NBA Player Prop Bets: Everything Over Easy

We are blessed with Game 1 of the Los Angeles Clippers-Utah Jazz series as well as Game 2 of the Atlanta Hawks-Philadelphia 76ers matchup in tonight's two-game slate. These games come with plenty of question marks, so let’s dive into the details to see where the value lies in today’s NBA Player Prop bets. Remember, the quickest way to scout value in today’s landscape is with the 4for4’s NBA Player Prop Tool, check it out!

*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.

FanDuel Player Prop Bets (June 8, 2021)

Tobias Harris Over 7.5 Rebounds (-128)

The leading rebounder for the Philadelphia 76ers thus far in the playoffs, Tobias Harris, is averaging 10 rebounds per game. He's recorded less than nine rebounds only once on six occasions. Harris has been corralling 27.8 percent of Philadelphia’s defensive rebounds. This matchup features a point total of 223.0, which favors Philly by 5.0, giving Atlanta an implied total of 109.0. Atlanta is currently shooting 45.5% from the field over the playoffs, ranking them 12th out of 16 eligible teams.

With Joel Embiid questionable, Doc Rivers has chosen to typically slide Ben Simmons to a big position and elected for more small-ball. Avoiding a lineup with Dwight Howard and Simmons on the court seems like an intelligent decision. Either decision has bumped Harris’s defensive and total rebounding rates up from his regular-season production. This is displayed in the chart below, comparing rebound rates and opportunities in regular-season versus postseason play. As you can see, this trend is consistent over the past three seasons.

Risk: 1.28 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit.

Bogdan Bogdanovic Over 3.5 Assists (104)

Totaling 24 assists through the first six games of the playoffs places Bogdan Bogdanovic solely as the number two distributor for the Atlanta Hawks. Averaging 4.0 assists per game equates to 22.6% of the teams’ assists thus far. Bogdan has covered this prop in three consecutive contests, producing assist totals of five, five, and six, respectively. Seeing 35.7 minutes per game has led to 7.2 potential assists, which leaves plenty of opportunity for this over to hit.

Another factor in favor of Bogdanovic's opportunity is Atlanta’s star and primary ball-handler, Trae Young. Over the playoffs, Young ranks fourth in terms of usage rate at 34.1%. With decisions often in his hands, he’s elected to pass to Bogdanovic significantly more than any other teammate with a pass frequency of 27.2%. With odds in our favor and the Hawks coming off a hot shooting night and looking to put Philadelphia on the ropes before heading back home, I love this prop’s chances tonight.

Risk: 1 unit on FanDuel to win 1.04 units

Jordan Clarkson Over 17.5 Points (100)

In Jordan Clarkson’s last four games against the Clippers, he’s gone for 19, 9, 18, and 19 points, respectively. Over his playoff career as a Utah Jazz reserve, he’s averaged 17.5 points per game over a 12-game span with shooting splits of 43.9/29.7/100. While the field goal and three-point percentages aren’t astounding, he is 31/31 from the free-throw line.

Currently sitting at eighth in terms of usage rate amongst the remaining players in the playoffs, Clarkson has used this opportunity to score 93 points through five games—good for 18.6 points per game. With Mike Conley listed as a game-time decision and the Clippers being loaded with size and length at the guard and wing positions, I expect an extended role for Jordan Clarkson tonight if the Jazz hope to keep up with a red hot Kawhi Leonard.

Risk: 1 unit on FanDuel to win 1 unit.

For the most up-to-date picks check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.