Brian Schottenheimer's Impact on the Seahawks' 2018 Fantasy Outlook

Jul 05, 2018

Since 2011, Pete Carroll and Darrell Bevell worked hand-in-hand to orchestrate the Seahawks' offensive scheme. They hit their apex from 2014–2015, finishing in the top 10 in both total yards and points scored in each of those seasons. Over the past two years, though, their offensive numbers have waned and the 2018 offseason saw Brian Schottenheimer replace Bevell as Seattle's offensive coordinator. After ranking in the top 10 in rushing rate from 2011–2015, the Seahawks ranked outside the top half of the league in rush rate in each of the last two seasons. Their hope is that the addition of Schottenheimer will help the offense re-focus on the run game. The following will examine how Schottenheimer’s history as a playcaller fits Seattle’s goals.

More in the OC impact series: Norv Turner | Mike McCoy | Pat Shurmur | Todd Haley

A Snapshot of Brian Schottenheimer’s History

Dating back to 2006, Schottenheimer has been an offensive coordinator and primary playcaller for nine seasons in the NFL, serving under a head coach with a defensive background in each of those seasons. His teams have ranked in the top 10 in scoring just once and he’s never led an offense that ranked in the top 10 in total yards.

First and foremost, it’s important to examine how a playcaller manages their offense in specific game scripts since player talent usually dictates who touches the ball the most.

Brian Schottenheimer Pass Rates in Wins vs. Losses
Year	Team	Overall	Rank	Wins	Rank	Losses	Rank
2014	Rams	56.9%	20	47.9%	26	64.4%	19
2013	Rams	54.3%	23	43.6%	30	64.6%	16
2012	Rams	57.6%	14	52.3%	16	65.7%	13
2011	Jets	55.7%	17	51.3%	16	62.3%	16
2010	Jets	50.0%	29	48.4%	20	56.6%	32
2009	Jets	39.5%	32	35.5%	31	48.6%	32
2008	Jets	55.9%	11	50.6%	13	65.6%	7
2007	Jets	53.7%	22	42.5%	30	60.8%	22
2006	Jets	49.8%	25	51.3%	7	52.0%	32

Brian Schottenheimer Situational Pass Rates
Year	Team	Neutral*	Rank	Negative*	Rank	Positive*	Rank
2014	Rams	52.9%	23	73.6%	10	39.7%	22
2013	Rams	49.6%	28	70.5%	14	35.1%	27
2012	Rams	55.9%	18	72.3%	11	23.7%	30
2011	Jets	56.3%	10	65.6%	24	33.8%	23
2010	Jets	53.3%	23	54.7%	31	25.6%	31
2009	Jets	42.2%	32	49.6%	32	27.5%	28
2008	Jets	55.7%	13	81.2%	2	41.0%	15
2007	Jets	51.1%	24	68.0%	22	31.0%	27
2006	Jets	52.9%	14	51.0%	32	40.5%	13

^{*Neutral game script is when the score is within seven points. Negative game script is down by eight or more points. Positive game script is up by eight or more points.}

The most obvious trend in Schottenheimer's history is his affinity for the run. His offenses have never ranked in the top 10 in passing rate and have finished in the top half of the league just twice. This trend toward the run has almost nothing to do with game script—Schottenheimer has coached just two teams that reached double-digit wins and his offenses have consistently ranked outside the top 20 in passing rate in every game script situation.

Schottenheimer’s Quarterbacks

Brian Schottenheimer QB Per-Game Averages
YEAR	PLAYER	GS	CMP	ATT	PYD	PTD	INT
2014	Austin Davis	8	22.6	35.6	249.8	1.5	1.1
	Shaun Hill	8	18.0	28.5	207.1	1.0	0.9
2013	Sam Bradford	7	22.7	37.3	241.0	2.0	0.6
	Kellen Clemens	9	15.8	26.9	185.9	0.9	0.8
2012	Sam Bradford	16	20.5	34.4	231.1	1.3	0.8
2011	Mark Sanchez	16	19.2	33.8	217.1	1.6	1.1
2010	Mark Sanchez	16	17.4	31.7	205.7	1.1	0.8
2009	Mark Sanchez	15	13.1	24.2	162.9	0.8	1.3
2008	Brett Favre	16	21.4	32.6	216.3	1.4	1.4
2007	Chad Pennington	8	22.4	32.4	220.8	1.3	1.1
	Kellen Clemens	8	16.3	31.3	191.1	0.6	1.3
2006	Chad Pennington	16	19.6	30.3	209.9	1.1	1.0

An audit of Schottenheimer’s quarterback history lends some insight into his playcalling habits. He’s had a quarterback finish the season ranked in the top 15 in adjusted yards per attempt just—Chad Pennington ranked 14th in 2006. Inefficient quarterback play combined with ultra-conservative head coaches such as Rex Ryan and Jeff Fisher may have nudged Schottenheimer towards the run even more than he would have preferred himself.

