Marquise Brown Is A Risky Bet in 2020

You knew what you were getting with Marquise Brown in 2019: a No. 2 receiving option on an incredibly run-heavy offense that rarely had reason to throw the ball with any volume. You got boom or you got bust: Brown had three games of more than 16 fantasy points and eight games of less than seven.

The hope for 2020 is that Brown’s fantasy production can be smoothed out—with occasional spike weeks, of course—with some regression for the dominant Baltimore offense. Maybe we can assume some second-year growth too. Maybe.

Brown is being drafted as the 33rd wideout off the draft board this summer, a year after finishing as the WR46. Danny Amendola nearly matched Brown’s 2019 output. The ghost of Larry Fitzgerald, an afterthought being drafted as the WR62, outscored Brown last season. Yeah, I like Brown to go over his prop of 800.5 receiving yards this season, though that's hardly a tall task. Forty-two receivers went for more than 800 yards last year.

So why are fantasy players (relatively) bullish on the Baltimore receiver in 2020?

Recapping Marquise Brown's 2019

For one, Brown was slowed by injuries in 2019, missing two games and parts of other contests with lingering issues. Brown left the team’s Week 5 game against Pittsburgh with an ankle injury after seeing five targets. We shouldn't forget that Brown played his entire rookie season with a screw in his foot after having surgery for a Lisfranc fracture, struggling through the aforementioned ankle injury and a hamstring tweak in Week 10.

He still managed a respectable 16.7% target share, though a target share of under 20% on a run-first offense isn’t the most thrilling thing for fantasy purposes. Brown’s 5.1 targets per game would have given him 82 targets over 16 games, for the extrapolation truthers out there.

The Ravens’ 2019 formula was simple: secure a lead and bludgeon the opponent via the run, led by a terrifying rushing threat in Lamar Jackson. Baltimore ran the ball on 54% of their offensive snaps last season, by far the highest rate in the NFL. And why not? The Ravens cracked the 200-yard mark on the ground nine times in 2019. Just to repeat: nine times. There was rarely a reason to sling the ball, leaving Brown with low snap counts, target totals, and fantasy points in most Baltimore wins.

Examining win-loss splits for Brown isn’t instructive since the Ravens won 12 games and lost just two games with Brown in the lineup. Looking at his usage and potential opportunity in games where the Ravens chased points is worth a look though. Below are Brown’s target totals from games that saw Baltimore go back and forth with their opponent (whether they narrowly won or lost) and the rare game in which Jackson the the Ravens played from behind.

Brown’s opportunity wasn’t terrible in weeks that saw Baltimore abandon their vicious running attack for the pass. Jackson notched an average of 40.2 pass attempts in those contests—surely a waking nightmare for John Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman, but not bad for a primary pass-catcher like Brown.

Marquise Brown's 2020 Fantasy Outlook

It doesn’t matter that Brown didn’t exactly blow the roof off in the above contests. We’re interested in how Brown might find a path to volume in an offensive scheme that certainly did not provide it in 2019. Just a little regression for the Ravens offense (and the team in general) would mean a substantial opportunity uptick for Brown in 2020 if he maintains a market share of 16-17%. And if he challenges Mark Andrews for target share supremacy—which would require something around 20% of Jackson’s throws—he could easily prove a value for those who take him in the sixth or seventh round of 12-team drafts.

Now for some structural talk: how should Brown fit into your 2020 fantasy draft plans? Unless you project Baltimore to fall off the proverbial cliff and see their rush rate drop by 6-8%, Brown certainly doesn’t profile as a reliable WR2. He might not even be a trustworthy WR3, though he’ll likely provide some blowup games along with his clunkers.

For those going Zero RB—or something in the Zero RB family—Brown could prove a massive luxury as a guy who could be drafted as your WR4-5. If his best-case scenario unfolds, you could have a potent WR3 or flex in leagues that allow for up to four starting wideouts. For more balanced drafters or fantasy managers who go all-in on running back and the elite tight ends early in drafts, Brown is a somewhat risky proposition who could once again fall victim to a lack of usage and opportunity as the Ravens decimate the competition.