Is Aaron Rodgers a Bargain at His ADP?
It's tough to find a compelling reason to draft Aaron Rodgers in the eighth round of a one-quarterback league, just as it's difficult to come up with a compelling reason to draft any mid-round quarterback in traditional formats.
Sometimes this idiom is proven untrue, as it was in 2019 when Lamar Jackson was drafted in the 10th round before bludgeoning opponents on his way to a 421-point fantasy campaign. Jackson’s rushing prowess made him the exception to the rule. And in 2020, Rodgers certainly is not an exception.
Is the formerly great Rodgers worth targeting in deeper leagues (14 and 16 teams) or Superflex formats? That’s a different question altogether. To answer it, we have to decide if there’s a chance Rodgers can return to his former glory, or at least something resembling his astounding 2008-2016 run.
Aaron Rodgers's Recent History
Beyond the cringeworthy friction between Rodgers and his wunderkind head coach Matt LaFleur, there’s reason to be skeptical about whether a quarterback can thrive in LaFleur’s system. The Green Bay head coach has made no secret of his desire to copy the 49ers’ model of success: lots of establishing the run, more running, good defense, a little more running, and finally, a dash of running. It’s a copycat league and LaFleur clearly wants the Packers to be the 49ers, not the Chiefs.
Rodgers’ first year in LaFleur’s system was a statistical disappointment: he recorded the second-fewest touchdowns in a 16-game season, his yardage was a career-low, and his completion rate was the second-worst of his career. Rodgers notched less than a fantasy point per game more than Gardner Minshew, who’s being drafted eight rounds later in one-QB leagues and five rounds later in 2-QB formats.
This could very well be a function of the Packers sporting the worst wideout group in recent memory (outside Devante Adams), or it could be a 40-foot neon sign warning of an aging QB’s gradual decline. Lest we forget that Rodgers’s 2018 was equally disastrous for fantasy purposes. Take a look at some key indicators of quarterback efficiency starting in 2015, which could reasonably be identified as the beginning of the slide.
| Season | TD Rate | Adjusted Yards/Att. | Adjusted Net Yards/Att. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 5.4% | 7.1 | 6.10 |
| 2016 | 6.6% | 8.1 | 7.24 |
| 2017 | 6.6% | 7.2 | 5.99 |
| 2018 | 4.2% | 8.1 | 6.96 |
| 2019 | 4.6% | 7.6 | 6.71 |
The fluctuation in touchdown rate over these five seasons might let one convince oneself that Rodgers has positive touchdown regression coming in 2020. But with the Packers’ offensive philosophy, the team’s refusal to upgrade its pass catchers, and Rodgers’s failure to hit his career touchdown rate (6%) in three of the past five seasons, I have some doubts about his rate climbing back to 6%. Obviously we can forget about the halcyon days of Rodgers’ 9% touchdown rate. Those are dead and gone.
Maybe Rodgers’ decline is a combination of both his pass catchers and his age. Either way, Rodgers’ opportunity didn’t tank in 2019—he threw 569 passes, the fourth most attempts of his career in his eight full seasons.
Aaron Rodgers's 2020 Outlook
Rodgers, according to Fantasy Football Calculator, is going just after Tom Brady and just before Josh Allen. Brady is at the helm of a loaded Tampa offense with the best crew of pass-catchers in his 69-year career, while Allen’s rushing prowess offers fantasy managers a pumped up weekly floor even though he’s in a hyper-conservative offense. Meanwhile, Rodgers will be throwing to receivers not named Adams who couldn’t make the roster of half the teams in the league.
I, for one, couldn’t talk myself into rolling with Rodgers over either Allen or Brady. I’d have a tough time taking Rodgers over guys like Matthew Stafford and Carson Wentz, who are going about a round and a half after the Packers signal-caller.
Rodgers makes for a solid if unremarkable pick in Superflex leagues if he falls below his third-round ADP, which is somehow ahead of Drew Brees and Matt Ryan. Fantasy drafters are still treating Rodgers as if the gaudy statistical days of the Obama presidency (sorry to get political) are right around the corner, ready for a comeback. That’s quite the story to tell oneself—an epic tale, no doubt.
The Bottom Line
The 4for4 ADP Bargain tool is less than kind to Rodgers in 2020 drafts. Only six players are being more overdrafted this summer, even with Rodgers’ composite ADP of QB13 in one-QB leagues. I never discount a player because everyone is a value pick at some point in the draft, but betting on Rodgers’ continued decline is fine by me in 2020.
