Streaming Defenses: Week 2 Targets

Sep 10, 2019

As we discussed last week, we are rolling out a new-and-improved model this season for projecting fantasy defenses. This model focuses on the most predictable elements of defense scoring: points allowed, sacks, and interceptions. To project points in each of those areas, we rely on the Vegas lines, quarterback history of interceptions, and the offensive and defenses history of producing sacks. Below, we will look at what those elements say for Week 2.

Other Week 2 Streaming Articles: QB | TE | K

Looking Backward

Those who played the Jets last week should be very happy with the results. While I won't give myself any credit for the defensive touchdown or fumble recoveries (as those are not elements we are trying to predict), the Jets had a sack, two interceptions, and held Bills to 17 points, which was in line with Vegas expectations. Overall, that puts them in the top-10 amongst defenses for points from predictable elements.

The Cowboys, our second suggestion, held the Giants below Vegas expectations but, with only one sack and no interceptions, fell below our projection. That, of course, is going to happen half the time even if our models are perfectly calibrated.

Our final streaming option, the Raiders, held the Broncos to 16 points and had three sacks. However, without any interceptions, they ended up with an average score on the predictable elements. Still, that is not bad from a defense that was available on just about every waiver wire.

Other takeaways from Week 2: The Redskins offense, which we expected to be quite poor, played well against the Eagles. The Browns defense was worse than expected, allowing the Titans to score an incredible 43 points. We will have to wait a few more weeks to know whether those are just blips on the radar or real changes. However, it is already safe to say that the Dolphins are terrible.