Schottenheimer’s Running Backs

Brian Schottenheimer Primary RB Per-Game Averages
YEAR	PLAYER	G	RSH	RSHYD	RSHTD	TARG	REC	RECYD	RECTD	PPR	Backfield Touch %
2014	Tre Mason	12	14.9	63.8	0.3	2.2	1.3	12.3	0.1	11.4	47.6%
2013	Zac Stacy	14	17.9	69.5	0.5	2.5	1.9	10.1	0.1	13.2	64.2%
2012	Steven Jackson	16	16.1	65.1	0.3	3.3	2.4	20.1	0.0	12.4	68.6%
2011	Shonn Greene	16	15.6	65.6	0.4	2.6	1.9	13.2	0.0	12.0	58.2%
2010	LaDainian Tomlinson	15	14.5	60.8	0.4	5.3	3.5	24.5	0.0	14.4	50.9%
2009	Thomas Jones	16	20.7	87.4	0.8	1.1	0.6	3.6	0.0	14.6	59.9%
2008	Thomas Jones	16	18.1	82.0	0.8	2.6	2.3	12.9	0.1	17.4	70.1%
2007	Thomas Jones	16	19.4	69.9	0.1	2.1	1.8	13.6	0.1	10.9	76.0%
2006	Leon Washington	16	9.4	40.6	0.3	1.9	1.6	16.9	0.0	8.8	36.5%

Brian Schottenheimer Primary RB Per-Game Averages (Team)
YEAR	TEAM	RSH	RSHYD	RSHTD	TARG	REC	RECYD	RECTD	PPR	% Team Touches
2014	Rams	20.5	83.4	0.5	6.7	5.1	41.9	0.1	21.4	64.9%
2013	Rams	23.3	91.9	0.5	4.9	3.6	24.9	0.1	18.6	65.3%
2012	Rams	22.8	98.2	0.3	6.0	4.1	31.3	0.0	18.5	70.4%
2011	Jets	24.6	95.5	0.5	7.8	5.5	50.9	0.1	23.9	61.0%
2010	Jets	28.3	118.6	0.5	7.3	4.9	34.3	0.0	23.2	59.3%
2009	Jets	33.3	148.9	0.9	4.2	2.3	17.9	0.0	24.6	60.0%
2008	Jets	23.8	114.6	1.2	6.9	5.3	35.2	0.3	28.9	57.2%
2007	Jets	23.8	92.0	0.3	5.4	4.0	26.9	0.1	17.9	59.3%
2006	Jets	26.7	90.6	0.9	4.8	3.4	26.4	0.0	20.8	58.3%

With so much emphasis on the run, it would be a fair assumption that Schottenheimer has coached some great fantasy backs, but he’s had a running back finish in the top 12 in PPR scoring just twice and his backfields as a whole have finished in the top 12 only three times. A big contributing factor to this is the lack of scoring from teams he has coached, as mentioned in his coaching history, but he’s also run some of the slowest-paced offenses in the league.

Brian Schottenheimer Pace Stats
Year	Team	Seconds Per Play - Overall	Rank	Seconds Per Play - Situation Neutral	Rank
2014	Rams	28.48	26	33.13	32
2013	Rams	28.09	21	32.31	31
2012	Rams	27.64	17	31.79	26
2011	Jets	28.10	20	31.57	26
2010	Jets	27.78	13	30.09	10
2009	Jets	28.87	25	30.23	10
2008	Jets	29.61	30	31.30	20
2007	Jets	26.66	4	31.89	26
2006	Jets	28.62	21	30.90	19

Pace stats courtesy of FootballOutsiders.com.

Schottenheimer’s run-heavy tendencies combined with a slow pace of play has only added to the limited upside his running backs have had in low-scoring offenses.

