Marshawn Lynch, Mike Gillislee & 12 Other Dynasty Risers & Fallers
The NFL Draft and the transactions surrounding it offers dynasty league players a wealth of information, but the influx of new players and player movement can be overwhelming in terms of its effect on the fantasy value of NFL veterans. Using the dynasty ADP data from Dynasty League Football, let’s look at some veterans who saw their fantasy value fluctuate after the NFL Draft by comparing post-draft May ADP to pre-draft April ADP.
Editor's Note: Looking for how the NFL Draft affected the 2017 fantasy value of players on all 32 teams? Read Chris Raybon's full breakdown here. Looking for how the draft affected MFL10 values? Read TJ Hernandez's breakdown here.
Risers
Mike Gillislee, RB NE
April ADP: 200.7
May ADP: 135.7
Change: +65
Gillislee, the top riser, was not specifically impacted by the NFL Draft, but more so by moving from the Bills to the Patriots. Gillislee was stuck behind LeSean McCoy in 2016, but still led the league with 5.7 yards per carry (minimum 100 attempts) and offers huge upside in the typically productive Patriots backfield. With the recent departure of LeGarrette Blount, we can expect Gillislee’s value to continue to climb despite a crowded backfield that also includes Rex Burkhead, James White and Dion Lewis.
Marshawn Lynch, RB OAK
April ADP: 181.8
May ADP: 131.3
Change: +50.5
For the majority of the offseason, the Raiders were among the teams routinely projected to select a rookie running back early in the NFL Draft. That changed when the team added the veteran Lynch to its backfield. Lynch has not played in over a year, of course, after retiring following the 2015 season, but he is already being penciled in as the starter after Latavius Murray bolted to the Vikings. While Lynch returning home to Oakland to finish out his career makes for a Hallmark story, I am a bit skeptical of his value. We have no idea what type of shape Lynch is in after a year away from the game -- not to mention his final season with the Seahawks was filled with injuries and disappointing production. Nonetheless, Lynch’s dynasty value is up over four rounds from the previous month.
Jonathan Williams, RB BUF
April ADP: 220
May ADP: 177.5
Change: +42.5
Williams is an interesting case since he’s really done nothing to earn a bump in value of nearly four rounds worth in one month. The jump is related to the departure of Gillislee and the perceived increase in opportunity for the second-year back Williams. As a rookie, Williams handled just 27 carries for 94 yards in eleven games and never really challenged for the primary backup role behind McCoy. Now there is little in Williams' way of claiming the second RB spot, especially since the Bills surprisingly did not add a rookie back in the draft.
Eli Manning, QB NYG
April ADP: 191.8
May ADP: 156.8
Change: +35
This one is a bit surprising, but the Giants did sign Brandon Marshall through free agency and then added tight end Evan Engram and running back Wayne Gallman in the NFL Draft. This offense should be much improved and more consistent than it was a year ago, when Odell Beckham was the only reliable threat for Manning. After being undervalued earlier in the offseason, the aforementioned offensive additions are starting to make his ADP rise.
Fallers
Jerick McKinnon, RB MIN
April ADP: 132.2
May ADP: 202
Change: -69.8
McKinnon's long-term vale was already in flux after he failed to produce when given starter’s snaps in 2016. Then the Vikings then brought in Latavius Murray via free agency. Now, things have gotten even worse -- Minnesota traded up for talented rookie Dalvin Cook on day two of the draft. Not only did McKinnon’s ADP plummet, but the draft selection also hurt Murray, who himself fell 24 picks from April to May. With the Vikings' poor offensive line, there is some doubt about how well the team can support even one fantasy-relevant back, so the idea of three maintaining any level of long-term value is outrageous.
Devontae Booker, RB DEN
April ADP: 144.3
May ADP: 195.5
Change: -51.2
The Broncos did not select a running back early in the draft, instead adding DeAngelo Henderson on the final day. This may have seemed like a vote of confidence for the duo of C.J. Anderson and Booker, but the team wasted no time in signing veteran Jamaal Charles following the draft. While Charles is not even assured of making the final roster, his signing is still a bad sign for Booker. During his rookie year, Booker failed to impress when given the starting job following an injury to Anderson and the team is showing no allegiance. Booker’s role in Denver may simply fade away -- that’s what's already happening with his dynasty value.
