Stacking the Deck: FanDuel & DraftKings Stacks for Week 13
Welcome back to Stacking the Deck. This season at 4for4 we will be providing subscribers with Value Reports and Stack Value Reports that value every stack in terms of projected points/$. We also use our Adjusted Fantasy Points Against (aFPA) metric heavily in the column. What’s new this year is we know have the have the advantage of putting into practice two great offseason studies from my colleague, Senior DFS Editor, Chris Raybon: The Definitive Guide to Stacking on FanDuel and The Definitive Guide to Stacking on DraftKings.
When I'm not doing research or writing about DFS, typically I do a lot of reading...about DFS. I know, it's kind of messed up.
Anyways, if have gathered one thing as of late it is that being aggressive in tournaments with players overlooked due to recency bias is crucial. Avoid that middle tier of lineups with mid-ranged players in regards to ownership. Don't be afraid to mix in high owned plays and a couple sub two-percent guys for differentiation. That doesn't mean rostering that wide receiver that is seeing two targets a game, it just means finding value in the less than optimal situations where a player will still see volume. Maybe the matchup is worse on paper or maybe they have just performed poorly and are due for positive regression. Those are situations to take very seriously and staying out of this in-between area of mid-ranged ownership is something I really want to work on.
We will continue to focus on positive correlations in this column, but also put a higher emphasis on leverage plays in GPPs this season. The following are my top stacks for Week 13 on both FanDuel and DraftKings:
FanDuel Stacks
Russell Wilson ($7,700) & Doug Baldwin ($6,900) vs. CAR
Quarterback and WR1 have a .45 correlation on FanDuel, the strongest of all positions. The Seahawks are a heavy home favorite (-7) with the seventh-highest team total of the week (25.75). If you were burned by this combo last week, the good news is the ownership will be lower than it should. At just $6,900, Baldwin has a ceiling of 22.5 in our projections, top-10 at the position. He is also expected to avoid James Bradberry, the Panthers' only competent corner. Carolina ranks 21th and 23rd against quarterbacks and wide receivers, respectively, in our signature metric, Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA). The Wilson-Baldwin stack is our #5 rated QB/WR stack in our FanDuel Stack Value Reports.
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