NBA Player Prop Bets: Underestimating Steph Curry is a Bad Idea
We are blessed with a compelling 11-game slate to kick off the second half of the NBA season. Only two weeks remain before the NBA trade deadline, meaning we have a lot of excitement ahead of us. With plenty of games and props to pick from, let’s take a deeper look at three of my favorite player props for tonight.
Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.
DraftKings Player Prop Bets (March 11, 2021)
Bruce Brown Jr. Under 12.5 Points (-121)
If you follow my Twitter account, you are aware of my slight love affair for Bruce Brown Jr. Known for his defensive prowess, Brown Jr. has been on an offensive tear (18 points per game on 67.7/50/78.9 splits) over the six games before the All-Star break. Brown Jr. has a career average of 6.8 points per game on 45.9/29.7/73.7 splits. At some point, Brown Jr. is destined to come back to earth.
Boston welcomes the return of Marcus Smart, after an 18-game absence, which bodes well not only for their on-ball defense but especially their team defense. As Smart put it, “I just want us to forget about that first half. We have an opportunity to come out and start fresh. We can reinvent ourselves on the defensive end. I just want guys to play with the same intensity I do on that end.” This Boston Celtics-Brooklyn Nets matchup holds a total of 234.0 with Brooklyn favored by 3.0 points.
Risk: 1.21 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit.
Steph Curry Over 5.5 Assists (-121)
Draymond Green has been assisting at a career-high pace (8.6 assists per game) and I think this granted Steph Curry a juicy prop opportunity in tonight’s Golden State Warriors-Los Angeles Clippers matchup. The Clippers will likely want to force the ball out of Curry’s hands early, which should result in Curry being the main distributor in this late-night showdown.
Curry is averaging 6.3 assists per game which puts this prop under his season average. Additionally, Curry has only failed to register six or more assists in one of his last eight contests. Steve Kerr’s offense is based heavily on player and ball movement, resulting in the Warriors leading the league in assists at 27.8 per game. This matchup features a total of 231.5 with Los Angeles favored by 7.5 points.
Risk: 1.21 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit.
William Hill Player Prop Bets (March 11, 2021)
Nikola Vucevic Under 27.5 Points (-125)
Tonight’s matchup between the Miami Heat-Orlando Magic showcases two teams who struggled offensively over the first half of the season. Both teams are in the bottom half of the league in the following categories: Pace, Effective Field Goal Percentage and Offensive Rating. This matchup has a total of 214.5 points with Miami favored by 6.5 points.
Rumors have been swirling around the Heat’s interest to acquire Nikola Vucevic and pair him in the frontcourt with Bam Adebayo. To note, Vucevic has posted numbers under his average when facing off against Miami. In 30 career games against Miami, he has averaged 17.8 points per game—that number bumped up to 19.0 PPG in his four contests against them last season.
With Adebayo declared out for this game, that moves Kelly Olynyk into a starting role, which will be a relief for Vucevic. However, Miami prides itself on the defensive end (9th overall in Defensive Rating) and will certainly have their attention on containing Orlando’s All-Star.
Risk: 1.25 units on William Hill to win 1 unit.
For the most up-to-date picks check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.
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