NBA Best Bets: Another Ride With the Cavaliers
Happy Monday! Cleveland took care of business for us yesterday, but a 75-point second quarter sunk our fist half under in Oklahoma City's upset of the Houston Rockets. I know we have Monday March Madness for the first time ever, but the Association never sleeps. There are eight games tonight—plenty of opportunities to find some value in the betting markets. Also, if you didn't know, we have an NBA Player Prop Tool that identifies the highest-value props in the NBA every night.
Projections for March 22, 2021
| Projection Based on Last 10 Games | Baseline Projection | Odds | ROI Season to Date | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road Streak | Back to Back? | 3rd Game in 4 Days? | Offensive Rating | Pace | Team | Spread & Total | EFG% | TO% | OREB% | FT Rate | Oliver % | OFF Rtg | Pace | Team | Spread & Total | EFG% | TO% | OREB% | FT Rate | Oliver % | Spread | Total | Team Total | Opener Spread Units | Closer Spread Units | Opener Over Units | Closer Over Units | |||
| SAC | 5 | No | Yes | 110.62 | 101.70 | 112.50 | 0.58 | 53.6% | 11.4% | 48.8% | 19.7% | 37.0% | SAC | 110.05 | 102.11 | 112.36 | 0.79 | 53.6% | 11.6% | 46.1% | 19.3% | 36.5% | SAC | -4 | 225 | 114.5 | (5.73) | (7.64) | 7.64 | 7.64 |
| CLE | 0 | Yes | Yes | 111.47 | 101.44 | 113.08 | 225.58 | 55.2% | 13.4% | 47.6% | 22.1% | 38.3% | CLE | 111.40 | 101.58 | 113.15 | 225.51 | 55.3% | 13.6% | 45.9% | 22.0% | 38.0% | CLE | 110.5 | (5.73) | (9.55) | (1.91) | (6.64) | ||
| OKC | 3 | Yes | No | 106.11 | 101.34 | 107.53 | 3.52 | 52.1% | 12.4% | 46.0% | 17.9% | 35.8% | OKC | 106.01 | 102.00 | 108.12 | 1.18 | 52.5% | 12.6% | 42.8% | 18.4% | 35.5% | OKC | 2 | 226.5 | 112.25 | 1.91 | 1.91 | (3.82) | (3.73) |
| MIN | 3 | No | No | 106.94 | 103.84 | 111.05 | 218.58 | 53.2% | 12.1% | 50.2% | 21.0% | 37.5% | MIN | 105.38 | 103.72 | 109.31 | 217.43 | 52.1% | 12.2% | 46.8% | 20.1% | 36.3% | MIN | 114.25 | (6.64) | (8.55) | 1.91 | - | ||
| CHA | 3 | No | No | 109.50 | 102.79 | 112.56 | (0.79) | 53.8% | 13.0% | 46.6% | 20.4% | 37.2% | CHA | 109.28 | 102.85 | 112.39 | (0.83) | 54.0% | 13.0% | 44.5% | 19.7% | 36.7% | CHA | 5.5 | 225 | 109.75 | 1.00 | (0.91) | (1.82) | 0.09 |
| SAS | 5 | No | Yes | 110.41 | 101.23 | 111.77 | 224.32 | 55.2% | 12.2% | 46.3% | 17.3% | 37.0% | SAS | 109.57 | 101.82 | 111.55 | 223.94 | 54.7% | 12.2% | 43.2% | 17.8% | 36.2% | SAS | 115.25 | 4.91 | 5.91 | (4.64) | (4.64) | ||
| BOS | 0 | Yes | Yes | 108.98 | 101.36 | 110.46 | 2.28 | 54.2% | 12.7% | 51.4% | 20.4% | 38.2% | BOS | 108.73 | 101.68 | 110.55 | 1.64 | 54.0% | 12.7% | 48.0% | 20.1% | 37.4% | BOS | 1.5 | 221.5 | 110 | (5.73) | (5.73) | - | - |
| MEM | 0 | No | Yes | 108.89 | 103.53 | 112.74 | 223.20 | 52.4% | 11.5% | 47.6% | 21.3% | 36.5% | MEM | 108.60 | 103.30 | 112.19 | 222.74 | 52.4% | 11.7% | 45.2% | 21.1% | 36.1% | MEM | 111.5 | 2.00 | 1.09 | (9.45) | (8.45) | ||
