NFL Week 13 Lookahead Lines

Nov 27, 2020

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NFL Week 12 has been interesting, with both the Houston Texans and Washington Football Team deep-frying their opponents, along with the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers being moved to Tuesday Night Football. Make sure to check your books to see if your Steelers-Ravens tickets (props and all) are voided or still alive. If you have any type of futures tickets with these teams (or any teams who might miss games because of COVID), these tickets must have 16 games played for season win totals. If you played a team to make the playoffs, the 7-team format must be played, not eight! Lines referenced below can be found on FanDuel. On to Week 13...

Raiders @ Jets +8

I know a few weeks ago I wrote I wouldn't mention the New York Jets unless we're getting value. Guess what? We're getting value. Yes, the Jets haven’t won a game and the Raiders got a moral victory in Week 11 against the Chiefs by almost winning. The Raiders aren’t that good to be laying a touchdown-plus in this game. The Jets are healthy at receiver for the second time this season, with the first time being last week. In Week 11, the Jets put up 26 points against a weak Chargers defense (the Chargers' punter ran out of bounds for a safety to run clock at the end of the game). The Raiders' pass defense is still a liability—they rank 21st in QB success rate allowed, or 28th in NumberFire's Passing NEP/Dropback. The Jets will be able to pass all over this team. Lastly, Sam Darnold is an upgrade over the immobile Joe Flacco. At a spread of +8, I will take the Jets here over a Raiders team more interested in winning instead of covering. The Raiders are offering a massive backdoor cover opportunity with a spread this large.

Pick: Jets +8

Colts @ Texans +3

A nice divisional rivalry with the Colts getting the short end of the stick twice in this bad scheduling spot. The Colts will now have to face the same opponent twice in a three-week timespan for the second time this season. The Texans are riding high with Deshaun Watson, who is on fire right now, versus a Colts team who will struggle a bit against the Titans because they are missing key defenders DeForest Buckner, Denico Autry, and Bobby Okereke. All key defenders who helped limit the Titans' offense in Week 10. This is a simple handicap—the Colts aren’t that good to be laying three points on the road versus a Texans team who is in a groove. This line should be closer to a Colts pick’em game but we are getting a nice +3. FanDuel offers six-point teasers for -120—big fan of Texans +9 and Jets +14.

Pick: Texans +3

Eagles @ Packers -7.5

The Seahawks play the Eagles in Week 12. I don’t expect much out of the Eagles, who will face the Packers in Week 13, coming off a Monday Night game. The Eagles lost another player for the season in Lane Johnson. When do the Packers perform well? When playing inferior opponents. The Packers thrive against weaker competition (when we don't factor in extreme weather conditions). If the Packers can pass the ball in this game, they will move up and down on the Eagles' defense. Carson Wentz hasn’t looked good at all this year, ranking bottom-six in CPOE. Wentz is in Joe Flacco/Lamar Jackson/Matthew Stafford/Jimmy Garoppolo territory. This line will close closer to 10 than seven. You can also tease the Packers down to -1.5, with one of the two teams above.

Pick: Packers -7.5