Jake's DK Top Plays and Best Bets for the Valero Texas Open

Apr 02, 2025

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Every week on Wednesday afternoons, I’ll be posting a few of my favorite DraftKings plays in this article with brief write-ups of each player. I will also include some of my “best bets” for the week as well. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward. I’ll include my top plays from the week prior, their DK Price, where they finished on the leaderboard, and how many DK points they scored. This article will be FREE every week, but with access to a 4for4 betting sub, you will get access to our discord and all of our bets (PGA + other sports).

Houston Open Recap:

Another week, another play-of-the-week smash. Taylor Pendrith (POTW) played amazingly and has seemingly found his way on the greens right in time for the Masters. Rory had a lackluster opening round, so he was never truly in contention, but a T5 finish is good enough. Griffin had his worst tournament putting since the Open last season, but still finished T18 and put up a lot of DK points. Our only missed cut was Nicolai. Nicolai came into this tournament with strong form with his irons. Unfortunately, those inform irons vanished, and he struggled with his approach game big time (his worst tournament since Oct. 2024), and he wasn’t even close to making the cut.

Valero Texas Open Rabbit Hole Model (see below for Top 40 in my model):

Using promo code: JAKE10 you will get your first month $10 (regularly $29.99).

With a BetSperts subscription, you will have full access to my model as well as Ryan Noonan's, Ron Klos’, and others every week. You can also create your own model too. You will also get access to the BetSperts discord, where Ron and Ryan release bets as well: Outrights, T5/10/20/40, H2H Matchups, 3Balls, etc.

Feel free to drop a message in the Discord channel or on Twitter with any questions you may have.

My Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:

SG: T2G / BS - Last 20 rounds (recent form)
SG: APP - Last 50 rounds (Gain APP difficult & very difficult)
DFEF (Distance from edge of fairway) - fairway accuracy average & difficult
GIR % - Last 18 months (GIR % accuracy difficult)
Bogey Avoidance % (Last 50 rounds; GIR % Difficult)

Valero Texas Open DraftKings Top Plays (DK Price, Outright Odds, Model Rank)

Corey Conners, $10.1K, +16/1 Widely Available, 3rd in model

Key Stats:

3rd in SG:APP (L18 Months Gain APP Difficult/Very Difficult)
2nd in Bogey AVD % (L50 Rounds GIR % Difficult)
36th in SG:P (L30 Rounds)
4th in SG:OTT (L30 Rounds Gain OTT Average/Difficult/Very Difficult)

Conners has been a premier ball striker on tour for years, but was held back by his play on and around the greens. Despite his short game struggles, both of his tour victories have come at TPC San Antonio, and his once mediocre short game has improved a lot. Conners has three straight Top 10s and looks to win at a course that he is very familiar with.

Bud Cauley, $8.3K, +55/1 FD, 2nd in model

Key Stats:

5th in SG:BS (L50 Rounds GIR % Accuracy Average/Difficult)
18th in SG:P (L30 Rounds)
15th in GIR % (L18 Months GIR % Accuracy Difficult)
10th in ARG Prox (L50 Rounds Gain ARG Easy/Average/Difficult)

Cauley has no weakness in his game, which is shown in the key stats above. At a course like TPC San Antonio, to have success, a golfer has to be sharp with their irons, have no errant misses OTT, and possess a short game good enough to save par when a GIR is missed; Cauley checks all boxes. Cauley is playing the best golf possibly of his career right now, hot off a T4 finish at the Valspar and a T6 finish at the PLAYERS.

Tom Kim, $8.4K, +45/1 FD, 21st in model

Key Stats:

4th in SG:APP (L20 Rounds)
3rd in DFEF (L50 Rounds Fairway Accuracy Average/Difficult)
3rd in SG:BS (L50 Rounds GIR Accuracy Average/Difficult)
13th in SG:T2G (L50 Rounds Fwy Acc Average/Difficult & Rough Penalty Low/Average)

Tom Kim is a historically average putter, but he has been one of the worst on tour this season. Despite his struggles on the green, Kim has struck the ball amazingly, gaining strokes with his irons in all eight tournaments this year. TPC San Antonio statistically has some of the easiest putting inside of 15-20 ft. I am hoping for some regression to the mean on the greens, and if Kim’s irons remain hot, he should be able to finish very well here.

Victor Perez $7.1K, +100/1 ESPN/FD, 10th in model

Key Stats:

7th in SG:APP (L18 Months Gain APP Difficult/Very Difficult)
6th in Good Drive % (L50 Rounds Fwy Acc Average/Difficult & Rough Penalty Low/Average)
14th in Bogey Avoidance % (L18 Months GIR % Accuracy Difficult)
6th in GIR % (L6 Months Gain APP Average/Difficult/Very Difficult)

Perez has logged three straight Top 25s in a row coming into this week and looks to keep the streak alive at a course that should fit his game. Perez has a solid golf game, with his strength mainly being his irons. TPC San Antonio is as big of a second-shot course as there is, and that should fit his game. Perez has logged back-to-back weeks gaining strokes with his putter (something he struggled to do at the beginning of the season), which is a good sign for future success. In tournaments, Perez has gained even as low as 0.01 strokes putting a round; he has made the cut in all of them dating back to June 2023.

PLAY OF THE WEEK: Tom Kim

Betting Recap (last week and season):

Houston Open: 1-2, +$20
Overall: 9-15, $551
34.67% ROI

Assumes betting to win $100 on a minus odds prop and risking $100 on a plus odds prop. On outrights and longshot bets, tracking TO WIN $100

72-Hole Matchup Bets this week:

Ben Griffin > Gary Woodland -130 DK, -140 FD

Hideki Matsuyama > Jordan Spieth -125 DK/FD

Make sure to join Discord to get the rest of the bets for this week!

4for4 Additional Info:

Be sure to be in the 4for4 Discord, as I may push out additional plays that are not in the article, or there may be some odds movement on some of the bets. The best way to get access to the bets as they are released is to join our subscriber-only Discord. All of our staff’s plays are released there, and that is the best way to guarantee you get the original line we post. Join the Discord to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team. Go to Channels & Roles and customize your Discord experience.

You can join our Discord for free here! Make sure to add the PGA-Betting Channel to your channel list and turn on alerts for @Staff_Golf_Plays to get notifications for the bets as they are released.

For more betting content and takeaways, check out my Twitter (@JakeLotenberg2) and subscribe to our Discord. I’ll be tracking my best bet results at the end of each week and updating the article accordingly the following week.

This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.