Nicholls State vs. Houston Baptist Odds & Picks: We Have a Problem
The two biggest sporting events in the betting world are the Super Bowl and March Madness. With a 17-game schedule and one week between contests, the casual fan has more than enough time to make an informed betting decision for every game. The same cannot be said for college basketball, where lines are usually posted just 24 hours in advance during the regular season.
Six sportsbooks in Louisiana launched on Friday morning, taking online wagers all across the Bayou State. After covering the Pelicans game to kick off sports betting in Louisiana, let's turn our attention to the college basketball hardwood.
Nicholls State is the defending champion in the Southland Conference, but they have struggled to start the season. The Colonels are just 2-2 in conference play. Tonight, they travel to Texas to battle a Houston Baptist team that was predicted to finish last in the preseaon poll.
Can Nicholls State start to gain some momentum towards another run at the Southland title, or will Houston Baptist play spoiler against the preseason favorite?
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Nicholls State vs. Houston Baptist Betting Odds
| Nicholls State | Houston Baptist | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -8.5 | +8.5 |
| Moneyline | -450 | +350 |
| Over/Under | 145.5 (-108) |
*Lines accurate at time of publication.
Nicholls State vs. Houston Baptist Best Bets
Nicholls State -8.5 vs. Houston Baptist (-115, FanDuel)
It's time for head coach Austin Claunch's team to make a run.
Nicholls State is always one of the top defensive teams in the Southland Conference. The Colonels currently rank first in defensive turnover efficiency in conference play and are top 50 in the country with 15.5 turnovers forced per game (KenPom). This will be a huge advantage against a Houston Baptist team ranked last in the Southland in offensive turnover efficiency. The Huskies are a brutal 344th in the nation with 16.4 turnovers per game. Nicholls State wants to push the pace, which will but pressure on Houston Baptist to limit the turnovers in order to keep this game close.
The Colonels have a big-time scorer in junior guard Ty Gordon, who is averaging 20 points per game while shooting a blistering 40% (64-of-160) from beyond the arc. Gordon already has a streak of seven games with 22 points or more this season. He is paired in the backcourt with lightning-quick guard Devante Carter, who averages 2.2 steals per game. Carter (12.4 PPG), is coming off a brilliant game at McNeese State where he posted 19 points, six assists and five steals in an 81-71 win.
Houston Baptist's metrics are concerning across the board. The Huskies allow opponents to shoot 41% from three-point range, 355th in the country. That is particularly concerning against a Nicholls State team that generates the fourth-most points from deep in the Soutland Conference. In their recent home loss to New Orleans, the Huskies allowed the Privateers to shoot 50% from deep while gifting New Orleans 18 turnovers. I project a similar outcome tonight against Nicholls State.
Houston Baptist is just 4-9 against the spread, including 0-3 at home, while Nicholls State is a respectable 5-4 ATS in true road games. The Colonels have some impressive road covers on their resume: at Wisconsin, at Purdue and a true road win to open the season at Northern Iowa.
This line opened at Nicholls State -9 and has actually dropped slightly to 8.5. We are taking the Colonels to cover as road favorites against a Houston Baptist team that will succumb to their defensive pressure.
Risk: 1.15 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit. (Bet up to -120)
Nicholls State vs. Houston Baptist Game Total Under 145.5 Points (-108, FD)
The concerns for the Huskies' offensive attack have caused them to play eight of their 13 games to the under. This includes four of their last six contests, and their only Southland home game against New Orleans. The exciting and fast-paced nature of the conference tempts the public to wager on the over. However, I expect Nicholls State's defense to limit Houston Baptist's offense, keeping the Huskies below the 70-point plateau.
Both teams have really struggled from the free throw line, with Nicholls State an abysmal 60% on the season. Houston Baptist isn't much better, hovering around 67% on the season.
Houston Baptist and Nicholls State are both 4-3 to the under against Southland competition. Given the Huskies' limitations on offense, we will bet that trend continues.
Risk: 1.08 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit. (Bet up to -110)
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