Southern vs. Alcorn State Betting Preview & Best Bet

The cream of the Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC), Southern, will head to Mississippi Saturday to improve upon their 5-1 league mark versus a tough Alcorn State squad. Southern’s only blemish in January is a road loss to Grambling State. They should be the favorites to grab the auto-bid when March rolls around. That said, a clear second tier of contenders has emerged and Alcorn State is firmly within that group. Grabbing an upset as a short home underdog would go a long way towards seeding come conference tournament time. Despite both teams being also-rans who flamed out in the first round of the SWAC tournament last year, Southern dominated Alcorn State in 2021, winning both tilts by double digits. The 2022 iteration is improved on both sides of the ball and looking for more of the same.

Alcorn State has gone from one of the best in the league last year at avoiding turnovers to a squad with a 20%+ turnover rate. Despite a much-improved offense, in the close losses to Prairie View A&M and Florida A&M, the turnover numbers jumped out—14 and 12, respectively. Their slow tempo has stymied opposing offenses numerous times this year, holding Milwaukee, Jackson State and Alabama State to 60 points or fewer in three road wins.

Southern has been a nicely-balanced team so far this year, ranking first overall in the SWAC in both offense and defense. Shooting better than 40% as a team from deep in league play, leading the way in free throw percentage and managing to take care of the ball has been a recipe for success so far. Their only loss came when an opponent was able to put together an equally lethal offensive outpouring; Grambling State got to the line a whopping 38 times while also shooting extremely well from the field. I’m not sure Alcorn State has this type of game in them.

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Southern vs. Alcorn State Betting Odds

Southern vs. Alcorn State Best Bet

Southern -1.5 (-110, FanDuel)

The combination of Alcorn State’s tendency to turn the ball over and lack of offensive rebounding has me giving the road favorite the edge in this one. If they are going to give a good Southern offense extra possessions to take advantage of their league-leading three-point shooting rate, it’ll be tough to sneak out a win at home here. I have the Jaguars celebrating a win on the ride back to Baton Rouge.