T.J. Yeldon, RB JAX
April ADP: 135.5
May ADP: 175.2
Change: -39.7
The addition of first-round running back Leonard Fournette obviously has a huge impact on the current depth chart, hurting Yeldon and Chris Ivory. Yeldon has been a player who has failed to live up to expectations, but could actually excel in a passing-down role, which most presume he will hold with Fournette getting the early-down touches. Falling nearly 40 spots in dynasty ADP in one month is not what you'd like to see, but Yeldon could be a player to buy low on in hopes that he carves out a passing-dowin role in the offense.
Tajae Sharpe, WR TEN
April ADP: 167.5
May ADP: 204.5
Change: -37
The Titans added not just one, but a pair of rookie wideouts in the recent draft, along with a tight end. Not only did the team add these weapons, but they spent a lot of draft capital to acquire them, including a top-five pick for wideout Corey Davis. Adding Davis, along with fellow wideout Taywan Taylor and tight end Jonnu Smith is excellent news for quarterback Marcus Mariota, but could be the final straw for the dynasty value of second-year receiver Sharpe. Sharpe quickly climbed the depth chart a year ago, but failed to produce when the season began, yet somehow those few weeks of positive news lent him dynasty value that has somehow remained. In short, his fall of over three rounds was long overdue.
Tyler Higbee, TE LAR
April ADP: 172.8
May ADP: 207.3
Change: -34.5
The Rams spent a mid-round draft pick on Higbee just a year ago and he enjoyed a promising rookie season under the previous regime, but with new head coach Sean McVay, things will clearly change. The Rams added rookie Gerald Everett in the second round and McVay wasted no time in comparing him to Jordan Reed, whom he coached with the Redskins. None of this is good news for Higbee, who as a result saw his ADP tumble nearly three full rounds. However, I am still buying Higbee, with the expectation that the Rams will run a lot of two-TE sets that will enable both players to put up reliable numbers in the coming seasons.
Cameron Brate, TE TB
April ADP: 140
May ADP: 170.2
Change: -30.2
Brate enjoyed a breakout season in 2016, finishing as the TE7, but that didn’t stop the Buccaneers from using their first round selection on former Alabama tight end O.J. Howard. No one really expects Brate to just go away, but the pick was enough to drop his ADP by over thirty spots, all but wiping out his trade value. Like the situation with the Rams, I still value Brate and expect him to produce, but there is a good chance his performance a year ago is the best we ever see from him.
Jeremy Hill, RB CIN
April ADP: 132.8
May ADP: 159.2
Change: -26.4
The Bengals were clearly not satisfied with their backfield duo of Hill and Giovani Bernard, so they used their second-round pick to add Mixon. There has been some speculation that Hill will not even make the final roster. If not for his work in the red zone, he’d likely be even further down the ADP ranks. For now, he remains a Bengal, although he is already being listed third on the depth chart.
Rex Burkhead, RB NE
April ADP: 135.2
May ADP: 161.5
Change: -26.3
For a brief couple of weeks, Burkhead was the new darling of fantasy footballers after being signed away from the Bengals and landing with the Patriots. Unfortunately for him and the dynasty owners who overspent to acquire him, the Pats weren’t done shopping. They team went on to eventually add the aforementioned Gillislee. This is one crowded backfield. While it is unclear who will emerge, Burkhead’s time in the sun didn’t last long.
Devin Funchess, WR CAR
April ADP: 153.7
May ADP: 179.8
Change: -26.1
The Panthers had one of the most surprising draft hauls, adding running back Christian McCaffrey and wide receiver Curtis Samuel with their first two picks. These two speedy, versatile players are quite different than recent key players in the Carolina offense, including the disappointing, big-bodied Funchess. It is clear that the Panthers have plans to make major changes in their offense and Funchess might be out of chances, sending his dynasty value plummeting to an all-time low.
Mark Ingram, RB NO
April ADP: 51.7
May ADP: 77.8
Change: -26.1
After the Saints added Adrian Peterson last month, Ingram's dynasty value took a slight hit, but his fans and dynasty owners felt safe with the fact that his role in the receiving game should increase. The Saints' pick of pass catching specialist Alvin Kamara now creates a threat to that role, and as a result, Ingram’s value is in question as has fallen over two rounds in the past month.
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