DFS Strategy for UFC Noche

Sep 15, 2023

Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Editors note:

The UFC continues to expand its South American market as it attempts to feature a number of fighters from the region on its “Noche” card this week. Alexa Grasso takes on Valentina Shevchenko in a rematch for the women’s flyweight championship. With a number of fights on this card projected for big finishes, this could be an interesting week for DFS. Let's take a look at the fighters to target this week.

Premium Plays ($9000 and Above)

Raul Rosas Jr. $9600

Rosas Jr. Is the most expensive fighter on the slate this week and it’s with good reason. It is questionable whether Terrance Mitchell has the skill level needed to be a UFC fighter. Mitchell is 0-2 in both of his shots at fighting UFC-level opponents. He has largely built a record against low-level regional opponents on the Alaskan circuit. Where Mitchell struggles is exactly where Rosas Jr. excels. Mitchell proved in his most recent bout against Cameron Saaiman that his wrestling defense is not up to par. Look for Rosas Jr. to immediately take this fight to the ground where he will get the finish. While $9600 is a high price tag, the likelihood of Rosas Jr. getting the finish makes him worth paying up for. Paying up for Rosas Jr. in this spot will likely require you to scrape the bottom of the barrel for a punt play.

[subscibe_dfs]

Lupita Godinez $9400

“Loopy” is a middling WMMA fighter largely due to her inconsistency fight to fight. Godinez is priced highly here but she should have the advantage nearly everywhere this fight takes place. Elise Reed particularly struggles off her back and Godinez should have little trouble getting the fight there. Godinez is coming in on short notice but is a step up in competition for Reed compared to her most recent win against Jinh Yu Frey. Godinez should score well with her grappling and control and figures to be a safe play to get the win as my model gives her the third-highest projected win rate at 68.68%.

Roman Kopylov $9100

After losing his first two fights in the UFC, Kopylov has been on a tear with three straight finishes. His striking is the key to his success and he should be multiple levels ahead of his opponent Josh Fremd. Fremd is 2-2 in the UFC with his wins coming against two low-level fighters. Fremd is big for the division but has still yet to prove himself with a win against a respectable opponent. Expect Fremd to install a wrestling-heavy game plan against Kopylov. Fremd will however need to put himself in harm’s way to be successful and I expect Kopylov to catch him at some point during these exchanges.

Midrange Plays ($8100 - $8900)

Valentina Shevchenko $8500

Shevchenko has been the class of the women’s flyweight division for some time. Her loss to Grasso was a bit of an upset but I would not call it a fluke by any means. Grasso was surprisingly able to get ahead in the striking exchanges as shepressured with a boxing-heavy game plan. Shevchenko during that fight was looking to counter and was just flat. While the striking was close it was a rear naked choke that finished things for Grasso to become the champ. That submission does not tell the story of the fight, however. Shevchenko has struggled over her last few fights giving up her back multiple times, but she was largely dominating the wrestling exchanges in the fight with Grasso. Grasso struggled to get up off the bottom and Shevchenko scored 80.4 points in the loss. Shevchenko’s clearest path to victory would seem to be by controlling the wrestling and that should score well with this being a five-round fight.

Tracy Cortez $8200

Cortez is another fighter that should benefit from the scoring rules. She is 4-0 in the UFC and will look to implement a grappling-heavy strategy against an improving Jasmine Jasudavicius. Cortez doesn’t have much finishing prowess but is a consistent scorer in DFS, averaging 87.4 points over her four UFC fights. There is some danger that Jasudavicius could show even more improvement and surprise some people. Still, I expect Cortez to get the better of the grappling and rack up control points over the course of three rounds as this fight goes to the judges.

Value Plays ($7900 and Below)

Alexa Grasso $7700

If you read the breakdown for Shevchenko above you might be surprised to see Grasso here as well. Many analysts, however, are split on the outcome of this fight. With cash game lineups, we are targeting four wins with some upside in our punt plays. There is a world where it’s simply Grasso’s time at the top of the division and she is the younger and maybe better fighter at this stage of her career against Valentina. Shevchenko simply looked flat in her striking against Grasso the last time out. I’m not sure much changes in the striking department. At this price tag in a five-round scheduled fight, Grasso should return value on her price tag and should be considered in tandem with Shevchenko for cash game plays.

Daniel Lacerda $7500

Daniel Lacerda is a boom-or-bust fighter. Thus far he is 0-4 in the UFC so he has largely been a bust. Lacerda has never scored more than 46 points in a DFS contest which makes him a tough play for anyone. The UFC rarely ever gives an 0-4 fighter another shot and that is the angle to look at in this fight. The way Lacerda fights, he is always dangerous and live to get a finish. While this may be his last chance to do so, at some point Lacerda will get a finish. Among the fighters under $8000, Lacerda has the highest ceiling and thus the most variance in his possible outcomes.

Swing Fight

Jack Della Maddalena $8200 vs Kevin Holland $8000

The Co-main event is the pivot fight of the event. Both of these guys are threats to finish and are cheap enough to swing a slate in your direction, provided you have the winner on your roster. Della Maddalena showed some holes in his grappling the last time out versus a short-notice debutant in Basil Hafez. With that being said, Holland will not possess the grappling power or takedown prowess of Hafez. What Holland will possess is a significant 8-inch reach advantage. The trend line for fighters with such a pronounced reach is a win rate of around 70%. My model has this fight as pick ‘em with that reach trend line pushing Holland slightly ahead with a 50.35% chance of winning. With the margin so close and the finishing upside in Della Maddalena’s favor, I would lean in his direction in a fight that I expect to be contested on the feet.