Monkey Knife Fight Plays: Week 16

Week 15 Recap: It wound up being another really strong week for us, as we hit on 8-of-10 recommendations. Looking at our two losses, Jordan Akins totaled five receptions, busting our under on his 3.5 reception line. D.J. Moore’s 4.5 reception line had me tilting. He was sitting on four receptions for almost the entire second half. Then he caught two passes on the last drive. Absolutely brutal. Either way, there were plenty of edges on our other plays.

For those reading this column for the first time, we scrape Monkey Knife Fight’s contests against our projections. I'll go through 10 plays we feel confident in exceeding (More Than) or failing to reach (Less Than) MKF's projections by the percent likelihood we give the outcome. The percentage you see in parentheses next to each player's name is the chance we believe the More Than or Less Than hits, according to our projections.

Most of our recommendations will be to side with the Less Than on MKF, as they know the majority of fantasy players like to root for more of everything—more points, more yards, more receptions, etc.—and set their numbers higher than a normal median projection. Be sure to check out our Discord server and the #mkf channel where I’ll post the full list of how our projections stack up against those of Monkey Knife Fight.

Before we dive in, a quick More or Less refresher:

More or Less - You will be drafting your team by choosing More or Less for a group of player statistics presented. You will be squaring off with your own predictions. Choose the coinciding number of tiers correctly to win the prize shown prior to entry.

Week 16 Saturday MKF Specials

This article will focus on the three-game Saturday slate.

T.J. Hockenson, TE – Lions (75.0%)

• MKF Line: 5.5 receptions
• 4for4 Projection: 4.3 receptions

T.J. Hockenson has cleared 5.5 receptions in just 3-of-14 games this season. Monkey Knife Fight is significantly adjusting the number for Hockenson because Kenny Golladay is out. In reality, Hockenson has only averaged 4.4 receptions without Golladay in the lineup—0.44 bump. That shouldn’t be enough to list his prop at 5.5 receptions.

Hunter Renfrow, WR – Raiders (71.4%)

• MKF Line: 3.5 receptions
• 4for4 Projection: 2.6 receptions

Hunter Renfrow played just 17% of the snaps last week due to a concussion in the second half. He's been limited all week, making his role unclear. With marginal practice time and only hitting this reception line 50% of the time this season, I’m comfortable with riding the Less Than here.

C.J. Beathard, QB – 49ers (71.3%)

• MKF Line: 209.5 passing yards
• 4for4 Projection: 260.2 passing yards

C.J. Beathard has more than 209.5 passing yards in 6-of-10 career starts. The Cardinals are ranked 15th in per dropback EPA over the past seven weeks, and 20th in passing success rate on the season. This is a largely middle-of-the-road matchup.

Kenyan Drake, RB – Cardinals (67.8%)

• MKF Line: 64.5 rushing yards
• 4for4 Projection: 54.8 rushing yards

Kenyan Drake has gone under this number in 7-of-13 games this year and now squares off against the 49ers. They rank ninth in run defense DVOA, 10th in rushing success rate allowed and eighth in per dropback EPA over the past seven weeks.

Antonio Brown, WR – Buccaneers (65.3%)

• MKF Line: 5.5 receptions
• 4for4 Projection: 5.0 receptions

Antonio Brown has more than five receptions in just 2-of-6 games since becoming a Buccaneer. Unsurprisingly, Brown isn’t the same player he was in Pittsburgh and he also isn’t being targeted nearly as frequently. Five-or-fewer receptions is the more likely outcome here.

Danny Amendola, WR – Lions (65.3%)

• MKF Line: 3.5 receptions
• 4for4 Projection: 2.9 receptions

While Danny Amendola averages 4.44 receptions without Golladay, the average is skewed by a 7-reception game in Week 9 and a 6-reception game in Week 14. Amendola has gone under 3.5 receptions in 4-of-7 games without Golladay, so three receptions or fewer is the better side here.

Kendrick Bourne, WR – 49ers (65.3%)

• MKF Line: 3.5 receptions
• 4for4 Projection: 2.9 receptions

This is a bit of a tough sell without Deebo Samuel but a lot of the same splits also didn’t have Brandon Aiyuk, making it a bit noisy. I trust our projections here and side with the Less Than.

Jeff Wilson Jr., RB – 49ers (62.3%)

• MKF Line: 54.5 rushing yards
• 4for4 Projection: 74.2 rushing yards

Raheem Mostert is out, leaving Jeff Wilson Jr. as the likely lead back. Wilson has been playing extremely well as of late and should be utilized as the primary runner. There is always a concern about Shannahanigans but this number is low enough that Wilson doesn’t have to be the bell cow to smash.

Mike Gesicki, TE – Dolphins (62.2%)

• MKF Line: 3.5 receptions
• 4for4 Projection: 3.1 receptions

Mike Gesicki has more than 3.5 receptions in just 5-of-13 games this season. Although he has been on a tear lately with nine and five receptions, respectively, the past two weeks, his usage may be a little fluky when looking at his season-long stats as a whole.

Nelson Agholor, WR – Raiders (61.1%)

• MKF Line: 4.5 receptions
• 4for4 Projection: 4.2 receptions

Nelson Agholor has more than four receptions in just 4-of-14 games this season (with a season-high of six). Even in an expanded role lately, he has caught no more than five receptions in each of the past four weeks.

Editor's Note: The More or Less plays and projections were available at the time of this article being published. Please refer to MKF for the most up-to-date offerings.