| IND | 2 | Yes | Yes | 107.05 | 104.15 | 111.48 | 4.33 | 53.8% | 12.4% | 47.5% | 15.6% | 36.5% | IND | 104.65 | 102.88 | 107.70 | 3.77 | 52.4% | 13.1% | 44.0% | 15.6% | 35.4% | IND | 5.5 | 228.5 | 111.5 | (9.45) | (8.55) | 10.55 | 5.82 |
| MIL | 0 | No | No | 110.51 | 104.80 | 115.82 | 227.30 | 55.2% | 13.3% | 45.7% | 20.1% | 37.6% | MIL | 108.50 | 102.68 | 111.47 | 219.17 | 54.1% | 13.6% | 44.3% | 19.5% | 36.8% | MIL | 117 | (6.64) | (4.73) | 7.73 | 4.82 | ||
| TOR | 1 | Yes | Yes | 108.93 | 103.00 | 112.20 | (1.51) | 53.2% | 12.5% | 43.1% | 20.2% | 36.1% | TOR | 108.47 | 103.08 | 111.81 | (1.50) | 53.1% | 12.5% | 41.4% | 19.7% | 35.6% | TOR | -8.5 | 223.5 | 116 | (5.73) | (5.73) | (1.91) | 2.91 |
| HOU | 0 | Yes | Yes | 107.33 | 103.13 | 110.69 | 222.89 | 54.5% | 14.3% | 43.0% | 24.7% | 37.7% | HOU | 106.83 | 103.26 | 110.31 | 222.12 | 54.1% | 14.3% | 41.0% | 24.1% | 37.0% | HOU | 107.5 | (17.18) | (16.18) | (9.55) | (10.45) | ||
| UTA | 4 | No | No | 111.95 | 101.21 | 113.30 | (7.80) | 55.0% | 11.1% | 50.6% | 19.1% | 37.7% | UTA | 111.66 | 101.72 | 113.57 | (6.00) | 55.3% | 11.8% | 47.4% | 19.3% | 37.5% | UTA | -9.5 | 230.5 | 120 | 11.45 | 10.55 | (1.91) | (2.82) |
| CHI | 2 | Yes | Yes | 104.58 | 100.88 | 105.50 | 218.80 | 52.9% | 13.6% | 46.3% | 14.5% | 36.0% | CHI | 105.50 | 101.95 | 107.58 | 221.15 | 53.0% | 13.2% | 43.7% | 15.7% | 35.6% | CHI | 110.5 | 4.82 | 3.91 | (0.91) | (0.91) | ||
| ATL | 1 | No | No | 107.95 | 99.06 | 106.94 | 0.20 | 52.9% | 11.6% | 53.1% | 18.5% | 37.4% | ATL | 107.89 | 100.13 | 108.03 | 2.17 | 53.1% | 12.0% | 49.7% | 19.2% | 37.1% | ATL | 6 | 224.5 | 109.25 | (1.00) | - | (6.73) | (7.64) |
| LAC | 0 | No | No | 106.81 | 100.30 | 107.13 | 214.07 | 51.9% | 11.7% | 44.8% | 17.9% | 35.3% | LAC | 109.21 | 100.89 | 110.20 | 218.23 | 53.2% | 11.8% | 43.3% | 18.8% | 35.7% | LAC | 115.25 | 0.91 | 0.91 | (1.00) | 1.00 | ||
LEGEND
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EFG% (Effective Field Goal Percentage)= (FG + 0.5 * 3P)/FGA
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TOV% (Turnover Percentage) = TOV/(FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TOV)
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OREB% = ORB / (ORB + Opp DRB)
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FT Rate = FT/FGA
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Oliver % = Shooting (40%) + Turnovers (25%) + Rebounding (20%) + Free Throws (15%)
Best NBA Bets of the Day (March 22, 2021)
Cleveland Cavaliers +4 vs. Sacramento Kings
The Cavaliers are only missing Kevin Love and Andre Drummond, who are both likely done playing games in Cleveland jerseys. Sacramento is missing Marvin Bagley III. Both teams are playing their third game in four nights, but Cleveland is on a back-to-back after beating the Raptors last night. Sacramento is in the last game of a six-game road trip.
