DFS Tight End Analysis: Wild Card Edition

Jan 03, 2018

DFS is a game of exploiting a lot of small edges, therefore all options at each position should be explored every week. Below is an analysis of this week’s tight ends, including the upside and downside of the most viable players on the slate with explanations for how you might adjust your approach to the position depending on the game type.

Throughout the season, I’ve offered a brief analysis of the tiers in the introduction of each section but on such a short slate with so few viable options, it makes more sense to discuss what stands out at the position and how to leverage public opinion. Last week, we saw Rob Gronkowski go catch-less in a spot where he was among the highest-owned players of the week in one of the best matchups available. Travis Kelce is in a similar situation this week, but it’s often valuable to embrace the volatility of tight ends and opt for another player at the position with decent odds of performing well. Owners who play high-volume, multi-entry contests can be underweight on a play like Kelce but still have enough exposure to him to not be drawing dead on the week. Anyone playing a single entry contest should strongly consider going against the grain in a spot like this—with a single bullet, other owners will have a hard time overcoming the psychological hurdle of fading a player in what looks like the best spot of the week, which should theoretically drive up ownership compared to multi-entry games.

Chalk

Travis Kelce ($7,700 FD/$7,100 DK) is projected to command an ownership nearly twice as high as any player at his position. Kansas City is at home, favored by 9 points with a projected point total over 26. The Titans defense ranks 28th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to tight ends, the only position where Tennessee ranks outside the top 20 in aFPA. Teams have thrown against the Titans in the red zone at one of the highest rates in the league but since Matt Nagy took over play-calling duties for the Chiefs, Kansas City has slanted much more towards the run near the goal line. Kelce is priced $2,100 more than the TE2 on DraftKings and is $1,200 more on FanDuel but still projects as the top value at his position on FD. A look at the value reports across all positions suggests a handful of options that are a better value than paying up at tight end.