8 Wide Receiver Studs & Duds for 2020
In this first two parts of this series, I uncovered potential studs and duds at the quarterback and running back positions based on how players performed against scoring expectation in 2019. The full methodology can be found in the introduction to the quarterback article. The premise is straight forward—players who over-performed in the touchdown column could disappoint against inflated price tags and those that under-performed could have surprisingly big seasons if they realize their scoring equity.
More Studs & Duds: QB | RB | TE
Each position carries a different scoring expectation for every play type. The following table outlines scoring rates for wide receiver targets from various starting points on the field:
| Line of Scrimmage | TD Rate |
|---|---|
| 1–49 | 1.0% |
| 50–41 | 2.3% |
| 40–31 | 4.3% |
| 30–21 | 7.2% |
| 20–16 | 14.1% |
| 15–11 | 17.6% |
| 10–6 | 29.8% |
| 5–1 | 44.3% |
After compiling every target for all wide receivers from last season (minimum 40 targets), I calculated each receiver’s touchdown expectation and compared that number to the actual touchdowns that they generated. The differential in those numbers will serve as an indicator for wide receivers who scored more often or less often than they should have and, in turn, potential studs or duds in 2020.
Find out which 2019 studs might be duds in 2020! Includes table with the full values of 100+ WR's.
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