Streaming Quarterbacks: Week 4 Targets

Sep 24, 2019

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We’re through the first quarter of the fantasy season and we’re still learning about each offense. The good and bad aspects of each play-caller and player are starting to take shape. Keenan Allen is on pace for 2,155 receiving yards. Ezekiel Elliot has only six targets through three weeks after finishing 2018 with nearly 100. Freddie Kitchens may be in over his head. Despite some of the confusing trends, Week 3 gave the fantasy community a few reasons to maintain a positive outlook on their teams after injuries appeared to have ruined their season.

Other Week 4 Streaming Articles: TE | K | D/ST

Six backup quarterbacks made their 2019 debut in Week 3. From Daniel Jones to Luke Falk, the ‘youth movement’ showed the league what ‘range of outcomes’ really means through their on-field performances. Their low ownership puts them on our radar for streaming candidacy so let’s dive in and see who we can use in Week 4. Bye weeks add a new wrinkle to the process. But with only Luke Falk and Jimmy Garappolo out this week, we can essentially proceed as before with a closer eye on future weeks than before.

Week 3 Review

Last week’s top streaming recommendations likely kept you alive if you were in a pinch after Week 3’s quarter injuries.

Jacoby Brissett – 20.8 points (QB11)

Josh Allen – 18.3 points (QB15)

Week 1’s streamers averaged 21.8 points. We got to 19.3 in Week 2. With a 19.6 average in Week 3, we’ve been able to identify two QB1 performances and a QB2 finish. All off the waiver wire. Let’s keep it rolling into Week 4. Injuries, matchups, and recommendations are on deck.

Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed

Next, let’s visit 4for4’s Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed ranks fresh out for the 2019 season. We’ll reference them for now with the understanding that the 2019 outlook is likely different than how 2018 ended for most squads. We now have a few weeks of data, but it’s difficult to establish a trend without more input. Notable rankings for quarterbacks include:

(#32) Saints – 30.7 aFPA
(#31) Cardinals – 27.4 aFPA
(#30) Giants – 27.4 aFPA
(#3) Jaguars – 10.4 aFPA
(#2) Patriots – 10.3 aFPA
(#1) Rams – 7.6 aFPA

Key Defensive Injuries

Finally, we’ll review injuries along with the guidelines that will be used each week to find viable options on the waiver wire:

Only quarterbacks with no more than a 40% ownership in Yahoo leagues considered.
Ancillary metrics and game conditions (e.g. defensive ranking, weather) will be factored into the analysis.
Positive matchups for all pass catchers to be considered.
4for4 rankings should always be consulted for league-specific decisions.

Alec Ogletree (Giants, Hamstring) – The 7-year vet left Week 3’s contest with a limp during the second quarter. Ogletree has accounted for eight solo tackles over the first two games of the season despite the Giants (27.4 aFPA) giving up over 300 passing yards per game. The offense has new life with Daniel Jones at the helm, but host Washington in Week 4.

Keanu Neal (Falcons, Achilles) – It’s always difficult seeing a player get emotional on the field after an injury. The Falcons’ safety finds himself possibly starting the rehabilitation process all over again with an Achilles injury sustained in Week 3. Neal spent most of the 2018 season recovering from a torn ACL and further depletes Atlanta’s secondary (17.9 aFPA). Atlanta faces the Titans in Week 4.

Derek Wolfe (Broncos, Ankle) – Denver’s defense (15.2 aFPA) hasn’t been the same as in year’s past. Losing their starting defensive end certainly won’t help. Wolfe went down in the second quarter in Denver’s loss to Green Bay. Dre’Mont Jones (rookie) is expected to replace the veteran who’s expected to miss at least one game.

Other Notable Injuries: Tyquan Lewis (Colts, Ankle), Denico Autry (Colts, Eye), Al-Quadin Muhammad (Colts, Stinger), Mike Daniels (Lions, Foot), Darius Slay (Lions, Hamstring), Marquel Lee (Raiders, Ankle), Ahkello Witherspoon (49ers, Foot), Christian Covington (Cowboys, Calf)