Waiver Wire Watch: Week 13 Targets

Nov 26, 2018

I hope this week’s Waiver Wire Watch finds you comfortably in the playoffs. Even if that isn’t the case and you need to win to get in, it’s time to continue to build on what we talked about last week: loading up for Weeks 14-16. Don’t be shortsighted, worrying only about getting into the dance. Because while making it to the post-season is always great, winning should be your ultimate goal regardless of how long the odds.

Before we get to the meat and potatoes, I have one more tidbit of advice: don’t be afraid to drop a couple guys at the end of your bench to grab some defenses to play matchups. Low-owned defenses to target include the Titans, Redskins and Broncos. A little proactiveness could easily end up the difference between first and fourth place.

Throughout this series, we will be using PPR scoring, a $100 FAAB budget and a 50% threshold for player ownership. The intro to Week 1’s edition of WWW goes into far more detail about that. Please also use the linked sources to take a moment to familiarize yourself with Josh Hermsmeyer’s air yards and our own Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) metrics. As always, John Paulsen will edit this piece and reorder/adjust the prices as necessary.

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott, 47% owned ($7)
Jameis Winston, 47% owned ($5)
Lamar Jackson, 42% owned ($3)
Joe Flacco, 14% owned ($1)
Case Keenum, 16% owned ($1)

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Prescott stayed hot on Thanksgiving, posting his fourth 20+ point effort in six weeks. After a slow start to the season that saw him fail to top 170 yards or throw for two scores in the first three weeks, Prescott is averaging 241 yards passing, 1.4 touchdowns, 0.36 interceptions, 24.3 rushing yards, 0.63 rushing touchdowns and 19.8 fantasy points. Those are top-10 fantasy numbers, all despite having one of the worst supporting casts in the league pre-Amari Cooper and playing in a hyper-conservative offense. It gets better: Dallas faces the Eagles, Colts and Buccaneers from Weeks 14-16. Those are three bottom-third defenses in aFPA to quarterbacks.

Jameis Winson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Adding another 22.9 fantasy points to his season total, Winston is up to an average of 26.6 PPG in games he starts and finishes. With a matchup against a Panthers defense ranked in the bottom-10 of aFPA to quarterbacks this week, there is little reason to expect any sort of major falloff, making Winston a locked-in QB1. Just keep in mind Weeks 15 and 16 feature games against Baltimore and Dallas.

Lamar Jackson and Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens

Reports surfaced on Sunday saying Flacco will be ready to practice this week. I am going to be in the minority here, but I think the Ravens are going to go back to the veteran. In his two games as a starter, Jackson has thrown three interceptions against one touchdown. John Harbaugh is the sort of guy who prioritizes taking care of the ball and having a quarterback who will not lose games. That is Flacco, not Jackson.

Assuming we don’t have any info from Baltimore by the time waivers run, Jackson is the guy to target. Flacco isn’t going to get a FAAB bid in most leagues, so you can always add him later. Regardless of who is starting, you are going to want a piece of the Ravens as they have an idyllic schedule the rest of the season: Falcons, Chiefs, Buccaneers, Chargers. Whoever is under center has a legit shot at QB1 numbers the rest of the way.

Case Keenum, Denver Broncos

Keenum has eclipsed the 20-point mark only once all season and hasn’t managed 17 points since Week 6. I’m not sure that matters much considering his schedule. Week 13 brings the scuffling Bengals who have given up 28.9 or more points four times this season and just allowed Baker Mayfield to throw for four scores in the first 32:04 of Sunday’s game. After that the Broncos face the 49ers, Browns and Raiders to finish things out.