8 Overvalued Running Backs (Busts)

Aug 03, 2020

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Not every selection you make in a fantasy football draft is going to be a league winner and not every player you reach for while ignoring value is going to sink your season, either. With that said, you don’t want to leave too much value on the table as you head through your draft, and I’ve picked out some names whose average draft positions do not align with how our rankings reflect the players’ most probable outcomes.

More Overvalued Players: QB | WR | TE

Maybe the player is set to regress closer to the mean, maybe they don’t have a firm enough grasp on the touch-pie of their team, or, maybe I just don’t believe they’re very good at football. These are 2020’s most overvalued running backs.

Aaron Jones, Packers (ADP: 2.05, RB9) (4for4 Half-PPR Ranking: RB14)

Through three seasons in the NFL, Aaron Jones has touchdown totals of four, nine, and 19. One of those numbers is not like the others, and it would behoove us to expect some touchdown regression heading into the 2020 season. Much to the chagrin of fantasy players through these first three seasons of Jones’ career, the Packers have been adamant in having him split time with somebody —namely, Jamaal Williams who had a 32% running back touch rate last year. If we were certain Jones was going to have a 60% touch rate again, I would be more bullish on him but the bad news there is the addition of A.J. Dillon in the second round of the draft.

Now the backfield is beginning to get a little crowded, and head coach Matt LaFleur has come out in support of using a three-headed backfield. There is nothing wrong with betting on talent, but with Williams/Dillon absorbing some of those 19 touchdowns this season, I don’t like taking Jones in the late first-round or early second round, which typically means I’m not able to acquire him.