DFS Air Yards Buy-Low Model: Week 13
Week 13 of the Air Yards Buy-Low Model is here. Last week the model identified not one but two receivers (Emmanuel Sanders and David Moore) who ended up in the Millionaire winning lineup on DraftKings.
For new readers, the Buy-Low Model looks at players who have received opportunity in the form of targets and air yards in the previous three weeks and offers an expected fantasy points value based on those inputs. It then highlights which players underperformed relative to that expectation. The key insight behind the model is that opportunity is sticky and production in the form of catches, touchdowns and shot plays are not. You want to buy the signal and fade the noise. The list highlights players who are strong candidates to have a performance spike in the near future.
This week the model sports an out-of-sample r-squared of 0.56. The predictive power of the model is on the wane as the season comes to an end.
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In GPPs you need to look beyond the median projections and identify value plays that are low-owned that can set your team apart and put up crooked numbers. Here is a list of receivers and tight ends who have underperformed their volume for the past three weeks that the model thinks could be in store for a bounce-back week in the near future. Maybe even this week.
| Name | Predicted FP | Actual FP | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 15.8 | 15.6 | -0.2 |
| George Kittle | 14.4 | 14.1 | -0.4 |
| Josh Gordon | 12.5 | 12.1 | -0.5 |
| Willie Snead | 12.2 | 10.1 | -2.1 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 11.2 | 11.1 | -0.1 |
| DeSean Jackson | 10.0 | 8.1 | -1.9 |
| Keke Coutee | 8.8 | 8.1 | -0.8 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 8.6 | 7.5 | -1.1 |
| Golden Tate | 8.1 | 6.9 | -1.2 |
| Marcell Ateman | 8.0 | 6.8 | -1.2 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 8.0 | 7.4 | -0.6 |
| DeVante Parker | 7.9 | 6.7 | -1.2 |
| Seth Roberts | 7.5 | 7.4 | -0.1 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 7.4 | 6.0 | -1.4 |
| Devin Funchess | 7.4 | 6.1 | -1.3 |
| Tyrell Williams | 7.2 | 6.4 | -0.8 |
| Courtland Sutton | 7.0 | 6.6 | -0.4 |
Key Takeaways
- I do not have a ton to say about this week's model. There are a lot of returning faces, and since I strongly do not believe that matchups have any discernible effect on fantasy success, the analysis of each of these players is always the same: they are seeing opportunity and are under-performing it.
- George Kittle ($5,900 DK/$6,800 FD) appears to be the focal point of the new 49ers passing attack, such as it is. I'd avoid guys like Dante Pettis and focus on Kittle in your lineups if you want a piece of this otherwise depressing offense.
- DeVante Parker ($3,800 DK/$5,400 FD) didn't practice Wednesday but my goodness he's cheap. With Danny Amendola also nursing a knee injury, Parker could be the recipient of even more volume than usual. He's probably worth throwing in a couple tournament lineups.
- The regular season ends this week for most season long folks. Use the names on this list as solid additions for your playoff run if you need help at WR, specifically those at the top. Good luck in the playoffs! DFS players, have no fear, this column will continue through week 17.
Photo by Michael Zagaris/Getty Images.
