4for4 PPR Rankings vs. FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings

Aug 05, 2018

4for4’s Director of Forecasting John Paulsen has twice been named FantasyPros' Most Accurate Expert and has finished in the top six in the nation in rankings accuracy seven of the past eight years.

That’s the kind of track record that breeds fantasy championships and profitable seasons.

Site-Specific Sleepers: Yahoo | ESPN | CBS | NFL.com

Since Paulsen’s competition each year is made up of the rest of the fantasy football prognosticators around the country, we thought we’d compare his PPR rankings to the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) at FantasyPros.

We will look at the most undervalued and overvalued players when compared to the consensus rankings of those other 94 analysts who have posted overall rankings on FantasyPros.

At the end of the article, you will find a table that cross-references 4for4’s top-200 ranking for each player with his FantasyPros consensus ranking. Each player’s Bargain Score is the difference between Paulsen’s ranking and the FantasyPros ranking. The higher the Bargain Score, the better the value; the lower the Bargain Score, the lower the value.

Undervalued Players

QB Matthew Stafford, Lions

Among Paulsen’s top-12 QBs, Stafford has the largest bargain score when compared to FantasyPros' ECR. Stafford checks in with a sixth-round value in 12-team leagues, but the ECR only has him with an eighth-round ranking. Stafford, Drew Brees, and Kirk Cousins are the only quarterbacks with three consecutive top-10 fantasy QB finishes.

RB Rex Burkhead, Patriots

Rookie Sony Michel reportedly had a bone-to-bone situation in his knee and now is having a procedure on his knee that will cause him to miss the preseason. That’s plenty of time for Burkhead to solidify his role in the Patriots' offense. Paulsen already loved Burkhead before the latest Michel news. We have him with a fourth-round grade. His ECR shows the industry is still apprehensive of Belitricks and have him outside their top 75 players. Burkhead has the biggest Bargain Score among Paulsen’s top-20 RBs.

RB Nyheim Hines, Colts

The speedy, pass-catching rookie out of NC State has had a lot of buzz since OTAs. It appears he’ll be in the Darren Sproles role in Frank Reich’s offense. He’s also a plus pass protector, critical to the Colts, given Andrew Luck’s injury history. In PPR leagues, he has the highest Bargain Score among Paulsen’s top-40 RBs. He’s assigned an eighth-round grade on him with his projection, compared to a 12th-round grade in the ECR.

RB Marlon Mack, Colts

It appears the industry is down on the Colts backfield as a whole, but that ignores how much the Colts have upgraded their interior run blocking with rookie first-round pick Quentin Nelson. The Colts' offensive line now has three first-round picks across it. Uncertainty in backfields can breed fantasy value for those who can diagnose it properly. Mack is the clear early-down starter on the Colts' first depth chart. He has the third-highest Bargain Score among our top-40 RBs. We do have him ranked higher than Hines in PPR. Paulsen has assigned a fifth-round grade to Mack, but his ECR has him near the round 8-9 turn.

WR Cameron Meredith, Saints

Continue reading to see why Cameron Meredith is undervalued when referring to FantasyPros' Expert Consensus Rankings, as well as which players are overvalued, and a table that highlights the top 200 undervalued and overvalued players...