Monkey Knife Fight Plays: Week 1

Despite 2020 largely being a black hole of sadness, we are now seeing the light. There are few feelings better than watching football, and Thursday's Texans@Chiefs matchup was no different. While we wait for the first full slate of action on Sunday, there is a full slate of props over at Monkey Knife Fight (MKF) we can dig in to!

Editor's Note: Open a new MKF account and deposit at least $10 to get a free 4for4 subscription of your choice.

If you're unaware of MKF, check out my introductory article on the platform.

A quick refresher on their contest offerings:

• Rapidfire - You will be selecting your team by choosing the highest-scoring player in multiple head-to-head matchups in statistical categories. They will need to beat the unchosen players in their head-to-head matchups. If a player gets additional points added to their score in a matchup, they will be shown in green (ex: +14.5). Choose the coinciding posted number of matchups correctly to win the prize shown prior to entry.
• More or Less - You will be drafting your team by choosing More or Less for a group of player statistics presented. You will be squaring off with your own predictions. Choose the coinciding number of tiers correctly to win the prize shown prior to entry.

I plan on approaching these MKF plays like my player props: Establish a bankroll and unit size you want to risk on each play. Put the same amount for each play (also known as a “unit”) unless stated otherwise. Let's get to it!

Editor's Note: Due to late offseason transactions, some contests were removed from MKF offerings, forcing us to remove some of our recommended picks. In the future, this article will feature more contest write-ups.

More or Less: Washington vs. Eagles

• Terry McLaurin OVER 70.5 Receiving Yards
• Zach Ertz UNDER 5.5 Receptions

I know most median projections will have McLaurin under 70 yards, however, he had Philly’s number last year. The Washington receiver recorded games of 130 and 125 yards in their two meetings last season. Washington's offense could also take a step forward with pass-friendly offensive coordinator Scott Turner and head coach Ron Rivera leading the charge. McLaurin vs. CB Darius Slay has been a big storyline in the WR/CB matchup community, but at this point, I think McLaurin is talented enough to take on even the best shadow corners. Seventy yards is a lot but I’m comfortable taking a ride in the F1 McLaurin and playing the over.

Ertz finished with five receptions in both outings against the Washington Football Team last year. He now faces stiffer target competition. DeSean Jackson and Jalen Reagor will both be playing, in addition to Dallas Goedert. We have Ertz projected for a very fair 4.8 receptions. This game also projects to be lower scoring with a total sitting at just 42.5 points. Washington has a massive advantage in the trenches and should realistically give Philadelphia's offense a lot of trouble up front.

Risk: 1 Unit to Win 2.5 Units

Rapidfire: Bills vs. Jets

• Josh Allen: 16.5-or-more passing yards than Sam Darnold.
• Jamison Crowder: more receptions than Stefon Diggs.
• Le'Veon Bell: 3.5-or-more rushing yards than Devin Singletary.

All three of these have to happen to win, which means it’s less likely than some of the other plays we discussed earlier. The good part is we also win more when it hits.

We have Josh Allen projected for 21 more passing yards than Darnold. For me, this is more of how poorly I expect Darnold to play. The Jets have five new offensive linemen and their starting receivers are expected to be Jamison Crowder, Chris Hogan and a limited Breshad Perriman. Darnold threw for 175 and 199 yards in two outings against a similar Buffalo defense last year. I’m banking on the ghosts from Darnold’s nightmares to return in this one.

Along the same lines, Jamison Crowder saw 27 targets in two games against the Bills last season. He is very likely to lead the team in targets and could see close to double-digit targets here. We have Crowder projected for a modest 5.2 receptions, while Diggs is projected for 4.8 receptions. When we factor in the expected game script (Bills are 6.5-point favorites), it’s fair to expect the Jets will be throwing more than the Bills. It likely won’t be very productive but should lead to a few more receptions underneath.

I don’t love the matchup for Le'Veon Bell but he should see more volume than Singletary. There have been rumors of Zack Moss playing a much bigger role than many are expecting—at the minimum, there will be a rotation. This is the closest one of the three but I still lean Bell in this situation.

Risk: 1 Unit to Win 4 Units

100-1 Long Shot

Who doesn’t love a good long shot? At 100-I you could certainly do worse. Note, all of these need to hit to win, but a successful result will mean we will be in the green for the whole season. I’ll be risking a quarter unit on these selections:

• Matt Ryan Over 290.5 passing yards
• Matthew Stafford Over 272.5 passing yards
• Russell Wilson Over 269.5 passing yards
• Derek Carr Over 268.5 passing yards
• Teddy Bridgewater Over 263.5 passing yards
• Aaron Rodgers Under 254.5 passing yards
• Carson Wentz Under 253.5 pass yards
• Kirk Cousins Under 250.5 yards

I'll keep track of our total units each week and recap how our picks did! If you have any questions feel free to send me a message on twitter @ConnorAllenNFL