Another day and another wager on the Cavaliers. The schedule spot isn’t ideal, but the back-to-back games are both home games, which lessens the impact. My projections have Cleveland favored here, so taking the four points sounds great to me. The Cavaliers are better at home and Sacramento is looking forward to going home. I also like the Cleveland roster better from top to bottom. Collin Sexton is having a great season and having Darius Garland back only helps. Between Jarrett Allen and JaVale McGee, they have 48 minutes of rim protection. I’m going to sprinkle a little on the Moneyline, but the spread is the better wager.
Risk: 1.1 units on Cleveland Cavaliers +4 on DraftKings to win 1 unit.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves Game Total Under 227 Points
Minnesota is missing Malik Beasley and D'Angelo Russell, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Al Horford are questionable for the Thunder. Oklahoma City is on a back-to-back, but Minnesota should be rested.
With all those players out, we’re left with little scoring talent, especially on the Thunder side. I have the total at under 220 points, which might be a bit of an over adjustment for the injuries, but it’s still a nice edge if I tweak those down a little. Totals are mostly about pace and both of these teams have seen their pace slow the last few weeks. There’s a lot of factors pointing towards the under and that’s before we consider the men in grey jerseys with the whistles. There is a small part of me that hates the idea of an under when Karl-Anthony Towns is playing, but everything else is pointing to a low-scoring night.
Risk: 1.1 units on Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves Under 227 Points on FanDuel to win 1 unit
Quick Slate Rundown (March 22, 2021)
*All lines are from FanDuel at the time of publication.
Charlotte Hornets +5.5 at San Antonio Spurs
This will be Charlotte’s first game without LaMelo Ball, so disregard my projections that have the Hornets as small favorites. One of their biggest advantages was always being able to have a creator like Ball or Gordon Hayward on the floor. They have the depth to fill in his minutes adequately which is why I won’t be laying the points with the favorite, but it’s Spurs or pass.
Boston Celtics +1.5 at Memphis Grizzlies
This number is right on my projection. Both teams are very talented but have struggled mightily to find any sort of rhythm or consistency this season. Boston dismantled Memphis earlier this year, but that was without Ja Morant. I might watch this one for some tape study, but no way am I wagering on it.
Indiana Pacers +5.5 at Milwaukee Bucks
Indiana is on a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights and playing in the last leg of a road trip. It’s just an awful schedule spot for the Pacers. Even with Giannis Antetokounmpo out, I can’t bring myself to bet Indiana.
Toronto Raptors -8.5 at Houston Rockets
The Houston Rockets appear to have given up on this season. To lose to the Oklahoma City Thunder, who were missing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Al Horford, is embarrassing. The move here is likely to lay the points with Toronto, but the number is too big for me to back a Raptors team just getting used to having all their players on the floor.
Utah Jazz -9.5 at Chicago Bulls
The Jazz opened -8 last night which might have been playable, but we’re on our way to -10 which is too many points to lay. Utah is on the last game of their road trip—generally a low spot for teams. The Bulls are on a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights, so it’s no picnic for them either. My projections show value on the Bulls and I would bet them if I had to bet something, but I don’t have to bet anything and neither do you.
Los Angeles Clippers -6 vs. Atlanta Hawks
At first glance, I was ready to back the Clippers at what looks to be a short number, but my projections actually have it closer than six points. Trae Young is probable and De'Andre Hunter is questionable, likely pushing the line out to six. I still lean the Clippers, but there’s likely no value in laying the six points.
For the most up-to-date picks check out my Twitter or subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.
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