Streaming Defenses: Week 11 Targets

Nov 12, 2019

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As discussed p reviously, we are rolling out a new-and-improved model this season for projecting fantasy defenses. This model focuses on the most predictable elements of defense scoring: points allowed, sacks and interceptions. To project points in each of those areas, we rely on the Vegas lines, quarterback history of interceptions and the offensive and defense history of producing sacks. Below, we will look at what those elements say for Week 11.

Other Week 11 Streaming Articles: QB | TE | K

Looking Backward

Our top pick, the Colts, slightly underperformed, but nonetheless gave solid results with six points from the predictable elements. They were slightly under predictions for sack and interception points but slightly over on score points. Since we made this projection early in the week, with Brissett expected to play, the projection might have been more accurate when updated for his absence. Still, this was a pretty good prediction.

The Ravens outperformed our projection. They also slightly underperformed in sacks and interceptions but significantly overperformed in score points, holding the Bengals to just 13 points. They came in with eight points from the predictable elements, which is a high score. Those who played them also saw the benefit of two defensive touchdowns. While we don't try to predict those, they are a huge bonus when they come. Those who played the Ravens should be very pleased.

Our final pick, the Giants, was our first real whiff of the season. The Giants had no sacks, no interceptions, and allowed the lowly Jets offense to put up 34 points. This gave them a score of -1 points from the predictable elements, which is abysmal. The only consolation here is that the Giants were our lowest projected of the three picks (which is normally where we see underperformance), and they were below the 6.5 projected points line, which tends to separate the more reliable options from the less reliable ones. While I do expect big misses now and then, this miss actually continues to add evidence in favor of the model's strengths being in its very top projections.