Super Bowl 56: MVP Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions

One of the more popular bets every year for the Super Bowl is for the game’s MVP. Books will hang odds for upwards of 50 players or more and it’s fun to think about all the possible scenarios that could lead to a longshot taking home the MVP trophy, and you taking home a good amount of money as a result. Sorry to burst your bubble, but the winning quarterback is likely going to win the Super Bowl 56 MVP award. It's a trend—31 of the past 55 Super Bowl MVPs have been quarterbacks. In the last 20 Super Bowls, a quarterback has been named MVP 13 times.

Past Super Bowl MVPs (By Position)

• Quarterback: 31
• Running Back: 7
• Wide Receiver: 7
• Linebacker: 4
• Defensive End: 2
• Safety: 2
• Cornerback: 1
• Defensive Tackle: 1
• Returner: 1

Current Super Bowl 56 MVP Odds

Make Sure to Price Shop

Given the history of the award and how much more important the quarterback position has become as the league has become more pass-heavy, Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow are the favorites. Stafford’s odds are between +100 and +130, depending on the sportsbook. Burrow’s odds are between +210 and +230. The only other player whose odds are below +1000 is Cooper Kupp, whose odds hover around +600.

This brings up an important point: If you want to bet this prop, or any prop really, you need to do price shop. The spread and total for the game are going to end up about the same almost everywhere, but you’re going to get more variation with the prop market, leading to value. Take Joe Burrow, for example. If you really think the Bengals are going to win the game, the best Moneyline price is +175. You can get Burrow at +230 to win Super Bowl MVP right now and there aren’t a lot of scenarios where someone other than Burrow wins MVP if the Bengals win. With all that said, here’s a rundown of picks I like, picks I don’t like and my prediction for the MVP award.

Super Bowl MVP Picks to Avoid

Running Backs and Bengals Skill Position Players

Running backs are tied with wide receivers as the second-most frequent position group to win MVP, but that’s misleading. The last running back to win Super Bowl MVP was Terrell Davis in 1998 when the Broncos upset the Packers. Furthermore, it’s hard to imagine a running back on either team in this game having a starring role. Cam Akers is an amazing story, but he’s averaging just 2.8 yards per carry in the playoffs. Sony Michel hasn’t been much better, averaging 3.3 yards per carry. Joe Mixon is outpacing both—3.7 yards per carry in the postseason—but the Rams' run defense has been spectacular so far in the playoffs, allowing 2.9 yards per carry to opposing backs.

I love the Bengals receivers, but the narrative surrounding Joe Burrow has reached almost epic proportions. Burrow is given almost exclusive credit for the Bengals' turnaround and getting Cincinnati to this point. Even if Ja'Marr Chase replicates the kind of game he had against Kansas City in the regular season (266 yards and three touchdowns), if Burrow throws for over 400 yards, as he did in that game and the Bengals win, Burrow is going to win the MVP. The only scenario in which I can envision a Bengals player other than Burrow winning MVP is if it’s a really ugly game where Burrow struggles and a defensive player has multiple interceptions like Larry Brown in Super Bowl XXX or Dexter Jackson in Super Bowl XXXVII. Linebacker Logan Wilson led Cincinnati with four interceptions in the regular season and six different Bengals have an interception in the playoffs, so trying to pick a Bengals defender as Super Bowl MVP feels a bit futile.

Super Bowl MVP Value Picks & Longshots

Aaron Donald

+1800 at Caesars

As an admitted longshot lover, this is my favorite look on the board, even if it goes against the history of the award. Randy White is the only defensive tackle to win Super Bowl MVP. White shared the award with teammate Harvey Martin in Super Bowl XII. Defensive players don’t win the award very often (10 in total). Coincidentally, the last defensive player to win it was Aaron Donald’s teammate, Von Miller, then with the Broncos, in an ugly, defensive game. Donald would need a similar game here to have a shot, but it’s not entirely out of the question. The Bengals' offensive line was overwhelmed and struggled to finish drives against Tennessee. It’s easy to imagine a scenario where they struggle here. Conversely, the Bengals' defense has had some real bright spots, particularly the second half against Kansas City, and it’s not like Matthew Stafford is immune to struggling. Donald would likely need to record multiple sacks, but given how much of a mess the interior of the Bengals' offensive line is, that feels achievable. If Donald is a menace and the Rams win ugly, it’s easy to see voters giving the award to a player viewed as the best defensive player in the league.

Odell Beckham Jr.

+2800 at DraftKings Sportsbook

I think Cooper Kupp is more likely to win this award than Odell Beckham Jr. If you want to play Kupp, though, you can get him at +600 at DraftKings and at BetMGM. I love longshots and I do see a path for Beckham Jr. to win it. Again, with awards like this, narrative matters and Beckham is going to be one of the most talked-about players in the run-up to the big game. He’s found a connection with Stafford in short order. Beckham has hauled in 82% of the passes Stafford has thrown to him in the playoffs. He’s a very clear No. 2 WR in Los Angeles and if he makes some big catches and gets into the end zone and Stafford doesn’t have a huge game, he’ll have a shot to win it. I like this number because of the price, not because I think Beckham has a great shot to win the award, but at +2500 or higher, I like a small stake.

Super Bowl MVP Prediction

Matthew Stafford

+130 at PointsBet

I hate to go chalk here, but Matthew Stafford is chalk for a reason:

• The Rams are decent favorites.
• Quarterbacks win this award way more than any other position group.
• The media loves the narrative of a seasoned veteran who couldn’t win big games for one of the worst franchises in the league getting his chance to win a Super Bowl in his 13th season.

I think the Rams have more options to win this award than the Bengals do should they win the game, but Stafford is the favorite here for a reason.

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