024. Of course, no one is arguing that Metcalf’s size-speed combination is awe-inspiring (and you don’t need to make contested catches if you’re already behind the defense), but there are more holes in his game than simply not winning in contested-catch situations.
Per Matt Harmon via Reception Perception,
“Metcalf has really developed some bad habits that have rotted in his game the last two seasons that I didn’t find to be such a constant issue in his first three seasons. He drifts on routes to bring defenders back in between himself and the quarterback in zone coverage, he doesn’t work with ferocity back to the ball on stop routes, and his breaks are too rounded. These all contributed to what’s not really a tenable zone success rate for a consistent high-volume wide receiver.”
It’s likely that Kubiak (and head coach Mike Macdonald) saw some of these negatives in the veteran’s profile and had a hand in the team shipping him off to Pittsburgh for a second-round pick to try to find a more versatile replacement. Metcalf spent 86.4% of his time out wide last season and has never been below 80% in a given year, while Kubiak’s last two leading “out-wide” marks were 70.8% (Chris Olave, ‘24) and 75.9% (Brandon Aiyuk, ‘23).
Long story long, Kubiak should be implementing more “multiple” looks throughout the 2025 season, focusing on Sam Darnold’s efficiency out of the under-center play-action game. It may have actually been more difficult to execute a non-static offense if Metcalf and Lockett were still in town.
With that said, we’re going to need some help behind Smith-Njigba and some interior offensive line fortification to make that dream a reality.
The Seahawks’ 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook
The most glaringly obvious winner from the initial cycle of free agency is Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Smith-Njigba converted his 133 targets into a 100-1,130-6 stat line while only accounting for 25.4% of the team’s first-read targets last season. That mark ranked 40th among the league’s pass catchers, and with the likes of Jake Bobo, Dareke Young, Noah Fant, AJ Barner, and a presumptive rookie (or two) vying for targets behind him, we could easily see that first-read rate jump to 30%+.
Outside of JSN, there is only one fantasy option in Seattle that we should still be overtly excited about rostering: Kenneth Walker. With Macdonald and Kubiak at the helm, we could see a much more run-friendly scheme, harkening back to the Chris Carson-led bully-ball years a half-decade prior. Over the last two seasons, the Seahawks trail only the Cincinnati Bengals in neutral-game pass rate (61.2%), while Kubiak’s last two stops finished at 55.1% (Saints’ OC) and 55.4% (49ers’ passing game coordinator).
The Seahawks now own five top-100 picks in the upcoming NFL Draft, and for our purposes, it would be a win if three of those picks went to the wide receiver position and the interior of the offensive line. It’s a big ask, but not out of the question. This would go a long way toward boosting Walker’s bottom line and, to a lesser extent, those of Smith-Njigba and Darnold, as well.
Darnold may have just been a flash in the pan last season, but even if it’s a sign of things to come, he’s not someone we should be targeting in typical redraft leagues. Leave him in question as a low-end QB2 in Superflex leagues and a stackable option in best ball.
Update 3/15/25: With the signing of Cooper Kupp, Darnold's floor looks a bit better, but he should still be considered in the same low-end QB2 range. Kupp himself becomes intriguing as a WR3/4-type, but for a deep dive into his fantasy aspirations, check out Matt Okada's look into his signing.
The Bottom Line
- Sam Darnold parlayed an out-of-nowhere 2024 season into a big payday as the unquestioned starter for the Seattle Seahawks.
- With both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett out of the picture, Darnold’s supporting cast leaves a lot to be desired, though it does push Jaxon Smith-Njigba into the WR1 conversation.
- In order for Darnold to reach his full fantasy potential, the Seahawks will have to make it a massive point to fill the interior of their offensive line with more talent. This is crucial to running the heavy play-action style that Darnold thrived in and new OC Klint Kubiak has shined with.
- Darnold will take off with the ball, but not enough to give us the kind of floor-ceiling combination we need for consistent fantasy success. His current Underdog ADP of 168.9 (QB28) is more than palpable, but we should expect that to jump into the QB24 range before long. Keep clicking until he inches closer to the QB20 in anticipation of some new pieces through the NFL Draft.
