DraftKings Thanksgiving Slate Breakdown

Nov 22, 2017

We'll do a bonus article for the Thanksgiving slate this week, with the main slate breakdown to be released at its normal time. The key with three-game slates like these is to pick a couple of core plays you want to go overweight on, and also a couple of low-owned plays that will help differentiate your lineup amidst the highly concentrated ownership that goes hand in hand with a limited amount of games on the slate. Being aware of correlations is important if you're building a portfolio of multiple lineups, but due to the limited amount of options, don't be afraid to consider unorthodox stacks, such as stacking two RBs on the same team, for example.

Quarterbacks

Because he’s the slate’s second-cheapest QB, despite laying claim to its top receiving group, Case Keenum ($5,300) is my favorite play at the position. With no must-play at QB, rostering Keenum gives you access to the upside of Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs while mitigating some of the risk that comes with paying up at the position. Enhancing Keenum's floor is the likelihood he's able to get the ball in the hands of his playmakers—Keenum has taken only 5 sacks and thrown just 5 picks across 314 dropbacks this season.
As a home favorite with the slate's highest implied team total, Kirk Cousins ($7,100) is Thursday's raw-points play against a Giants defense ranked 27th in QB aFPA. Getting up to him in cash and pairing him with the other core plays on the slate (Gordon, Thielen, Engram, Davis, Crowder) comes down to how willing you are to punt the RB2 and WR3 slots. I like the way lineups look with Keenum a bit more, but I also have no issue with the way they look with Cousins.
Matthew Stafford is always liable for a big game, but may struggle against a Vikings defense ranked 11th in QB aFPA. In seven career meetings with Zimmer's Vikings defense, Stafford averages 216.6 yards and 1.3 TDs passing, with no 300-yard or 3-TD outings.
Dak Prescott ($6,700) and Philip Rivers ($6,100) are better GPP options than Stafford; theoretically, a pick'em and the slate's highest over/under (48) suggests Cowboys-Chargers has the most shootout potential. Rivers has the better matchup, but Dak's mobility and the return of left tackle Tyron Smith make Dak the better play for me.
Eli Manning ($5,100) has a tempting salary, but especially with Sterling Shepard (migraines) looking iffy, Manning just doesn't have the same firepower Keenum has for only $200 more. The best case that can be made for Manning is opposing passing game correlation if Cousins goes off and the Giants are forced to pass for long stretches against a prevent defense (as the Saints can attest to, Washington's prevent defense is not good).