Schottenheimer’s Pass-Catchers

Brian Schottenheimer Primary Receiver Per-Game Averages
YEAR	PLAYER	G	TARG	REC	RECYD	RECTD	PPR	TGT %
2014	Jared Cook	16	6.1	3.3	39.6	0.2	8.3	19.2%
2013	Jared Cook	16	5.3	3.2	41.9	0.3	9.3	17.0%
2012	Danny Amendola	11	9.1	5.6	60.4	0.2	12.8	18.5%
2011	Dustin Keller	16	7.2	4.1	50.9	0.3	11.0	21.4%
2010	Braylon Edwards	16	6.4	3.3	56.5	0.4	11.6	19.7%
2009	Jerricho Cotchery	14	6.9	4.1	58.6	0.2	11.7	24.9%
2008	Laveranues Coles	16	7.3	4.4	52.4	0.4	12.3	22.1%
2007	Jerricho Cotchery	15	8.5	5.5	75.3	0.1	14.0	25.2%
2006	Laveranues Coles	16	9.4	5.7	68.7	0.4	14.9	31.5%

Brian Schottenheimer Secondary Receiver Per-Game Averages
YEAR	PLAYER	G	TARG	REC	RECYD	RECTD	PPR	Tgt %
2014	Kenny Britt	16	5.2	3.0	46.8	0.2	8.9	16.4%
2013	Chris Givens	16	5.1	2.1	35.6	0.0	5.7	16.4%
2012	Brandon Gibson	16	5.1	3.2	43.2	0.3	9.4	15.1%
2011	Santonio Holmes	16	6.3	3.1	40.9	0.5	10.4	18.6%
2010	Dustin Keller	16	6.3	3.4	42.9	0.3	9.6	19.5%
2009	Dustin Keller	16	5.1	2.8	32.6	0.1	6.9	21.3%
2008	Jerricho Cotchery	16	6.9	4.4	53.3	0.3	11.7	21.2%
2007	Laveranues Coles	12	7.4	4.6	53.8	0.5	13.0	17.7%
2006	Jerricho Cotchery	16	7.8	5.1	60.1	0.4	13.5	26.0%

While Schottenheimer has had a pass catcher exceed 200 PPR points (approximate WR24 numbers) just three times, he has shown some discernible patterns in target share. His passing games have been fairly concentrated, giving two players roughly 18 percent of team targets six times—just 10 teams saw two players exceed an 18-percent target share in 2017.

Schottenheimer also hasn’t shied away from using his tight ends—a tight end has led a Schottenheimer offense in target share three times and finished as a top-two target in two other seasons. Last year, only three tight ends led their teams in target share.

What it All Means for the Seahawks in 2018

There are few coaches in the league who have been as committed to the run as Schottenheimer, but Carroll insists that the change at OC was with an eye on challenging Russell Wilson. How that will manifest on the field is yet to be determined, but Schottenheimer’s presence—at least as a primary playcaller—hasn’t resulted in efficient quarterback play. What we do know is that Seattle spent first-round capital on Rashaad Penny and let their No. 2 and No. 3 pass-catchers from 2017 walk without adding any formidable replacements.

Quarterback

Russell Wilson is by far the best quarterback Schottenheimer will have had the chance to call plays for (in 2008, Brett Favre was using New York as a pit stop to Minnesota), but also the most unique. While Wilson has averaged 96 runs per season over the course of his career, Schottenheimer has never had a quarterback rush more than 38 times. Combine Schottenheimer’s run-heavy past with a lack of reliable targets and an unimproved offensive line, and Wilson could conceivably throw fewer than 500 times for the first time since 2015. His efficiency and scrambling ability still keep Wilson in the top tier of fantasy quarterbacks but he’s a player I’m waiting to fall before I draft rather than one I’m aggressively targeting.

Running Backs

Immediately after the NFL Draft, Carroll hinted at his intentions for Penny, saying he “will be a nice fit and he’s really excited about being a three-down guy.” This lines up with Schottenheimer’s past, as he’s coached five running backs to a backfield touch share of 60 percent or more and seven backs with at least 270 touches.

Receivers

As noted earlier, Schottenheimer has generally run a concentrated passing attack and targets should be filtered toward Doug Baldwin this season. No other player on the roster saw more than 13 percent of Seattle’s targets last season, so it’s a near certainty Baldwin will set a career-high in target share—with Schottenheimer’s scheme that target share may not necessarily equate to a career-high in targets, though.

With Brandon Marshall already being discussed as a cut candidate, Tyler Lockett is the favorite to be the second target in Seattle. If he can approach the 18 percent target share that many of Schottenheimer’s No. 2 receivers have seen in the past, Lockett could approach top-35 wide receiver target numbers at a price outside the top 50 at his position.

Photo by Jeff Zelevanksy/Getty Images.

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