Raybon's Review: DFS Lessons Learned in Week 4

Oct 04, 2017

Analyzing last week's results is one of the best investments of time you can make as a DFS player. Here I analyze winning lineups, low-owned players, and other notable Week 4 takeaways that can be used to gain an edge going forward.

DraftKings Millionaire Maker Week 4 Winning Lineup Review

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RKennedy23 employed a few different stacking and player selection methods that frequent readers will be highly familiar with. For one, he used multiple players from two teams that greatly exceed their implied team totals: the Bengals (22.5) and Panthers (19.25). Implied team totals (and over/unders) are essentially a 50/50 proposition; on average, a team that exceeds its implied total will do so by 7 points and vice-versa. Also note that the Bengals stack of A.J. Green and Tyler Kroft was used without Andy Dalton, who ended up scoring 7.7 points less than Cam Newton. Not limiting yourself to only QB-WR stacks is generally a strategy that pays off. Another type of stack employed in this lineup was a game stack of Leonard Fournette and Bilal Powell. Overall, opposing running backs are negatively correlated because one will be in negative game script more often than not, but in a close game where both running backs are main cogs in their offense, it becomes viable. Albeit more expensive, Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliott was another opposing RB stack that would have paid off last week.

If you were one of the 97.3% who didn’t own QB Cam Newton, how could you have landed on him?